SSDs - State of the Product?

LunarMist

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My 970 Pro is at 83x writes, but that is showing 98% Good. The SSD would have to last for ~4000x writes, when the spec is 1200x. How is that possible?
 

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I don't believe Samsung's tools, either. I was buying 850 Pros for a while that my back of napkin math suggested were getting around .7 DWPD and still showed something like 83% cell life after two years. That also seemed too high to to be trusted.
 

LunarMist

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No, that was with the Crystal. I will try the WD later, but I don't like the spyware part of it.
 

LunarMist

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The WD utility is useless, so I used the Samsung Magician. The results are the same (~41TB) but the Samsung only shows that amount, not as a percentage. I do have a 2TB 850 Pro (2048GB) that cost about $900 over 8 years ago. It has 22x life cycles at 98%, but has not been used in many years. It's probably the most expensive drive of any type I ever purchased other than that disastrous Intel U.2 SSD.
 

LunarMist

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I'm not saying there is anything wrong with the model of drive, just that mine died out quickly. It is quite possile that it was because I was using an M.2 adapter, although I found someone had used that Intel SSD with it and I used it for a couple of weeks. Obviously Intel sold many thousands of the U.2 drives for enterprise use.
 

LunarMist

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I don't recall exacrtly why I did not submit the SSD for an RMA, other than that it contained data. It may not have had an OEM warranty and been past 30 days or maybe I was traveling.

I'm not sure why the Forum prohibits my functions. :(
 
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LunarMist

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There have been a few M.2 8TB TLC such as Sabrent, and now the Corsair is also making one. Despite that the smaller SSDs are less per GB, why are there not more 8TB M.2 SSds? The RocketPus has been going up in price over the past few months.
 

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At a guess, there are more QLC NAND m.2 OEMs are probably looking at their offerings as most appealing to consumers, just as HDD vendors mostly market and sell SMR drives at the consumer level.
 

LunarMist

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I'm not convinced that it is worth $1K or more for 8TB TLC M.2 SSDs when similar 4TB SSDs are under $300. I know that I should get a single 30.72GB U.3, but the whole situation is nerve wracking.
 

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I agree. Perhaps 8 TB is pushing the limits of current technology? I imagine it's easier to manage cooling, reliability and so on in the 3.5/2.5/EDSFF formats.
In the server space M.2 are more common as boot drives where I suppose they see a lot less activity than their carrier mounted friends who are fighting with database loads and whatnot 24/7.
 

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My reasoning for getting proper tri-mode HBAs is that commonplace 2.5" SATA/SAS SSDs definitely top out at 4TB. I can still get 1DWD drives, which I see as a goal of any server drive life cycle. I don't particularly care about the PCIe data transfer rate (is it over 500MB/sec? Then it's fast enough) but I do care about capacity and life cycle. M.2 seems to cater to consumer limitations as well, which means QLC NAND and relatively low capacities. It's cheaper to get an HBA and an 8TB u.2 drive than one of those TLC m.2 guys and as a bonus, it can bring along 7 (or 15) more friends.
 
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LunarMist

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I'm not sure about the DWPD vs. the TBW. For marketing the DWPD makes sense, but is an SSD with twice the capacity and half the DWPD (same TBW) really any worse for example? I see DWPD specified at 128KB sequential and also 4K random. Maybe your server application can use a larger indirection unit to improve the DWPD. For example the 65000 IONS has only 0.3 DWPD at 4K randoms yet 1DWPD at 128K sequential. 0.3 DWPD may seem low, but that is 9TB/day on a 30.72TB drive. How many TB/day are you processing on that system?
 

LunarMist

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I agree. Perhaps 8 TB is pushing the limits of current technology? I imagine it's easier to manage cooling, reliability and so on in the 3.5/2.5/EDSFF formats.
In the server space M.2 are more common as boot drives where I suppose they see a lot less activity than their carrier mounted friends who are fighting with database loads and whatnot 24/7.
M.2 cooling can be an issue when the bottom side of the PCB is populated due to the larger capacities. Cooling should be a lesser issue in general because all the NAND is not active at the same time.
 

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SSD prices fell to historical lows last year. I'm REALLY happy I have a stack of Intel 8TB u.2 drives right now because the supply for those evaporated in late February and I know I can't afford the current generation models.
 

LunarMist

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So about a 25-33% hike for SSDs in general is normal? I recently read that somehow we all need AI computers, and industry must run AI also. I wonder if it is really transformational or partly a scam to sell more SSDS, RAM, video cards, etc.?
 

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DRAM prices can fluctuate in a similar fashion to other memory types. No manufacturer wants their goods at their lowest prices and you must remember other times that we've seen peaks and troughs in that pricing.
 

jtr1962

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I saw prices of commodity SSDs drop to as low as $35/TB last year. Now it seems $45 to $50 is about the best deal you can get. Longer term of course, the trend is still down, as it's been with DRAM.

1713028630842.png
 

LunarMist

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I don't recall new HDDs being $13/TB or $35/TB for SSDs. Are those some low-end web specials or high volume OEM pricing rather than median values?
 

jtr1962

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I don't recall new HDDs being $13/TB or $35/TB for SSDs. Are those some low-end web specials or high volume OEM pricing rather than median values?
I'm guess that's low-end commodity stuff which people on a budget buy. I definitely did see SSDs going for $35/TB last year. I also recall 8TB HDDs going for $100, give or take. If fact, here we go:


$13.75/TB

I'm looking forward to the $5/TB SSDs the chart predicts by 2030.
 

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The 1TB NVME drive I had my eye on at the start of the year spiked from 55 dollars up to 70 recently. Guess I'm waiting a bit longer, even if this laptop desperately cries out for more than 512GB -- games are very rough on storage these days, and I've got a few big-ticket items installed.
 

LunarMist

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The 1TB Hynix Platinum P41 was $78 in January and now is $100.
It's still one of the better drives with a higher TBW than most and a 5-year warranty.
 

sedrosken

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Probably going to end up with a 2TB TeamGroup MP34 or some such. I don't do anything terribly intensive or have archival needs justifying spending 50% more for the same amount of storage at roughly the same speed -- being limited to Gen3x4 speeds makes spending a ton of money on the upgrade inadvisable as I won't likely see a difference anyway.
 

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Heck yeah, that would be nice to eventually seem them on the used market. I assume brand new they'll be super expensive and can't find any details yet on new pricing. I don't think they've officially released them.
 

jtr1962

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I'm sure it falls into the category of "If you have to ask then you can't afford it."

Can't think of a single thing I'd need 14 GB/s speeds for. Even the regular SATA max of ~500 MB/s is plenty for most of what I do, except maybe the rare times I copy a movie or a drive image. That said, with the IOPs on that drive, booting would probably be near instantaneous.
 

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You'll also find that there are very few times when your OS will let you read and write at those kinds of speeds, even when you have optimal conditions like two PCIe 4 drives that aren't doing anything else and 800GB files you need to move between them.

It's like being in my datacenter and knowing that I have a 10Gb upstream connection to equipment that can definitely handle all that speed all the way to a Cogent but absolutely nothing is different about how fast web browsing happens.

A 3GB Linux ISO torrented REAL fast though.
 

LunarMist

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If the total supply of components is constrained, I'm not convinced that the prices will fall all that much. Maybe it will happen sooner if all the AI hoopla dies down.
 

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AI is IMO an "Emperor has no clothes" situation but I suspect that dramatic overvaluations send some of big tech into a huge downturn overall once investors realize that they're falling for another VR or Crypto, with the added understanding that everything they've spent money to get is actively killing the planet as quickly as possible. When the downturn finally hits, everyone is going to get punished, even at companies that have absolutely nothing to do with it.
 

jtr1962

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I'll be happy if AI only gets good enough to drive vehicles. Anything to get lousy human drivers off the roads. It'll also be a boon for people who don't drive. That includes those with disabilities and children. Parents won't have to drive their kids everywhere in the suburbs. They can just have the vehicle drive them and pickup them up.
 

LunarMist

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I'll be happy if AI only gets good enough to drive vehicles. Anything to get lousy human drivers off the roads. It'll also be a boon for people who don't drive. That includes those with disabilities and children. Parents won't have to drive their kids everywhere in the suburbs. They can just have the vehicle drive them and pickup them up.
I'm not convinced that lousy AI is particulary better than lousy humans. With humans there would be individually bad drivers, but if a whole fleet of vehicles has the same type of defect, there can be more widespread damages. :(
I want assistive AI, but don't need a 30.72TB U.2/U.3 drive for that though. ;)
Regardless, vehicles will need more powerful computers and more storage for AI and other functions, and that is part of the overall impact.
 

jtr1962

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I'm not convinced that lousy AI is particulary better than lousy humans. With humans there would be individually bad drivers, but if a whole fleet of vehicles has the same type of defect, there can be more widespread damages. :(
I want assistive AI, but don't need a 30.72TB U.2/U.3 drive for that though. ;)
Regardless, vehicles will need more powerful computers and more storage for AI and other functions, and that is part of the overall impact.
At this stage, AI driving is actually better than the average driver. There are already AI trucks on highways.

The hardest nut to crack is urban driving. We can automate trucks to do the highway part of the trip, but then you need human drivers to take over the last few miles.

Once we're 100% AI, we can do away with traffic signals and stop signs. This will make things much better for pedestrians and cyclists.
 
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