End of the World As We Know It

[Stereodude]

Except congress controls spending, not the President, and we all know which party controlled congress during the majority of each of those President's tenures.

 

[sechs]

The president only signs the bill and implements it. He really has nothing to do with "control."

 

[time]

From an article by an Australian financial journalist:

The (Australian government) revenue shortfall will be worsened by a rising exchange rate (AUD/USD) over the next two or three years as the United States approaches an inevitable fiscal crisis.

US government expenditures are currently 25 per cent of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and revenues are 15 per cent. To close this gap the US needs a growth surge or a massive sustained cut in government spending, or both. Neither is in prospect.

With the House of Representatives controlled by the Republicans, and the Senate and White House controlled by Democrats, nothing will be done until after the 2012 election. And unless the president has won that election by campaigning on spending cuts (unlikely) and therefore has a mandate for them, nothing will be done after the election either.

A fiscal crisis and debt downgrade for the United States of America would be much worse than for Greece or Portugal. That's because 30 per cent of its treasury debt is held by foreigners, largely central banks and largely China, and there is no-one to bail it out.

Moreover the US has been running current account deficits for years and is now up to a cumulative total of $US8 trillion.

US debt held abroad is highly liquid and vulnerable to either panic selling or deliberate shorting. That's particularly so with US bond yields held artificially low by the so-called safe-haven effect, which could disappear quickly.

The bottom line is that having declined 20 per cent in a year on a trade weighted basis, the US dollar remains vulnerable to a crash. It will be bolstered by the end of Federal Reserve monetary stimulus in June, but that is likely to be short lived.

The Australian Government should be planning for an exchange rate (AUD/USD) much higher than $US1.10 and that means lower GDP growth and less tax revenue.

So it's not just America's ass on the line here.

One of the reader comments: "They *could* also raise taxes - say back to Clinton era levels. It is unlikely given that republicans control the house, but it is a third option."

My original point is that you need all three prongs to have a hope of closing the gap. Unfortunately, two of the prongs tend to damage the third: growth.

 

[LunarMist]

Money is just numbers. Unless there is a serious disease or massive global change in the environment, the humans will keep reproducing by billions and surviving whether there is any money or not.

 

[Mercutio]

 

[Howell]

http://m.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/06/the-vigilante/8503/2/

 

[timwhit]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=0,0

This doesn't sound good.

 

[CityK]

MFGlobal meet PFGbest LOL.

The continuing regulatory and political nonfeasance is such a joke....but then again, so is the public's disinterest to actually affect law, order & change.

Anyway, just watching the "Inside Job" right now. Have heard good things about it. If anyone else is interested in watching, its online here: http://vimeo.com/25491676

 

[Mercutio]

I kind of like what the EU is doing, actually prosecuting a banker for manipulating markets. It would be nice if the US were like that.

 

[time]

Economist reflects on Euro health

This was recorded back in June when the Euro looked particularly shaky.

 

[Newtun]

The hackers are winning?

Crack in Internet's foundation of trust allows HTTPS session hijacking

More and more news about cracking, hacking, etc. How soon before "internet security" is a complete oxymoron?

Ironically, major increases in hacking power seem to be due to corresponding increases in GPU power, which can be harnessed for cracking passwords as well as making your favorite game run smoother.