What are your thoughts on automated cars?

jtr1962

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This idea came up in another thread but I thought it deserved a thread of it's own. What are your thoughts on automating driving? I say it's long past due and should be done as soon as possible. Since many cars are already drive by wire, so to speak, it should be fairly easy to implement via embedded roadway magnets and GPS. I'm also of the opinion that once it's done there should be a phase out period of maybe 5 years after which all cars on the road will have be under automatic control with no means at all of controlling them manually(i.e. no steering wheel, gas, or brake pedals). This should bring the current annual fatalities in the US from 50,000 down to virtually zero, along with eliminating the need for auto insurance. Additionally, since a computer reacts far faster than a human can, we can finally allow sensible speeds on highways instead of the dog slow 60 or 70 mph that currently exists in order to cater to the lowest common denominator of human driver. Properly streamlined cars should be able to maintain 150 mph with better energy efficiency than today's cars get at 60 mph. Overall I see this as a win-win situation for everybody except the auto insurance companies, hospitals, and morgues.
 

Santilli

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Never happen. Insurance compaines out of business. Lawyers loosing many profitable cases. Darwinian dwindling of the gene pool taken out of the mix...

Seriously, it's a great idea. Think of all the time we waste driving, that could be used productively, in transit.

s
 

Fushigi

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Along with the insurance folds, all taxi/livery and truck drivers would be unemployed. Ditto for many autobody shop workers and some of the jobs that people who repair roadway infrastructure hold.

Can the automated systems cope with inclement weather? Snow storms, high winds, etc.? Mechanical breakdowns?

Yielding for emergency vehicles automatically would be good. I see too many instances of people who blindly ignore oncoming ambulances and keep driving like they were the only ones on the road.

And lord help us if Microsoft develops the systems or they run on some embedded version on Windows.

Motorcycles would need some sort of gyroscopic stabilizer system a la Ginger to fully enable an autopilot system.

BTW, a 5 year phase-out is way way way too short. 20 years at a minimum. What's more likely is to see commuter/carpool lanes be replaced by autopilot lanes first. Then gradually expand to mixed auto- and human-piloted vehicles. Only after years of intermixing would any roads be declaed auto only.

Societies like ours change slowly with regard to basic infrastructure. Look at all the cellular phones out there yet most people insist on keeping a land line at home .. and some companies only use land line phone numbers as an acceptable contact means -- including cel phone companies! Cable TV is evolving slowly and even then only because satellite is pressuring the profits. Electricity .. the US should move away from 60Hz as it's a huge safety risk. Practically ANY other frequency would be better. In fact, since most things use DC, AC should be used to get the power to the homes (DC fails over long distances), from there a single, efficient transformer could be used to generate 5/12VDC for everything in the house to use. Bye bye power adapters.

- Fushigi
 

LunarMist

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Americans, especially, are far too selfish and uncivilized for such a concept, even if the technology were economically viable.
 

adriel

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...all cars on the road will have be under automatic control...

How would one get a manually controlled sports car from the garage onto the local race track?

This should bring the current annual fatalities in the US from 50,000 down to virtually zero...

Government resources allocated toward a massive, national automatic roadway system are resources taken away from other areas of responsibility. While the annual roadside fatalities would drop, fatalities in other sectors of society would spike.

...along with eliminating the need for auto insurance.

Bicyclist or pedestrian walks into the path of an automated car and is wounded. Vandalism of the roadway causes cars to smash into guardrails or fly off bridges. Mechanical failure of a single car causes an accordian wreck for miles. No insurance?

A forced pathway is inherently less tolerant of unexpected obstructions. With manual control you can bypass pretty much anything since the precision of control allows near infinite possibilities. But with a forced pathway, the negotiable width of the road is suddenly much less. There will be days when a pair of activists or terrorists decide to disengage their vehicles from the automated pathway system, each vehicle blocking one lane and one emergency lane. Without manual control that allows negoatiating the discrepancy between lanes, traffic will be congested, business will be hampered, and people needing to get to the hospital quickly will die.

Automated driving is not a win-win solution, but a decision to modify an existing set of compromises. It will ameliorate some conditions, but aggravate other conditions and introduce new problems that are still unforseen.

Headline: President assassinated; automated limousine unable to escape ambush.
 

jtr1962

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adriel said:
How would one get a manually controlled sports car from the garage onto the local race track?

Don't they use flat bed trucks for that even nowadays? In the scheme of things that's a very minor problem.

Government resources allocated toward a massive, national automatic roadway system are resources taken away from other areas of responsibility. While the annual roadside fatalities would drop, fatalities in other sectors of society would spike.

How so? My point in bringing this up is that most of the pieces are already in place. There is no massive government investment here. Many cars are already drive by wire. Outfitting a computer to guide them via GPS and roadway magnets is almost trivial, and probably more an exercise in programming than anything else. As for roads themselves they merely need to have magnets embedded every so often which costs practically nothing. They've even made self-driven cars which can follow painted lines but magnets gives a more reliable system.

Bicyclist or pedestrian walks into the path of an automated car and is wounded. Vandalism of the roadway causes cars to smash into guardrails or fly off bridges. Mechanical failure of a single car causes an accordian wreck for miles. No insurance?

The cost of auto insurance dealing with car-car accidents will be greatly reduced. As for the types of accidents you mention these are relatively rare even nowadays and will likely be even less with automated cars since the car can react faster to avoid the obstacle. If there is still auto insurance it will cost much less than now due to the greatly reduced rates of all kinds of accident. BTW, the system can easily be programming to deal with the inevitable mechanical failure. Indeed, it must be. So even if there is still auto insurance, the liability part of it will likely be so inexpensive as to be almost irrelevant, perhaps tens of dollars annually.

A forced pathway is inherently less tolerant of unexpected obstructions. With manual control you can bypass pretty much anything since the precision of control allows near infinite possibilities. But with a forced pathway, the negotiable width of the road is suddenly much less.

The magnets are a guide but it is not a fixed pathway like a railway by any stretch of the imagination. Every implementation I've heard of this so far has ways for the car to detect and go around obstacles. You just can't assume the lane will always be clear. In cases where that is impossible because the adjacent lanes are blocked the vehicle will come to a stop, and since all following vehicles will be at a safe distance behind(hardly the case nowadays) they can come to a stop also. Once the vehicle detects that the path is clear, it will proceed. The vehicle must inherently have this ability anyway to deal with stop lights.

There will be days when a pair of activists or terrorists decide to disengage their vehicles from the automated pathway system, each vehicle blocking one lane and one emergency lane.

The point is that they won't have that ability. Once fully phased in about the only control you'll have will be to enter the destination(s), and those destinations cannot include stops in the middle of a highway.


To make the analogy simpler, let's look at computers. The computer user doesn't decide which cluster of the hard drive to store files on. This is completely beyond their control. All they do is pick a name and a folder then the operating system does the rest. Likewise for automated cars. You pick a destination and then the system takes care of getting you there, including picking the fastest route based on prevailing traffic conditions. Just as with the PC there will be occasionally problems but the greatly improved efficiency more than justifies taking the decisions out of human hands. You wouldn't dream of picking what clusters to store your files on, would you? Think of all the times human error will cause problems. Ditto for driving.

I've studied this idea quite a bit and frankly I really can't think of any valid reason why cars should be under human control once the means to automate them exists, and we are practically there. People may resist the idea or think they can do a better job but 50,000 dead, two million injured, and billions of hours wasted each year driving says otherwise. You'll save in the obvious ways with far fewer deaths and injuries. Besides that you won't need to spend public money for police to enforce traffic laws, you won't need to pay people to drive trucks or buses, highly paid employees will be able to use their commute time productively. Of course there will be times the system fails, but I'll take a few dozen injuries or even fatalities a year over what we have now. It's gotten so bad now that I try to avoid riding in cars as much as possible. I can't think of one person, myself included, who hasn't been in at least one auto accident as either a driver, passenger, or both. I've already been in three, all as a passenger. My mom had an accident two years ago when some jerk ran a red light talking on her cell phone. Since then she's had shoulder surgery and two hip replacements. I can certainly think of better uses for her time than that.
 

jtr1962

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Fushigi said:
Along with the insurance folds, all taxi/livery and truck drivers would be unemployed. Ditto for many autobody shop workers and some of the jobs that people who repair roadway infrastructure hold.

True but hasn't technology has obsoleted many jobs in the past. Eventually society will adjust. Besides this won't happen overnight. It likely won't be fully phased in for at least two decades as you mentioned. Plenty of time for people to find another job. Look what's happening now as the airline industry contracts. Those laid off are finding work eventually. It'll likely be big business retrofitting older cars once a fully automatic system is mandated, for example, so sometimes new technology creates as many jobs as are lost.

And lord help us if Microsoft develops the systems or they run on some embedded version on Windows.

Please, no M$ for this! I can only imagine the headlines: Traffic system grinds to a halt nationwide as virus attacks M$ automated car operating system.

Motorcycles would need some sort of gyroscopic stabilizer system a la Ginger to fully enable an autopilot system.\

Either that or they'll be a thing of the past. As for human powered vehicles like bicycles, scooters, skateboards, roller blades, etc. I wouldn't even try to automate those. I think that would be getting a little ridiculous since these are mainly recreational vehicles rather than day to day transportation. Besides, biking will be a lot safer once you know cars will behave in a civilized manner. That's hardly the case nowadays.

Electricity .. the US should move away from 60Hz as it's a huge safety risk. Practically ANY other frequency would be better. In fact, since most things use DC, AC should be used to get the power to the homes (DC fails over long distances), from there a single, efficient transformer could be used to generate 5/12VDC for everything in the house to use. Bye bye power adapters.

I mentioned something similar in another thread. Almost everything in the house nowadays other than lights and motors needs to have the electricity converted to low voltage DC so we might as well have it available in the wall socket. In time even lighting will be DC as we convert to LEDs. The last bastion of AC will be motor driven appliances but those can be converted to DC motors. Even refrigeration will eventually be solid state as the efficiency of thermoelectrics improves. Having a DC system will also make conversion to solar energy easier(that's coming too once solar panels come down in cost). No need for DC-AC inverters and the inherent losses.
 

Fushigi

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jtr1962 said:
:eek: Yet another good reason for driverless cars. :eek:
Similar things have happened around here. I think the last was an elderly driver who went up on the sidewalk and took out about a dozen people (although I could be mis-remembering the details). Merc, you remember that one? Happened around O'Hare, I think.

A friend of mine says that once he turns 70, he's going to stop driving. Can't say I blame him; it's the best thing to do for society since we don't have automated vehicles and it is all too obvious that driving skills/reaction times get worse as we age.

Of course, we're getting to the point where this sort of thing can be avoided. With adaptive cruise control, vehicles maintain safer distances. If that were adopted to non-cruise situations, many collisions could be avoided by having the vehicle automatically enforce safe distances between it and whatever's in front of it.

- Fushigi
 

Tea

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Now just a darn minute there. You know who would end up writing the software, don't you. Same company that brought you Outbreak Express, Melissa, Windows Moron Edition, and the BSOD.

Puts a whole new meaning into the expression I had a car crash, doesn't it.
 

Howell

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The person behind the wheel is not the problem its the car that's the problem. We should just ban their use altogether. It's obvious from just a few examples that no good can come from these weapons.
 

Fushigi

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Howell said:
The person behind the wheel is not the problem its the car that's the problem. We should just ban their use altogether. It's obvious from just a few examples that no good can come from these weapons.
And you propose we use what as a means of transportation in their place? It has to be price-competitive, fairly reliable, safer (since that's the point of your message), capable of handling both short and long distances, and able to travel at a variety of speed upwards of 80MPH or it will fail in the marketplace.

Tea, I don't think there are any automotive systems running Redmondware. Most run on embedded systems from companies that can make a real time operating system. Windows & Linux are not RTOS. Linux is getting good at faking it but it's still not a real RTOS. Wind River, Green Hill, and some others are the players in that space.

The things we're seeing placed in cars nowadays, from reverse-collision sensors to adaptive cruise, computer controlled ABS, other more drive-by-wire systems, are all slowly working towards the goal of automating the driving process. But it will take a lot of time, decades, to get there.

- Fushigi
 

flagreen

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I'd rather have automated women. One problem I see with automated cars would be having the flexibility to meet any emergency situation. I don't see how you could get around that unless an ownwer were able to disable the auto feature if he needed to. Of course if an owner could - that would be abused by many, many people.
 

Buck

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Additionally, how fast could you react to a crisis situation and still have time to deactivate the automatic feature. It is not as if you'd be watching the road much anyway.
 

jtr1962

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You guys are missing the point. With automation there wouldn't be emergency situations that need to be reacted to(at least on limited access roads without pedestrians and cyclists). As for reacting to, say, a child running into the street to get a ball any automated system can do so far faster than is humanly possible. For example, I think it takes something like 0.4 seconds for even the best driver to start to physically react to something they see. A machine can do so in microseconds. Furthermore, the current control inputs on cars which are designed to interface to humans are cumbersome. It takes time to turn a steering wheel to avoid an obstacle. This can add another second or two to the time before the car starts to move in another direction. An automated car may have an electrical motor which can turn the wheels lock-to-lock in 0.1 second, further reducing reaction time. Similar gains exist for when you need to brake or accelerate. This last thing is important as most drivers will never even think to accelerate out of harm's way but this can be put on the list of options for the AI driver. I personally remember cycling a few times when a driver ran a red light. In most of those cases if I hadn't accelerated instead of braking I would have had a collision. Same thing when drivers suddenly pull out of parking spaces when I'm almost on top of them. I usually accelerate and by the time they would have been blocking my path I'm already past them. However, most people simply aren't trained this way. I learned by reading how professional drivers react and changing my mindset. The first instinct of most people, which is to mash on the brakes, is usually wrong.

BTW, contrary to popular belief automated driving won't mean that those who like to drive won't be able to. Doubtless closed course circuits where one can practice their driving skills will be more popular than ever. Even someone who loves to drive, like my brother, has said the usual day-to-day driving to get from point A to point B is no fun. Since traffic laws and speed limits are designed to cater to the lowest common denominator of driver you can't even push your skills or drive in the most efficient manner possible.
 

jtr1962

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Fushigi said:
Howell said:
The person behind the wheel is not the problem its the car that's the problem. We should just ban their use altogether. It's obvious from just a few examples that no good can come from these weapons.
And you propose we use what as a means of transportation in their place? It has to be price-competitive, fairly reliable, safer (since that's the point of your message), capable of handling both short and long distances, and able to travel at a variety of speed upwards of 80MPH or it will fail in the marketplace.

I think Howell was saying that in jest but in any case consider what existed prior to the Interstate highway system. We had a huge interconnected network of railroads and local trolley lines that could get you to within a few blocks of where you wanted to go except for remote rural areas. Had we continued with this, doubtless there would be more local lines and the main trunk lines would be served by TGV-type trains traveling at 200 mph making stops every 50 or so miles. From the TGV stations the local network could get you to your destination within maybe an hour at most. Even counting waiting time your travel time would probably be better than it is today by automobile. Furthermore, we might have even begun construction of a grid of supersonic maglevs to replace air travel over distances where the TGV is too slow. There have also been number proposals where grids are constructed upon which run smaller vehicles which are like automated taxis on guideways in concept. No shortage of ideas to replace the automobile, and in many cases the overall cost of the PRT systems is less than the total that people spend on owning private automobiles now. To be honest, owning cars never made sense to me since most people only utilize them for a hour or two a day. Very poor utilization of capital if you ask me. Perhaps an automated car system will change that. Since people won't drive perhaps many will question why they need to own the vehicle at all. From that will spring up fleets of automated cars on call. You request a car, and an empty one will show up, likely with seconds given today's traffic levels. You proceed to your destination, are billed for the trip, and somebody else near where you were dropped off gets picked up. If you're making the rounds shopping and have packages in the car, you can just keep using the same car until you get home again.
 

Buck

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Tea said:
flagreen said:
I'd rather have automated women.

How about an imaginary one? I'm a bit hairy, but apart from that, I'm pretty nice. Until you have had one of my all-four-paws back massages, you ain't lived.

But you're a young girl. I think we should ask Tannin about this first.
 

flagreen

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Tea said:
flagreen said:
I'd rather have automated women.

How about an imaginary one? I'm a bit hairy, but apart from that, I'm pretty nice. Until you have had one of my all-four-paws back massages, you ain't lived.
I can't stand getting hair in my mouth so it could never work Tea. Besides having one Ex-wife who is ape is trouble enough for any man. I can't imagine what having two would be like. :)
 

Santilli

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Auto cars, run on Windows 95-98 gives new meaning to the term "system crash"..
s
:mrgrn:
 
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