http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_House_of_Commons
I have no idea what you guys are talking about.
Take a look at edawg's prediction. The result of which would be a Conservative government. A minority Conservative government. A very weak minority government.
Now contrast that to the current situation outlined in the wikipedia entry (which obviously will soon change). A very interesting situation: Lib + NDP = Bloc + Tories
Indpendents and everyone showing up for a vote is what inabled the Liberal government to last. Of course, there were occasions when the Bloc also voted with the Liberals, so the Tories were out of luck in trying to bring down the government via a non-confidence vote, and force an election.
The quasi allainces were all called off at the end of Nov, when pretty much everyone (except Liberals who wanted to hold off till end of Feb) wanted to call an election.
So, as I've stated above, I would like to see a minority conservative gov't. That way, on the drop of a dime (if the rednecks get out of hand) they'll get a non confidence vote and be forced to call another election.
But that won't happen, and here's why.
Right now, Stephen Harper, in this last week leading up to the election, is already deviating from the Conservative election campaign strategy of coming across as moderate and a change from the Liberals. In particular, his nonmoderate side is shinning through. And so, public opinion is swaying back towards a more balanced vote. But, aside from the mask coming off, be sure, the Conservatives will still win alone on the basis of being a "change from the Liberals" [I estimate 5-6% more seats then the Liberals].
But here's what's going to happen with the minority Conservative gov't (that will last ~2yrs):
- Stephen Harpers handlers are going to reel him in, slap him around, and then make sure he behaves like a good boy until they have a majority gov't.
- Conservatives will not push anything radical - if they did, public opinion would shift on a dime, the three other parties would vote them out in a non confidence and we'd likely see another Liberal minority gov't come up to bat again. The conservatives are also going to make some consessions to satisfy the other parties, when public opinion over issues is at risk.
- Now, as for the Libs, there not going to want to rush into defeating the conservatives -- they have to rebuild their own image, and have to wait for the opportune time (i.e when the redneck faction in the conservatives draw public opinion of the conservatives way down). Else, forcing an election too soon is likely just lead to a Conservative Majority or stronger minority gov't.
- The Bloc and NDP will both be aware of this and will tend to play ball, going along with the Conservatives for the most part...bidding their time...and squeezing them at more opportune times...and waiting for movement in the Liberal camp, before drawing up their own battle lines.
So, all in all, look to Canada to be fairly well managed for the next couple of years, and continued prosperity -- and a good deal of that will also be attributable to improved relations with the current American administration
Looking further down the road -- I actually don't think the Conservatives are going to fumble the ball while in power. I think we'll end up seeing the conservatives being the one's to end up calling the next election (riding the wave of a strong economy and public opinion polls...given the Liberals won't have finished cleaning house and rebuilding yet). Then I think the morons in the country will say "their doing pretty good, lets all vote for them". And so, a strong Tory majority gov't will ensue. It's at this point, when Harper has a five year lease on Sussex Ave., that I think we'll see all the right wing agenda unfold...the Canadian public (a duped bunch of fools) will not like what they see during the first 3-1/2 years...but they won't be able to do anything about it, nor will the other parties in parliment. The remaining 1.5 gaureented years of tenure will see the Tories try to take a softer/moderate policy stance (trying shore up the moron electorate votes before they call the next election). They will either be (a) successful (b) partially successful (largely depends on what global events occur) or (c) have so distanced themselves from the general public that we'll see the Liberals walk back into power for another 10years.
That's the way I see it....but hey, what do I know.
