Coronavirus

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Here we have (somewhat simplified) 8 persons max in social gatherings, except funerals where 20 persons can attend. That feels like a resonable exception.

Have not heard anything about restrictions on fornication sins so far.

 

[Chewy509]

Restrictions in some Australian states were also brought some criticism at the time due to certain scenarios being allowed, and not other in regards to gatherings. But all in all, they were aimed to protecting the community at large, and would appear to have worked.

Here is one classic example: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/covid-rules-allow-sex-parties-but-wedding-dances-banned/12637640

 

[DrunkenBastard]

Here we have (somewhat simplified) 8 persons max in social gatherings, except funerals where 20 persons can attend. That feels like a resonable exception.

Have not heard anything about restrictions on fornication sins so far.

Those restrictions seem to be fairly recent? It seemed like Sweden was going for a herd immunity strategy early on while their neighbors were being more conservative?

'Caught up in their own bullshit': The cost of Sweden's controversial coronavirus strategy

Sweden's idea of not following conventional coronavirus measures led to a death rate triple that of its neighbours, and even though a vaccine could be close, the country may need the kind of measures it tried to avoid throughout the pandemic.

www.abc.net.au

 

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Those restrictions seem to be fairly recent? It seemed like Sweden was going for a herd immunity strategy early on while their neighbors were being more conservative?

The goal was never herd immunity, at least not officialy, but to "flatten the curve" to not overload the healthcare system.

It did work pretty good in the spring when people followed the guidelines. Of course, a huge scandal when Covid entered the nursing homes and the patients did not even get to see a doctor and were put on palliative treatment per default.

In the autumn people were tired of following the guidelines, and we got massive spread again... and it have entered the nursing homes again.

We will see what happens.

 

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I just read that our ambassador in USA said on the Tucker Carlson show earlier this year that Sweden strived for herd immunity. And it would most likely be the result of our strategy - if it worked. Which it does not seem to do. many of the basic assumptions made by our authorities seems to be wrong. (Which is always easy to say afterwards).

 

[jtr1962]

Given how little we knew about the virus then going for herd immunity made no sense at all. For starters, we still don't know how long a person is immune to it once they get it. If it's only a matter of months, herd immunity can never work unless everyone in the country got it within a few months of each other. The death rate for that would be staggering, on the order of 5%, since hospitals would be overwhelmed. So basically, if Sweden was happy to kill off 5% of its population maybe it might get herd immunity, at least until the immune response wanes and people from outside the country bring it in. Then you start all over again. A doctor on the news discussed the herd immunity strategy espoused by Dr. Atlas, head of Trump's coronavirus task force. Basically, he said it's mass murder. Maybe you would have 6 to 10 million deaths in the US in the first year, then 1 million deaths annually forever, or at least until the virus mutated into a less lethal strain and that strain took over, which of course might not happen.

 

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I agree and that is also the reason why everybody officially rejected talks of herd immunity, because it would be a really cynical thing to do.

Plus now we are seeing people getting reinfected in 5-6-7 months...

 

[Handruin]

This seems like a step in the right direction:

First doses of Pfizer coronavirus vaccine have flown to US from Belgium: report

 

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Interesting articles on superspreader events.

Superspreader event: One conference in Boston tied to 300,000 global coronavirus cases

Last winter’s Biogen conference in Boston appears to have triggered a globetrotting COVID-19 superspreader that infected an estimated 333,000 people, a scientific study states.

www.mercurynews.com

 

[Handruin]

I remember when that event happened back in February. Not much was known yet about covid in the US and most places hadn't shut down until mid March.

I wonder if they'll do a similar study to the Rose Garden event and the Whitehouse staff who seem to spread it carelessly to everyone.

 

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A new Covid variant is found in South Africa.

SA scientists identify COVID-19 variant, Mkhize announces

Health Minister Zweli Mkhize is briefing the media on the latest developments regarding the coronavirus pandemic.

ewn.co.za

 

[sedrosken]

I'm not at all surprised, if anything, I'd say it took them long enough.

 

[DrunkenBastard]

So looks like vaccination speed is increasing in the US:

"About 5% of the US population -- roughly 16.2 million people -- has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 2.75 million people are fully vaccinated, according to CDC data updated Friday. Nearly 1.6 million vaccine doses were administered Friday, the largest one-day increase reported."

FDA gives approval for syringes to extract an extra dose from vials of Covid-19 vaccine

As states are clamoring for more supplies of Covid-19 vaccines, Pfizer and the FDA are enabling pharmacists and health practitioners to extract more of the doses from each vial.

www.cnn.com

However things are not going as smoothly in continental Europe with supply issues:

Coronavirus: EU vaccine woes mount as new delays emerge

AstraZeneca is the latest company, after Pfizer, to warn of delivery issues, frustrating officials.

www.bbc.com

 

[jtr1962]

It'll probably take at least 50% vaccination rates before we even have a chance of achieving herd immunity but at least the daily increase in vaccinations is a step in the right direction.

 

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I think it's almost natural that there are some problems before the production and supply chains are fully optimized when everything has gone so fast.

I don't follow the daily reports, but priority group 1 is nursing homes, and they have all got their first shots now + the supply is enough for the second shot + the next group (healthcare workers)? But I think every country have different situations and will prioritize differently.

Israel is really impressive though, a few days ago 5% of their population have gotten their second shot. It will be interesting to follow.

 

[DrunkenBastard]

I think it's almost natural that there are some problems before the production and supply chains are fully optimized when everything has gone so fast.

I don't follow the daily reports, but priority group 1 is nursing homes, and they have all got their first shots now + the supply is enough for the second shot + the next group (healthcare workers)? But I think every country have different situations and will prioritize differently.

Israel is really impressive though, a few days ago 5% of their population have gotten their second shot. It will be interesting to follow.

NY basically did the same thing, however the immense idiot Gov Cuomo was so busy micromanaging the further rollouts into tiers (75+) etc that it was affecting distribution. He finally eased off and opened it to 65+. Nursing homes are being vaccinated by a seperate Federal program.

 

[jtr1962]

Micromanaging is Cuomo's thing, unfortunately. Sometimes a hands off approach is better.

 

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It'll probably take at least 50% vaccination rates before we even have a chance of achieving herd immunity but at least the daily increase in vaccinations is a step in the right direction.

Dr Fauci mentioned 75%. That suggests he believes that the uninhibited R0 of COVID-19 is 4.0, or maybe 3.8 if you allow for a vaccine efficacy of 95%. That would be the center of the range that Chinese scientists originally calculated in early 2020.

It's pretty simple arithmetic. To avoid exponential growth, you need to reduce transmission by 3.8 times to offset the natural spreadability of the virus.

The logical consequence of that is that a vaccine with only 62% efficacy (AstraZeneca) leaves you with an Re (effective reproductive factor) of 1.44, which is a doubling of active cases after two generations of infection = very bad. This is the one that the UK and Australia are going with.

It could be worse: the 3rd stage trial results in Brazil for CoronaVAC, the vaccine from Chinese company Sinovac, came in at just 50.4% efficacy - that's nearly 10 times less effective in a population than Pfizer-BioNTech (if real life effectiveness correlates with the large clinical trials).

Of course, social distancing and masks etc must be reducing transmission by at least 3.5 times (70%), hence the numbers are increasing but not actually exploding. So you would expect doubling of actual cases to take two months or more. It's just that the restrictions that are effective are not sustainable - economically at least.

Unfortunately, there appears to be growing acceptance that some of the new virus mutations (UK, SA, etc) really are a lot more infectious. That could push R0 up to 6.0 or even beyond. Countries are responding with some degree of lockdown, which can be more than 80% effective with a reasonably compliant population (that's how Australia and New Zealand eradicated earlier waves).

A lockdown may need to be 83% effective to avoid exponential growth of a virus with R0 = 6.0. Yikes.

 

[DrunkenBastard]

I think Faucis latest range for herd immunity is 70 to 90% but he said he didnt want to say 90.

Either way unfortunate that Oxford is so much less effective than the other two that are 95% effective, tho I can understand for vast countries with significant outlying populations that they didnt want to go with ones that required frozen transport.

 

[DrunkenBastard]

What especially worrying is this about the UK strain:

"Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist and member of President Joe Biden's coronavirus transition team, said he has reviewed the UK report, as well as other data that has not been publicly released, and he is "convinced" that the new variant is deadlier.

"The data is mounting -- and some of it I can't share -- that clearly supports that B.1.1.7 is causing more severe illness and increased death," said Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "Already we know this variant has increased transmission, and so this is more very bad news.""

CDC reviewing new data that suggests coronavirus variant identified in UK could be more deadly

Scientists at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are speaking with UK health officials to learn more about British data that suggests a new coronavirus variant could be more deadly.

www.cnn.com

 

[DrunkenBastard]

Found the article on Faucis numbers, apparently he was sandbagging with his initial lower numbers based on vaccination willingness surveys:

"In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying “70, 75 percent” in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak."

How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?

Scientists initially estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the population needed to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to banish it. Now Dr. Anthony Fauci and others are quietly shifting that number upward.

www.nytimes.com

90% is going to be very tough to achieve in the US I fear.

 

[jtr1962]

What we won't know until the data are released is how effective the newest vaccines are at preventing serious disease. While their numbers at preventing immunity are far less than the two dose vaccines, if they're as effective at preventing serious disease they will still be a very useful tool. Even if lots of vaccinated people get it, but very few need hospitalization, with even fewer dying, it will be one step towards normalcy.

I have a feeling this virus will be with us in one form or another for at least a few years. We may need another round of vaccinations if it mutates significantly. We'll probably need localized shut downs to stamp out hot spots. Eventually it'll be gone but who knows over what time frame?

 

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Even if lots of vaccinated people get it, but very few need hospitalization, with even fewer dying, it will be one step towards normalcy.

I'm not sure it will be. In the past year, your chances of catching it in the USA were roughly 10%. That's analogous to being vaccinated with a decent vaccine.

If you take 100 people and vaccinate them with a vaccine that is only 50% efficacious, then at least 50 of those can still spread the virus. But which 50?

Now take that concept and apply it to 100 million people, and tell me how you guard against the 50 million who aren't immune? The answer is pretty much exactly the same as how life is now, and I don't think that is what you meant by normalcy.

The elephant in the room is that half-assed efforts like this create the ideal environment for more virus mutations to appear. The UK managed that with profligate use of immunosuppressive drug treatments, highlighting that you cannot just throw random crap at this and expect to escape unscathed.

Eventually it'll be gone but who knows over what time frame?

What historical evidence do you have that supports the idea that it will ever disappear? How many other viruses have we exterminated again?

Of course, it might mutate into something a little less deadly and debilitating - that would be nice.

 

[jtr1962]

I'm not sure it will be. In the past year, your chances of catching it in the USA were roughly 10%. That's analogous to being vaccinated with a decent vaccine.

If you take 100 people and vaccinate them with a vaccine that is only 50% efficacious, then at least 50 of those can still spread the virus. But which 50?

Now take that concept and apply it to 100 million people, and tell me how you guard against the 50 million who aren't immune? The answer is pretty much exactly the same as how life is now, and I don't think that is what you meant by normalcy.

What I'm saying here is catching it and getting really sick from it are two different things. If the vaccines which are only 50% effective are still close to 100% effective preventing serious disease then we're much better off than now. That doesn't mean we just give up masks and social distancing right away. That's still a very effective way to slow the spread. Maybe once the last confirmed case was a few months ago then we go back to normal.

That said, I'd much prefer if we just stick to the 2-dose vaccines. The slight inconvenience of getting a second shot is more than outweighed by the 95% efficacy.

The elephant in the room is that half-assed efforts like this create the ideal environment for more virus mutations to appear. The UK managed that with profligate use of immunosuppressive drug treatments, highlighting that you cannot just throw random crap at this and expect to escape unscathed.

And we may need annual vaccinations for a while to deal with these mutations but vaccinations will slow the spread regardless, making mutations less likely once most of the population is vaccinated.

What historical evidence do you have that supports the idea that it will ever disappear? How many other viruses have we exterminated again?

Of course, it might mutate into something a little less deadly and debilitating - that would be nice.

Not disappear completely, but disappear to the point where the occasional flareups can be dealt with by contact tracing and localized lock downs. For what it's worth SARS hasn't appeared in the wild since 2004, and we didn't even have a vaccine for it.

 

[time]

SARS-CoV-1 is a mystery. I think that's why everyone became complacent. MERS is still going, but neither of those seem to be anywhere near as contagious. I don't know how we lucked out like that, given that other coronaviruses (Common Cold) appear to be eternal.

I take your point about hoping that even the lesser vax might reduce the severity, but I don't know if we have any data on that yet.

Similarly, we have no idea how long the conferred immunity will last. Based on other coronaviruses, the guesstimates seem to range between 6 and 18 months. Probably longer than if you actually caught it, so hopefully more than 12 months.

Influenza type viruses mutate faster so we are lucky if immunity is useful for more than one season. I understand that a flu shot may not cover you for the entirety of an extended season, which is why they encourage people to hold off a bit before getting the jab.

 

[jtr1962]

My understanding with both SARS and MERS is that by the time a person is contagious they're already likely to be very sick, and therefore at home, not running around. The asymptomatic spread of covid-19 is what has caused it to spread far and wide.

I'm guessing the various strains of common cold probably started out similar to covid-19, but eventually mutated into relatively benign strains.

 

[time]

Great in-depth article from the BBC:
Can you still transmit Covid-19 after vaccination?

So far, the available Covid-19 vaccines have not been judged primarily on their ability to prevent transmission – though this is now being evaluated as a secondary endpoint for many of them. Instead, their efficacy was assessed by whether they could prevent symptoms from developing.
...
Scientists already know that the antibodies people develop after natural infections with Covid-19 don't always prevent them from being reinfected. One study of British healthcare workers found that 17% of those who had antibodies already when the study began – presumably from a first infection – caught it a second time.

 

[DrunkenBastard]

So the good news Time is that at least based on the recent study I saw even the lower efficacy J&J single shot vaccinne still was 100% effective in preventing death.

How the Johnson & Johnson vaccine efficacy rate compares to Moderna, Pfizer

"There's been conversation around, 'Do I want Johnson & Johnson now? Or should I take Moderna or Pfizer?' Our advice is, take the quickest appointment you can get."

www.wgrz.com

 

[Handruin]

It's good news all around. Just got to keep getting more available and the appointments made easier for people.

 

[Newtun]

Duke University says it has issued a quarantine order for all of its undergraduates.

"Blue Devils" indeed. But they've got to fight for their right to partay!