[NEWS] - DRAM prices to climb 'till November

[CougTek]

According to Micron, at least :

Micron Technology recently told in an interview to Reuters that memory prices will be climbing throughout August to November, when PC makers see a strong demand for their products. This contradicts analysts, who believe that the market will face oversupply and dropping prices of DRAM.

[...]

Typically memory makers start preparations for back-to-school season in the second half of July or in the first half of August. In case the demand for DRAM rises dramatically within the next few weeks, the prices may soar.

Not all PC makers are likely to rocket their DRAM purchases. Largest computer makers usually accumulate memory modules in stocks in order to avoid possible impact of their costs by DRAM pricing. In case the demand for new PCs is not extremely strong, and large PC makers will have enough memory for their needs, the DRAM pricing is unlikely to not uptick seriously as a result of high demand. By contrast, memory makers will have to worry about oversupply.

So people like me waiting for the Athlon 64 on the 90µm process (coming in late Fall) will have to spend a lot for the RAM of their new system

News source

 

[jtr1962]

One thing that puzzles me is that for a given size there doesn't seem to be much price difference between, say, PC3200 ($66 for 512MB on Pricewatch) versus PC133 ($49 for 512MB) despite the fact that the PC3200 is 24 times faster. I just don't get it. I tend to think with the need now for faster RAM in most new systems you wouldn't be able to give PC133 away. I'm having an impossible time getting a few 256 MB PC133 sticks for some older systems I have. I need the low-density (i.e. double-sided) sticks, and these don't seem to be available (even on eBay) at what I feel is a reasonable price (~$10 each).

Hopefully the analysts are wrong and prices will start to fall, at least on the slower stuff. They're assuming a large demand for new systems but for many money is tight and their existing systems are fast enough.

 

[Bookmage]

It's never about real life performance.
It's More about the cost of the thing and the upgrade ladder for that technology. So while a stick of DDR is 4 times faster, 256MB of SDRAM is near the top of the line since most people would not buy more than a stick of 512MB. IT's the same reason P3 1Ghz still cost almost 100$ in the Slot 1 or Socket 370 variant. If u want to max out that particular piece of hardware, there's only one real choice. So they keep prices high.

Besides, isn't that reason enough to fleabay ur old stuff...
or just give it to me :-D

 

[Tea]

Your prices watch thingie is out of fantasy land, JTR. PC-133 costs more than PC-3200. Also, your speed figure is out by a mile.

PC-133: 133MHz
PC-2100: 266MHz: 2x as fast
PC-2700: 333MHz: 2.5x as fast
PC-3200: 400MHz: 3x as fast

Rough guide: you pay about 1.4 times the price for SDRAM as compared with good quality DDR, and can expect he gap to grow. SDRAM is no longer manufactured in volume and is now a high-cost niche market product.

A reasonable market price for double-sided 256MB SDRAM (i.e., RAM made using 128Mb chips) is $AU100 to $150. In US money, say about $40 to $60 each. No-one in their right mind is going to sell you expensive, hard to get parts for US$10.

If you walk into the shop wanting to upgrade your RAM from SDRAM to DDR (perhaps because you have a new motherboard) and you have double-sided 256MB sticks to trade, we will give you an equal amount of brand new premium quality RAM completely free of charge for them. We do that all the time, but we still can't get enough of it.

 

[jtr1962]

PC-133: 133MHz
PC-2100: 266MHz: 2x as fast
PC-2700: 333MHz: 2.5x as fast
PC-3200: 400MHz: 3x as fast

Thanks for explaining that to me but why the hell didn't they just call PC-3200 PC-400 in order to be consistent? Maybe next they'll starting stating hard drive speeds in rotations per hour.

While it's true that PC-133 is no longer made in large quantities, I'm surprised there's still that much demand for it. Combine that with the prices of older processors and it makes more sense to just get a new M/B and RAM rather than max out what you have. A while back when RAM prices were still dropping I remember one place selling sticks of 256 MB PC133 at $17 each. I held off buying more because I felt the prices would continue to drop (which they did for a while). Unfortunately, further price drops of 256MB sticks were due to the fact that mainly single-sided was being made. I held off ordering for too long because I didn't need the memory right then and there and when I started watching prices again they were climbing rapidly.

I guess my only hope is to check eBay periodically and maybe I'll find someone who doesn't know prices selling very cheap (unless of course anyone here has some sticks they have no use for, and don't feel like eBaying them. ) My $10 per unit figure is based on the value they have to me. My main system already has 768MB but I would need to take out 2 128 MB sticks to max it out at 1 GB. Sure, I could use the sticks in one of my other systems but the point here is that I need to purchase 2 sticks to gain 256 MB, and except for one or two apps I doubt I would even notice the difference. That's why I'll either do it dirt cheap or I won't bother.

As an aside the prices of 72-pin EDO RAM have gotten dirt cheap. You can buy 32 MB sticks online for as low as $4 each. I guess it's finally reaching close to the point of obsolescence. As for 30-pin RAM, you can't give the stuff away. It's sold by the pound for scrap nowadays.

 

[CityK]

Thanks for explaining that to me but why the hell didn't they just call PC-3200 PC-400 in order to be consistent?

<making abundent use of the latest additions to my Finnish lexicon> Consistency in the computer industry? Tsot, tsot Joe. </making abundent use of the latest additions to my Finnish lexicon>

PC-400 doesn't convey enough information- although it acurately describes that the effective frequency is 400MHz, it says nothing about the underlining frequency being only 200MHz. However, the nomenclature DDR400 conveys both of these facts. PC-3200 is used to describe the theoritical bandwidth of the memory (200MHz x 2 (because it operates at a DDR) x 64bits = 3200MBps)). The value of 3200MBps will
never actually be realized, but under streaming applications, values starting to approach this limit can be obtained (one has only to open up Siscrap Sandra or some other dumb over-emphasized/utilized benchmark utility to verify this)....PC-3200 probably also works much better from a marketing perspective.

 

[CityK]

PS - Micron is full of crap

 

[Tea]

Actually, if we are going to tell the real truth here, the 3200 number came about because a mob of scoundrels named RAMBUS came out with a new sort of very expensive but not particularly fast RAM and, so as to make it sound like it was lots faster than the existing PC-133 RAM, they made up a bigger number.

So, in self-defence, the manufacturers of real DDR RAM had to make up a number too, and, naturally, they chose a made-up number that was bigger than Rambus' made-up number. Then, as a bit of an afterthought, they made up a way to rationalise it with some sort of logic.

The formula that resulted has been expertly described by CityK in his post above.

 

[jtr1962]

DDR 400 is fine also but I'm sure the switch to PC3200 was mainly for marketing reasons. After all, I'll bet you had plenty of people (me included) who initially thought that PC3200 is indeed 24 times faster than PC133. While I did notice that there was nothing in between PC150 and PC1600, I assumed this was due to some breakthrough that made RAM speeds ~10 times faster in short order, and not due to a change in nomenclature. If that's the case, then my PC-133 is also PC-1064. :mrgrn: I hate marketing people and all the confusion they bring. :evil:

 

[Tea]

The demand for PC-133 is very small now, if we consider it in terms of the global market, Joe. No-one uses it for new systems anymore, so as far as the RAM manufacturers are concerned, it doesn't exist. Naturally, they are not prepared to make it, as like everyone in this stupid industry, they are terrified of making expensive stuff and then having it lie around in warehouses unsold. In fact, bitter experience has taught them to be so terrified of this that they generally stop making products well before demand for them dries up.

PC-133 RAM is just one example. The same thing happened with 72-pin EDO, with Socket 370 motherboards, and with a host of other end-of-life products.

Of course, demand doesn't dry up instantly when a new product comes along: it fades away gradually. In particular, the upgrade and repair market continues to need modest but appreciable quanties of the old product for several years after it goes EOL.

The usual pattern with these things is that the old product goes into shortage, and the price goes up in consequence. It's not unusual to see second-hand items of the lower performance product sell for more than brand new items of the replacement part.

Right now, if you walk into my shop, you can have brand new DDR for $75 or $80, premium quality lifetime warranty new DDR for $100, or, if you are lucky, odds and ends of lying around second-hand SDRAM for $140. This ain't price-gouging: we pay top dollar for second-hand SDRAM (trying to drag in extra product to sell) and even so we usually have more orders than we have product to fill them with.

You are quite right: often it makes more sense to just get a new M/B and RAM. This is a very attractive option as (at least with us) you pay nothing for the new RAM: we swap you even, new for old. All you have to buy is the new CPU and mainboard.

You are right too to keep an eye out for cheap SDRAM: my guess is that the price will stay about where it is now for quite a while. The supply is gradually drying up, but the demand is slowly dropping too (as more and more people switch to DDR) and that suggests a fairly stable price structure.

As you have noticed, 72-pin EDO, after a long time as a hard-to-get product that sells for top dollar, has now dropped off the radar. That will happen with PC-133 too, but not for ... oh ... maybe three years.

 

[Tea]

PS: marketing droids are full of crap.