[NEWS] Hard drives: 600GB by 2007

[Handruin]

The standard desktop PC of 2007 will have a hard disk drive with capacity between 500GB and 600GB, according to Mark Geenen, managing director of research company TrendFocus Inc.

Making our TB server a simple 2-drive stripe. :lol:

Link Source

 

[jtr1962]

I assume they're talking about averages here. Given that drives are at 300 GB maximum now (not sure of the average-maybe 100 GB?), doubling in capacity in the space of 3 years doesn't seem like that much progress. We were doing that in a year until recently. Of course, if the average drive is 500 GB by 2007, then that means we will have broken the magic 1 TB barrier on the high end.

 

[zx]

The standard desktop PC of 2007 will have a hard disk drive with capacity between 500GB and 600GB, according to Mark Geenen, managing director of research company TrendFocus Inc.

Standard desktop PC? Am I the only one who thinks that the typical business user does not need 500GB (or even today's 250GB). 500GB hard drives, that's realistic. But the typical desktop PC? Ouch.

The good side is that with everyone buying huge hard drives, power users will get them for cheap! yay!

 

[ddrueding]

I know many, many users who buy PCs based on their spec; having no basis for their own needs at all.

A new client recently bought a 3GHz P4 with 1GB RAM and a 160GB HDD for their small business (2 employees). They'd been watching the market for a few weeks and saw "a good deal" for ~$1800. When I explained that they wouldn't see any difference in quickbooks even if they had paid a grand less, they didn't even understand what I was saying.

 

[blakerwry]

what's worse is to show them how to spend half as much money and get a faster computer.... and still they stare blankly.

 

[sechs]

Megahertz myth, meet the megabyte myth.

 

[Fushigi]

Keep in mind that Office 2006 will require 300GB alone. :roll:

Actually, for the average corporate desktop, whatever the minimum drive available at the time will probably be fine. But as more A/V features get pushed into average consumer PCs, storage requirements will only continue to grow.

Take Windows Media Center, AIW cards, DV capture via FireWire, etc. and the need for large amounts of storage will only rise. Even more so with HD vs. SD broadcasts becoming more popular. Many people will capture to their hearts content and will want to keep it online or burn to whatever DVD-ish format is around at the time.

 

[EdwardK]

Keep in mind that Office 2006 will require 300GB alone. :roll:

LOL Fushigi, thats a good one :mrgrn: Although I wouldn't be surprised if it will be true (maybe the PaperClip Office Assistant alone takes up 1GB?)

To add on to what Fushigi says, more and more games are taking up gigabytes of space. Unreal II takes up 2.44GB. I wonder how big HalfLife II and Doom III will take up?

Cheers,
Edward

 

[blakerwry]

i wouldn't be surprised if they come in DVD form... or even multiple DVD's in the next year or two.

 

[Jan Kivar]

Keep in mind that Office 2006 will require 300GB alone. :roll:

... The selected software is available in 3.5" floppies by request.... :lol: 8)

Cheers,

Jan

 

[Onomatopoeic]

I assume they're talking about averages here. Given that drives are at 300 GB maximum now (not sure of the average-maybe 100 GB?), doubling in capacity in the space of 3 years doesn't seem like that much progress. We were doing that in a year until recently. Of course, if the average drive is 500 GB by 2007, then that means we will have broken the magic 1 TB barrier on the high end.

A fairly recent storage white paper from a year ago (data circa 2002, I'm assuming) showed that the "average" hard drive capacity of a new hard drive to be a whopping 40 GB. Hard drive manufacturing counts with >100 GB capacity was, if I recall correctly, a paltry 4% or 5% total across the whole industry (SCSI and ATA).

I'll go out on a limb here and predict that by January of 2007, the largest hard drive will be just under or right at 600 GB, with the crowd occupying the 400 GB to 200 GB range, and the *smallest* being 100 GB. This is assuming 200 GB platters by then.

However, I'll also predict there will be a much greater move towards standardising on the 2.5-inch form factor than on pushing capacity upwards on 3.5-inch drives. This new storage density will spawn smaller drives. 3.5-ich drives will be relegated to higher-end storage. Of course, everything that's new will be connected to a serial data channel by then.

 

[jtr1962]

Funny, I predicted 1 TB by 2005 a couple of years ago. Looks like we won't be anywhere near that. Apparently the difficulties going first to 80 GB platters and now to 100 GB platters are greater than anticipated. Anyone else here think magnetic storage is very close to reaching its areal density limits? Not too long ago I said we were within an order of magnitude of those limits. Now I think it's closer to a factor of 5.

 

[blakerwry]

we've been hearing about copper limit for a while.... cat7 is now at 20Gbps using ATM. Fiber NICs are still expensive as hell.

I think we have a ways to go.

 

[Jan Kivar]

However, I'll also predict there will be a much greater move towards standardising on the 2.5-inch form factor than on pushing capacity upwards on 3.5-inch drives. This new storage density will spawn smaller drives. 3.5-ich drives will be relegated to higher-end storage. Of course, everything that's new will be connected to a serial data channel by then.

I tend to think this also. I'm predicting we'll see ~100 GB 2.5" drives. But it is uncertain whether we will actually use 2.5" drives then. In the end it will all depend on how fast OEM case manufacturers can implement 2.5" bays.

Cheers,

Jan