Coronavirus

jtr1962

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Anyone have ideas on why all but 2 of the deaths have occurred in China? I have a theory but I'm curious what others think. If you exclude China, the mortality rate is well under 0.5%.

Also, for a few days it looked like the rate of increase in the number of cases was starting to level off. It looked like it might asymptotically approach somewhere between 100K and 200K. Yesterday it just spiked, although the reason was given as "surge in number of cases and deaths is due for the most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification". So maybe they were under reporting before? Who knows how many cases we're going to see? I wouldn't be surprised if we top 1 million cases and over 10K deaths before this is over.
 

Stereodude

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Anyone have ideas on why all but 2 of the deaths have occurred in China? I have a theory but I'm curious what others think. If you exclude China, the mortality rate is well under 0.5%.
Inferior medical treatment? A different mindset in the population in terms of seeking medical treatment? The virus started there first? The virus is a bioweapon that targets Chinese?

No idea...
 

jtr1962

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Inferior medical treatment? A different mindset in the population in terms of seeking medical treatment? The virus started there first? The virus is a bioweapon that targets Chinese?

No idea...
My theory is that the Chinese government has been killing people who contracted the virus in an effort to stop its spread, instead of treating them. The rationale would be even if the sick people are in a hospital for treatment they could still spread the virus to medical personnel. If they're dead and buried in mass graves that's no longer possible.
 

sedrosken

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@jtr1962 I wouldn't be surprised if that is indeed the case. It would horrify me, but it wouldn't shock me at all. And considering that the numbers are in all likelihood far worse than the Chinese government is letting on... this is really starting to scare me.

I'm afraid I'm still a bit out of the loop... outside the Chinese deaths, where did the other two occur? I imagine I'd have heard about it -- firmly rooted under my rock as I am -- if it were here in the States.
 

jtr1962

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@jtr1962 I wouldn't be surprised if that is indeed the case. It would horrify me, but it wouldn't shock me at all. And considering that the numbers are in all likelihood far worse than the Chinese government is letting on... this is really starting to scare me.
Exactly. Communist governments aren't exactly known for caring much about the lives of their citizens. If they think it might help stop the virus by killing infected people, they won't hesitate to do so.

I'm afraid I'm still a bit out of the loop... outside the Chinese deaths, where did the other two occur? I imagine I'd have heard about it -- firmly rooted under my rock as I am -- if it were here in the States.
Actually, four deaths outside China so far. One each in Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, and France. That's out of 697 cases outside China. The mortality rate then is ~0.6%. 1,662 deaths out of 68,347 cases in China, which is a 2.4% mortality rate.

The real worry from experts is that this might mutate into something with a higher mortality rate. Given the long incubation period without symptoms if it's coupled with a high mortality rate this could be pretty bad. If it doesn't mutate we should be out of the woods within a few months.

We might have a vaccine soon, but so far no drug company has said they're willing to manufacture it.
 

Chewy509

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Going off on a side topic, with mail/package restrictions out of China now in force (for most countries), how long do we think prices for goods at the local stores will remain as they are? (As stock can't be replenished for goods made in China, what is pricing going to be like in 1-3-6 months)?

And will this event be a reason for local governments to attempt to restart localised manufacturing bases? (And this is not for just electronics, but power tools, furniture, anything plastic, fabrics, clothing, etc).

Could this event be a catalyst for a global recession?
 

Stereodude

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Going off on a side topic, with mail/package restrictions out of China now in force (for most countries), how long do we think prices for goods at the local stores will remain as they are? (As stock can't be replenished for goods made in China, what is pricing going to be like in 1-3-6 months)?
There will probably be a lot of empty shelves in a few months. Prices will rise as things start to thin.

And will this event be a reason for local governments to attempt to restart localised manufacturing bases? (And this is not for just electronics, but power tools, furniture, anything plastic, fabrics, clothing, etc).
Maybe, but unfortunately memories are short and the amount of time to bring things back and get local manufacturing running again is long.

Could this event be a catalyst for a global recession?
It's likely.
 

time

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The first link is a puff piece (i.e. bullsh*t), the second includes a quote that says a vaccine is at least a year away, and that's assuming a large pharmaceutical company is onboard.

China might be 'out of the woods' in a few months, but the epidemic has yet to even get going in other countries. *If* it turns out to be a mostly Winter disease, then it will hit most countries in about 9-10 months time when Winter returns to the Northern Hemisphere.
 

time

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I think that what is happening on the quarantined cruise ship, Diamond Princess, is a microcosm of what is likely to come. From Wikipedia:

On 20 January 2020 an 80-year-old guest from Hong Kong embarked in Yokohama, sailed one segment of the itinerary, and disembarked in Hong Kong on 25 January. Six days after leaving the ship, he visited a local Hong Kong hospital, where he later tested positive for COVID-19 on 1 February.

On the next voyage, on 4 February 2020, the ship was in Japanese waters when 10 passengers were diagnosed with the virus. For some, the only contact with the 80-year old was in sharing the same bus. A total of 3,700 passengers and crew were quarantined by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for what was expected to be a 14-day period, off the Port of Yokohama.

On 7 February, the total number of people on board with confirmed COVID-19 infections grew to 61.

Another three cases were detected on 8 February, bringing the total to 64.

Six cases were detected on 9 February, while another 65 were detected on 10 February, bringing the total to 135.

On 11 February, 39 more people tested positive for COVID-19, including the case of one quarantine officer, bringing the total to 174. Passengers with confirmed cases were reported to be taken ashore for treatment.

On 13 February, 44 more people tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total to 218.

On 15 February, 67 more people were reported to be infected, bringing the total to 285.

On 16 February, 70 more passengers and crew tested positive for the virus (38 have no symptoms), bringing the total to 355. Affected people are removed to isolation wards onshore. This is nearly 10% of the original complement of 3700 passengers and crew, and various countries are moving to evacuate their citizens from the ship.

No-one from the ship has died yet. What's probably more concerning is that, based on Chinese data, one in every 7 confirmed cases becomes ill enough to require hospitalization. China is currently treating over 11,000 people with COVIC-19 that are 'seriously ill'. In all likelihood, this is why the death rate is so high - even with the emergency field hospitals they hurriedly built, they are still short several thousand beds. They have at least 1500 doctors and nurses struck down with the virus already. Under these conditions, people with viral pneumonia etc are less likely to survive.
 

DrunkenBastard

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What I don't understand is why every single person on the ship wasn't tested. They've been doing some kind of staged testing based on age etc. Each batch of testing finds more. Surely they can get enough test kits to get them all done at once.

Presumably the ventilation system keeps each room closely linked to the next. Definitely want the balcony rooms instead of inside cabins for this one.
 

Stereodude

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What I don't understand is why every single person on the ship wasn't tested. They've been doing some kind of staged testing based on age etc. Each batch of testing finds more. Surely they can get enough test kits to get them all done at once.

Presumably the ventilation system keeps each room closely linked to the next. Definitely want the balcony rooms instead of inside cabins for this one.
Supposedly they don't have enough kits to test everyone. That's what being reported in the news. Leaving the ship and getting on a plane to fly to the US with people you've been quarantined from for almost 2 weeks already, who haven't been tested, only to have to spend another 14 days in quarantine in the US doesn't sound like a great strategy.
 
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