Stereodude
Not really a
China has a 2nd province on lockdown now. Reportedly up to 400million people.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Stereodude
- Start date
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
Anyone have ideas on why all but 2 of the deaths have occurred in China? I have a theory but I'm curious what others think. If you exclude China, the mortality rate is well under 0.5%.
Also, for a few days it looked like the rate of increase in the number of cases was starting to level off. It looked like it might asymptotically approach somewhere between 100K and 200K. Yesterday it just spiked, although the reason was given as "surge in number of cases and deaths is due for the most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification". So maybe they were under reporting before? Who knows how many cases we're going to see? I wouldn't be surprised if we top 1 million cases and over 10K deaths before this is over.
Also, for a few days it looked like the rate of increase in the number of cases was starting to level off. It looked like it might asymptotically approach somewhere between 100K and 200K. Yesterday it just spiked, although the reason was given as "surge in number of cases and deaths is due for the most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification". So maybe they were under reporting before? Who knows how many cases we're going to see? I wouldn't be surprised if we top 1 million cases and over 10K deaths before this is over.
Stereodude
Not really a
Inferior medical treatment? A different mindset in the population in terms of seeking medical treatment? The virus started there first? The virus is a bioweapon that targets Chinese?
No idea...
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
My theory is that the Chinese government has been killing people who contracted the virus in an effort to stop its spread, instead of treating them. The rationale would be even if the sick people are in a hospital for treatment they could still spread the virus to medical personnel. If they're dead and buried in mass graves that's no longer possible.
sedrosken
Florida Man
@jtr1962 I wouldn't be surprised if that is indeed the case. It would horrify me, but it wouldn't shock me at all. And considering that the numbers are in all likelihood far worse than the Chinese government is letting on... this is really starting to scare me.
I'm afraid I'm still a bit out of the loop... outside the Chinese deaths, where did the other two occur? I imagine I'd have heard about it -- firmly rooted under my rock as I am -- if it were here in the States.
I'm afraid I'm still a bit out of the loop... outside the Chinese deaths, where did the other two occur? I imagine I'd have heard about it -- firmly rooted under my rock as I am -- if it were here in the States.
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
Exactly. Communist governments aren't exactly known for caring much about the lives of their citizens. If they think it might help stop the virus by killing infected people, they won't hesitate to do so.
Actually, four deaths outside China so far. One each in Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, and France. That's out of 697 cases outside China. The mortality rate then is ~0.6%. 1,662 deaths out of 68,347 cases in China, which is a 2.4% mortality rate.
The real worry from experts is that this might mutate into something with a higher mortality rate. Given the long incubation period without symptoms if it's coupled with a high mortality rate this could be pretty bad. If it doesn't mutate we should be out of the woods within a few months.
We might have a vaccine soon, but so far no drug company has said they're willing to manufacture it.
Chewy509
Wotty wot wot.
Going off on a side topic, with mail/package restrictions out of China now in force (for most countries), how long do we think prices for goods at the local stores will remain as they are? (As stock can't be replenished for goods made in China, what is pricing going to be like in 1-3-6 months)?
And will this event be a reason for local governments to attempt to restart localised manufacturing bases? (And this is not for just electronics, but power tools, furniture, anything plastic, fabrics, clothing, etc).
Could this event be a catalyst for a global recession?
And will this event be a reason for local governments to attempt to restart localised manufacturing bases? (And this is not for just electronics, but power tools, furniture, anything plastic, fabrics, clothing, etc).
Could this event be a catalyst for a global recession?
Stereodude
Not really a
There will probably be a lot of empty shelves in a few months. Prices will rise as things start to thin.
Maybe, but unfortunately memories are short and the amount of time to bring things back and get local manufacturing running again is long.
It's likely.
time
Storage? I am Storage!
The first link is a puff piece (i.e. bullsh*t), the second includes a quote that says a vaccine is at least a year away, and that's assuming a large pharmaceutical company is onboard.
China might be 'out of the woods' in a few months, but the epidemic has yet to even get going in other countries. *If* it turns out to be a mostly Winter disease, then it will hit most countries in about 9-10 months time when Winter returns to the Northern Hemisphere.
time
Storage? I am Storage!
I think that what is happening on the quarantined cruise ship, Diamond Princess, is a microcosm of what is likely to come. From Wikipedia:
On 20 January 2020 an 80-year-old guest from Hong Kong embarked in Yokohama, sailed one segment of the itinerary, and disembarked in Hong Kong on 25 January. Six days after leaving the ship, he visited a local Hong Kong hospital, where he later tested positive for COVID-19 on 1 February.
On the next voyage, on 4 February 2020, the ship was in Japanese waters when 10 passengers were diagnosed with the virus. For some, the only contact with the 80-year old was in sharing the same bus. A total of 3,700 passengers and crew were quarantined by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for what was expected to be a 14-day period, off the Port of Yokohama.
On 7 February, the total number of people on board with confirmed COVID-19 infections grew to 61.
Another three cases were detected on 8 February, bringing the total to 64.
Six cases were detected on 9 February, while another 65 were detected on 10 February, bringing the total to 135.
On 11 February, 39 more people tested positive for COVID-19, including the case of one quarantine officer, bringing the total to 174. Passengers with confirmed cases were reported to be taken ashore for treatment.
On 13 February, 44 more people tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total to 218.
On 15 February, 67 more people were reported to be infected, bringing the total to 285.
On 16 February, 70 more passengers and crew tested positive for the virus (38 have no symptoms), bringing the total to 355. Affected people are removed to isolation wards onshore. This is nearly 10% of the original complement of 3700 passengers and crew, and various countries are moving to evacuate their citizens from the ship.
No-one from the ship has died yet. What's probably more concerning is that, based on Chinese data, one in every 7 confirmed cases becomes ill enough to require hospitalization. China is currently treating over 11,000 people with COVIC-19 that are 'seriously ill'. In all likelihood, this is why the death rate is so high - even with the emergency field hospitals they hurriedly built, they are still short several thousand beds. They have at least 1500 doctors and nurses struck down with the virus already. Under these conditions, people with viral pneumonia etc are less likely to survive.
On 20 January 2020 an 80-year-old guest from Hong Kong embarked in Yokohama, sailed one segment of the itinerary, and disembarked in Hong Kong on 25 January. Six days after leaving the ship, he visited a local Hong Kong hospital, where he later tested positive for COVID-19 on 1 February.
On the next voyage, on 4 February 2020, the ship was in Japanese waters when 10 passengers were diagnosed with the virus. For some, the only contact with the 80-year old was in sharing the same bus. A total of 3,700 passengers and crew were quarantined by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for what was expected to be a 14-day period, off the Port of Yokohama.
On 7 February, the total number of people on board with confirmed COVID-19 infections grew to 61.
Another three cases were detected on 8 February, bringing the total to 64.
Six cases were detected on 9 February, while another 65 were detected on 10 February, bringing the total to 135.
On 11 February, 39 more people tested positive for COVID-19, including the case of one quarantine officer, bringing the total to 174. Passengers with confirmed cases were reported to be taken ashore for treatment.
On 13 February, 44 more people tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total to 218.
On 15 February, 67 more people were reported to be infected, bringing the total to 285.
On 16 February, 70 more passengers and crew tested positive for the virus (38 have no symptoms), bringing the total to 355. Affected people are removed to isolation wards onshore. This is nearly 10% of the original complement of 3700 passengers and crew, and various countries are moving to evacuate their citizens from the ship.
No-one from the ship has died yet. What's probably more concerning is that, based on Chinese data, one in every 7 confirmed cases becomes ill enough to require hospitalization. China is currently treating over 11,000 people with COVIC-19 that are 'seriously ill'. In all likelihood, this is why the death rate is so high - even with the emergency field hospitals they hurriedly built, they are still short several thousand beds. They have at least 1500 doctors and nurses struck down with the virus already. Under these conditions, people with viral pneumonia etc are less likely to survive.
DrunkenBastard
Storage is cool
What I don't understand is why every single person on the ship wasn't tested. They've been doing some kind of staged testing based on age etc. Each batch of testing finds more. Surely they can get enough test kits to get them all done at once.
Presumably the ventilation system keeps each room closely linked to the next. Definitely want the balcony rooms instead of inside cabins for this one.
Presumably the ventilation system keeps each room closely linked to the next. Definitely want the balcony rooms instead of inside cabins for this one.
Stereodude
Not really a
Supposedly they don't have enough kits to test everyone. That's what being reported in the news. Leaving the ship and getting on a plane to fly to the US with people you've been quarantined from for almost 2 weeks already, who haven't been tested, only to have to spend another 14 days in quarantine in the US doesn't sound like a great strategy.
Stereodude
Not really a
The US gov't officials seem awfully proud of the fact there haven't been any new coronavirus cases in 2 weeks in the US. They apparently forgot to mention they pretty much aren't testing anyone. They've only tested 426 people. As a point of contrast South Korea has tested >35,000 people. Its easy to not find something when you're not looking for it.
Any sample sent to the CDC to be tested is discarded unless a link to another case or China can be established.
The kits they sent out to the states don't work / were flawed. The hits just keep on rolling...
Any sample sent to the CDC to be tested is discarded unless a link to another case or China can be established.
The kits they sent out to the states don't work / were flawed. The hits just keep on rolling...
Chewy509
Wotty wot wot.
Stereodude
Not really a
The HHS press conference yesterday was a lesson in political tap dancing. Saying everything while saying nothing. They can claim to have covered all possible positions.
Chewy509
Wotty wot wot.
It's starting to look like the US reaction is to look like they are doing something, while doing nothing at all...
Does the CDC not already have policy/plans for this sort of issue? I would hope that they do?
Does the CDC not already have policy/plans for this sort of issue? I would hope that they do?
Stereodude
Not really a
The best made plans are no match for gov't incompetence. It's a super fine line to try to walk. Do too little and you'll be criticized for not taking it seriously. Do too much and you'll be criticized for overreacting.
Stereodude
Not really a
That's too far out as this point, but it could happen if things keep intensifying.
Chewy509
Wotty wot wot.
Looks like some analysts are worried about this as well...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/23/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
Personally I think we should shut down the markets for the duration of this to prevent panic selling. And we probably should suspend international air travel as well.
DrunkenBastard
Storage is cool
It's possible. Right now they are limiting a bunch of the test events at Olympic facilities to Japanese residents only.
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
Most likely postponed, not cancelled. If they end up having them in the fall, or even next spring or summer, it's not the end of the world.
Newtun
Storage is nice, especially if it doesn't rotate
From Ars Technica:
Facebook is canceling its massive F8 developers' conference over fears of COVID-19. The conference had been scheduled to begin on May 5 in San Jose, California.
Facebook is canceling its massive F8 developers' conference over fears of COVID-19. The conference had been scheduled to begin on May 5 in San Jose, California.
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Stereodude
Not really a
That wouldn't work. Or at least history shows it won't work.
Maybe, maybe not... In a week we'll probably know more. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised that this hasn't progressed faster.
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
So am I. So far, it looks like the bulk of cases by far are confined to China.
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
I'm thinking of potentially bigger problem. What if the virus mutates and turns people into zombies instead of killing them? There will be no stopping it at that point.
Stereodude
Not really a
Did you watch 28 Days Later last night?
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
Nope but I saw one of the Resident Evil movies. Pretty much the same thing. I have nightmares of this virus turning people into zombies hell bent on having me for a snack.
Stereodude
Not really a
Is that why the Chinese are burning the bodies before they can turn?
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
I never thought of that but you might be right.
Newtun
Storage is nice, especially if it doesn't rotate
WHO raises global coronavirus alert as US faceplants
There are now four possible community-spread cases of COVID-19 in the US.
arstechnica.com
I just got back from attending the 2019 PAX East and Sony pulled out of the convention due to coronavirus concerns. There were plenty of people wearing a variety of different face masks all around. No real scare or concern was communicated otherwise during the convention. Mainly just signs posted about containing the flu by washing hands and using hand sanitizer, which there was plenty of all around.
In other US-based COVID-19 news, the US has a record loss in the Dow and S&P500 (dropped 12% and 11%) marking their worst weekly performance since the financial crisis.
www.cnbc.com
There is also this article regarding U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says.
In other US-based COVID-19 news, the US has a record loss in the Dow and S&P500 (dropped 12% and 11%) marking their worst weekly performance since the financial crisis.
The Dow lost 12% in one week. Here's why and what likely happens next
Stocks suffered a historic pullback this week as the coronavirus spread outside of China, spooking investors and traders out of equities.
There is also this article regarding U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says.
DrunkenBastard
Storage is cool
Looks like GDC is being delayed to later in the summer from next month. And the Geneva Motor Show cancelled.
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
If we're going to start asking people to pay for their quarantine that virtually guarantees the virus will spread. If we really want to have a hope of containing this, the government should not only pay for quarantine, but pay for any uncovered sick days, as well as force the employer to guarantee that person will have a job to go back to after they leave quarantine. I understand the situation workers are in. With limited or no sick days, you have few options. I recall going to work when I could hardly stand up because I couldn't afford to miss a day's pay.
The political party in charge is for less government. That will be considered socialistic, so good luck with that man.
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
If the government's requiring you to do something, they should pay for it regardless of political philosophy.
Stereodude
Not really a
Like requiring you to pay taxes?