Coronavirus

Handruin

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@jtr1962 this might interest you a little. There are compromises being discussed regarding a small part of your interest in college tuition. This isn't exactly the tuition/loan forgiveness you are asking for but it's a small movement in that direction.

(CNN)Joe Biden is partially embracing progressives' call for free public college tuition, backing a plan to make universities tuition-free for those whose families make less than $125,000 per year.
The former vice president's move, announced by senior aides on a call with reporters hours before his Sunday night debate with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, is Biden's latest olive branch to the left as he attempts to consolidate the party behind him and pivot to a general election against President Donald Trump.
 

jtr1962

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Thanks Doug. That's a good start. Remember loan forgiveness is only part of the equation. If college continues to be very costly we'll be right back in the same situation 10 or 20 years from now. Free public university might start putting some downward pressure on what private colleges can charge. Ending student loans will help even more.

Also note that as I discussed with SD and snowhiker, loan forgiveness is more a matter of semantics. I think my proposal is better than outright loan forgiveness. The idea is lots of people already paid more than enough to pay off their loans had the payments been applied more in their favor. Those who didn't pay a dime will still owe principal, plus a reasonable rate of interest, under my proposal. That seems fair. Those who at least made a effort to repay their loans will see their balances dramatically reduced, perhaps even eliminated. And all the stupid collection companies that preyed on people will be out of business for good.
 

Handruin

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My viewpoints are somewhat in line with SD in terms of people need to be more diligent in understanding the actual cost of the education they are pursuing. It's as if grade school needs to educate students on the real world impact of finances and debt before jumping into a huge student loan to get any kind of degree.

I would be ok with existing loans being forgiven but it must come with a remediation plan to prevent this happening again or we will be right back in the same position. I'm not claiming to have a solution; I don't believe loan forgiveness by itself is the answer. If the government can bail out banks/airlines/etc they can bail out the mistakes of citizens as long as there is a plan to keep the cycle from continuing.
 

jtr1962

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If the government can bail out banks/airlines/etc they can bail out the mistakes of citizens as long as there is a plan to keep the cycle from continuing.
That's my position as well. Whatever is done with loans/tuition, it has to have measures put in place to make sure this situation never happens again. The irony here is we did bail out the banks and they eventually went back to the same shit which caused 2008. The financial hit from this pandemic would have been a lot less if we weren't so overleveraged.
 

Handruin

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From https://www.anandtech.com/show/15633/covid-19-toms-hardware-2020-folding-at-home-race:

Folding@Home, a long-standing distributed computing project, recent added COVID-19-related research tasks to its list of projects.​
I've been running folding at home for a few days now for this reason. Getting work units to process has been difficult due to supply and infrastructure issues. The F@H team indicated they are working on it via their twitter account. The F@H stat page has also been problematic and constantly unavailable. I don't think they are able to cope with the amount of people lending their systems to help.
 

DrunkenBastard

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That's my position as well. Whatever is done with loans/tuition, it has to have measures put in place to make sure this situation never happens again. The irony here is we did bail out the banks and they eventually went back to the same shit which caused 2008. The financial hit from this pandemic would have been a lot less if we weren't so overleveraged.
SUNY colleges have been "free" for NY residents for a little while now, in addition to vocational colleges. I don't see a reason to spend 100k plus for a piece of paper from an Ivy League college.
 

snowhiker

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Total confirmed cases was just under 200k (198k'ish) earlier this A.M. Now it's at 215k. Maximize the bottom-right panel. The exponential growth does not look good. HOPEFULLY growth will level out like China's growth has the last month.

Italy (pop. 60m), a country with less than 1/20 the population of China (1.42b) has nearly as many deaths! Fuck.
Damn. Over 242k cases now. Italy reported nearly 500 additional deaths and has surpassed the "reported" cases in China. Fuck.

If you look at on a logarithmic scale the growth is already leveling out. Doubtless there are lots of people who got it before we implemented emergency measures, and will later be added to the case count, but I think the growth is going to top out within a few weeks, provided we don't relax restrictions or get complacent.
Take another look. I don't see much leveling out. The actual reported cases for areas outside of China looks like y=e^x. I'm hoping it will level out soon but we may have a few or several more weeks of growth before that takes place.

Now Italy is ahead of China in total deaths, despite having only 4.3% of the population. :cry:
Yes sad.

On a side note I think there is going to be some very long term resentment and outright hatred of China by the Italian people (and other countries) if any credible evidence comes out (confirmed by multiple sources/countries) that China acted improperly or covered up the initial COVID-19 outbreak. Still too early to tell what the geo-political and financial implication will be.
 

jtr1962

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On a side note I think there is going to be some very long term resentment and outright hatred of China by the Italian people (and other countries) if any credible evidence comes out (confirmed by multiple sources/countries) that China acted improperly or covered up the initial COVID-19 outbreak. Still too early to tell what the geo-political and financial implication will be.
If I had to be angry at China, it would be for not shutting down the wet markets for good after the SARS outbreak. You would think they would have learned their lesson but no. If I want China to do anything, it would be to publicly execute the officials who made that decision, along with the ones who covered up the initial COVID-19 outbreak.

That said, if this ends up worse than it otherwise would have been in the US or elsewhere, I want the same treatment given to those responsible in other countries. Public hanging. We have to send a message that this can't happen again.
 

Chewy509

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Re: Tertiary Education and loans.

To give a different perspective, in Australia loans for Tertiary Education is managed by the Taxation department, (repayments are managed as part of your annual tax), were payments are deducted as part of your paycheck based on income over the year (if you so choose), or can be a lump sum payment deducted from your tax return each year. Annual payment is indexed based on income, and you only have to make payment if your income is above a certain amount. All loans are interest free, and technically have no mandated minimum repayment or repayment time frame, however you can IIRC only have 1 loan at a time. (there are conditions to get additional funds for additional courses/degrees, but the entire loan amount is capped).

Typically most students will deduct the loan payment each pay, and will have paid for their degree in 3-4 years.

Course fees are capped by the Government, and IIRC when I did my degree it was less than AU$14,000 per year (current figures is maximum AU$106K for the entire loan, but many degrees are capped in the ~AU$42-50K range for an entire 3yr degree program - with medicine/vet science having max caps of AU$150K for the entire loan and degree program).

So someone doing a standard BSc, BEng or BIT (Bachelor or IT), would only have a loan of ~AU$50K max at the end of it. (Note: minimum wage in Australia is AU$38Ka assuming full time hours before tax, or AU$19.50 per hour before tax). Loan repayment starts when you earn over AU$45K pa...

If you pay for your course upfront you can get up to a maximum 50% discount on course fees (this is one of the reasons the loans are classed as interest free, since an interest amount is built into the total amount owing).

In contrast, if you look to Europe, many countries either have very similar schemes to Australia, IIRC Germany is pretty similar to Australia, but loans are discharged/voided if you can't repay in IIRC 7 years. Many of the Scandinavian countries, the government covers the entire bill, or the course fees are capped at less than US$1K per semester (US$6K for the entire course).

So do you believe an Australia style system could possible work in the US?
 

time

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If I had to be angry at China, it would be for not shutting down the wet markets for good after the SARS outbreak.
You're repeating a furphy. The first COVID-19 case was never anywhere near that market, it's just that the congregation of people at the market created the first cluster, and people naturally enough jumped to conclusions.

There's no shortage of things to condemn China about, but getting excited on the basis of bullshit information undermines the valid criticisms.
 

time

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Re: Tertiary Education and loans.

To give a different perspective, in Australia loans for Tertiary Education is managed by the Taxation department, (repayments are managed as part

Typically most students will deduct the loan payment each pay, and will have paid for their degree in 3-4 years.

Course fees are capped by the Government, and IIRC when I did my degree it was less than AU$14,000 per year (current figures is maximum

So someone doing a standard BSc, BEng or BIT (Bachelor or IT), would only have a loan of ~AU$50K max at the end of it. (Note: minimum wage in Australia is AU$38Ka assuming full time hours before tax, or AU$19.50 per hour before tax). Loan repayment starts when you earn over AU$45K pa...

So do you believe an Australia style system could possible work in the US?
Not sure about some of your numbers here. Firstly, it's worth pointing out that the Aussie dollar is only worth 59 US cents. So everything costs about 2/3 more than it does in the US (excluding the 10% sales tax or GST).

Secondly, the minimum repayment is on a sliding scale; a graduate making $71,000 (US$42k) will face at least $3200 pA, or $9600 if they're lucky enough to get to $113k (US$67k).

Thirdly, only the well-off are clearing a $50000 debt in 3-4 years. For most people, it cripples them financially for several years or sometimes forever.

Thirdly, the government charges an effective interest rate of 1.8% compounding, but calls it indexing to avoid political fallout.

Finally, like the worst of the US debts, there is absolutely no way to get this debt waived. When you die, your estate has to make payments up to the time of your death. There are often political discussions about liquidating people's estates to put towards any outstanding study debts.
 

Chewy509

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Thirdly, only the well-off are clearing a $50000 debt in 3-4 years. For most people, it cripples them financially for several years or sometimes forever.

Finally, like the worst of the US debts, there is absolutely no way to get this debt waived. When you die, your estate has to make payments up to the time of your death. There are often political discussions about liquidating people's estates to put towards any outstanding study debts.
Granted, if you're only paying $3K pa, then yes, it's going to take 15+yrs to pay off... And probably cripple some... (eg pretty hard to get a home loan, if you owe the government $40K+, but then again if you can't afford to repay your HECS debt, should you be getting a home loan in the first place)?

That last point is the one that bothers me most... If you die, the debt should be voided... But if you can't repay the debt in 10+yrs, then was the degree worth the government backing a loan against? Should the government cover loans for education that has no real marketable or return on investment value?
 

DrunkenBastard

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It seems odd that Morisson is refusing to close schools in Australia like the rest of the world has done. They could switch over to just being daycare for parents in critical health care jobs etc like they are doing in the UK.
 

Stereodude

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There's no shortage of things to condemn China about, but getting excited on the basis of bullshit information undermines the valid criticisms.
There's no doubt this thing came out of China. Where, in Wuhan we don't exactly know and we may never know.
 

Newtun

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Folding@Home, a long-standing distributed computing project, recent added COVID-19-related research tasks to its list of projects.
I've been running folding at home for a few days now for this reason.
Wouldn't it be great if the major Cloud Computing providers (Like AIM: Amazon/AWS, IBM, Microsoft) would donate a tiny fraction of their massive cloudy data-processing power to COVID-19 research projects?
 

Handruin

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Wouldn't it be great if the major Cloud Computing providers (Like AIM: Amazon/AWS, IBM, Microsoft) would donate a tiny fraction of their massive cloudy data-processing power to COVID-19 research projects?
There has been some discussion of that happening from a week ago. Unfortunately some of those details are only shared on their facebook page. Here is one of the posts from Nat Friedman from github discussion their donations:

Starting later today, GitHub is donating up to 60,000 core-hours per day of idle GitHub Actions compute capacity to Folding@Home's efforts to find drug treatments for 2019-nCOV.
On Facebook:

Thank you, everyone, for joining the fight vs #COVID19! We are seeing a tremendous increase of computing power. We are doing our best on the backend to fix hiccups and are getting help from GitHub Microsoft CoreWeave
Your response has been overwhelming! kindly bare with us
 

jtr1962

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Cuomo just announced he's shutting down NY apart from essential workers starting Sunday night. Waiting to see the exceptions.
He should have did this at least two weeks ago when everyone saw what was happening in Italy. Better late than never, but most likely the end result is thousands of cases which otherwise wouldn't have existed.
 

Newtun

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Coronavirus comes for spring break:


Don't those kids watch/read the news, or are they all just stupid? Colleges are closed; don't they consider what "souvenirs" they might be bringing home to their families (older parents, or grandparents), or the reason colleges (and so much else) are closed?
 

jtr1962

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US cases will explode, as we are finally starting widespread testing. I'm expecting we will top 100K cases in a week or so.
There's a lot of misunderstanding and panic over that. We have to keep in mind the majority of cases we find in a week or so already existed. We just didn't know about them until we started testing. And speaking of testing, this administration needs to be hung out to dry over that. We knew about the outbreak in China in January. We should have started manufacturing millions of test kits then so we would be ready when/if it hit our shores in large numbers. If we had started tested early, we could have isolated many cases and slowed the spread.

I personally think your numbers are optimistic. I think we'll end up with 500K to 1M cases and over 10,000 deaths in the US before this passes. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.
 

Stereodude

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I went out to do some grocery shopping today. I managed to get what I wanted, but had I been after TP, paper towels, wipes, hand sanitizer, etc. I wouldn't have gotten any of them. The grocery section of the superstore was hit pretty hard. Produce and fruit were nicely stocked. The rest of the store was hit hard, like the pasta, frozen food, canned food, meat, etc. Costco looked fairly well stocked from what I saw aside from virus supplies.
 

sdbardwick

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I personally think your numbers are optimistic. I think we'll end up with 500K to 1M cases and over 10,000 deaths in the US before this passes. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.
My estimate is just 100k total reported cases in about a week. NIH estimated 70K by next Friday. Obviously the number of actual infections is some multiplier of that. Wouldn't be surprised if total number of reported infections is over 2 million by end of August. If testing becomes unrestrained by test kit supply, the reported number could be even higher.
 

time

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There's no doubt this thing came out of China. Where, in Wuhan we don't exactly know and we may never know.
Agreed. It typically takes years after the event to reconstruct the zoonotic leap. And for all we know the virus mutated when it spread from say, Patient Zero to the next victim. Cap all that off with the information black hole that is China.
 

Newtun

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We have to keep in mind the majority of cases we find in a week or so already existed. We just didn't know about them until we started testing.
So the good news is that the U.S. death rate from COVID-19 infections will presumably go down, since we will have a more accurate count of those infected, as the "denominator" of that rate.

Unfortunately, from family-ar experience, just having the tests available is only the first step; being able to get a test processed is another big step. In my case, our family will have to wait a week to get the results of the test.
 

time

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Wouldn't be surprised if total number of reported infections is over 2 million by end of August. If testing becomes unrestrained by test kit supply, the reported number could be even higher.
Left relatively unconstrained, the numbers have been shown to double about every 4 days. So one million reported in the USA by the end of April is by no means impossible. However, I assume there will be a total lockdown in the next couple of weeks, which should limit the end of the month to a completely wild guess of maybe 250,000? Certainly Italy has taken less than 50 days to go from zero to 50,000 reported, and it's been blatantly obvious that they have many, many times the number of reported cases (the rule of thumb for countries with inadequate testing/tracing is 10-20x - as volunteered by the British Prime Minister no less).
 

time

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Unfortunately, from family-ar experience, just having the tests available is only the first step; being able to get a test processed is another big step. In my case, our family will have to wait a week to get the results of the test.
I have had some minor cold/flu symptoms for more than a week, and I have underlying conditions that make me vulnerable. The severe rationing of tests in Oz means there is no way I can get one, unless I develop pneumonia. And as you say, if I somehow could get a test, it takes a week to get the results.

The Australian government proudly announced that it had purchased 100,000 test kits. Australia has a population of 25 million.

South Korea is doing 20,000 tests every day.
 

Chewy509

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I have had some minor cold/flu symptoms for more than a week,
I had a flu about 3 weeks ago, and still have a dry cough from it... The looks on people faces when I cough, sometimes is surprising... (The last few flu's I've had, whilst over the initial virus in under a week, tend to have a dry cough for 4-5 weeks following)...

Note: As some of you are aware, my wife has what one medical specialist described as a "complex medical condition", and is in the extreme risk category, so we're being extra careful at the moment... In some ways, the way people are dealing with social distancing, cleaning hands and common surfaces, has been a normal for us, for at least the last few years, due to my wife's medical needs... :(
 

sedrosken

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I called out from work yesterday because I had a cough. Nothing serious, though I did have a fever and swollen lymph nodes, and normally I'd work through it -- I can't afford to miss, and we don't have the people to cover my absence, but I figured the current climate would be very inhospitable to that sort of thing so I used the Teladoc services work provides for us and sent in the doctors note they gave me. My fever's gone but my throat's still scratchy. I have to go in today, we already have a call-in and my note only excused me for yesterday.
 

Handruin

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Trump seems even more unhinged lately and not being a leader in a time of crisis for this pandemic. Snapping at Peter Alexander while leading with a reasonable question when asking about what do you say to Americans who are scared. This isn't being a leader in a crisis, this is being narcissistic when this isn't about him.

Later in the same press conference when the same question is asked of VP Mike Pence...you get a great response with someone who shows how to be a leader in a time of a crisis and be empathetic. I'm not a big fan of Pence, but credit here where it is due. This is how a leader should respond and manage a crisis by being clear, stick to the known facts, and help people know where things are at. He was clear and non-sensationalist with his answer and well spoken; well done.
 

Stereodude

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Trump seems even more unhinged lately and not being a leader in a time of crisis for this pandemic. Snapping at Peter Alexander while leading with a reasonable question when asking about what do you say to Americans who are scared. This isn't being a leader in a crisis, this is being narcissistic when this isn't about him.
Conveniently, you left out the setup and the context that lead to that response.

Unhinged? He barely raises his voice... Additionally, it's kind of weird to accuse someone of narcissism when the person asking the question set the stage and asked the questions about him. You make it sound like someone asked a medical question of Dr. Fauci and Trump ran to the podium to answer the question instead and made it all about himself.
 

jtr1962

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In all fairness if you move ahead a few minutes it looks like their past history is playing a part. Let's not kids ourselves. For a lot of people in the media this is a sensationist's wet dream. That's doubly true because now the news networks have no competition from things like live sports, so doubtless their ratings are up.

And at 0:53 or so who comes out in favor of restricting bailouts being used for stock buybacks like they were with his corporate tax cut.

That said, I find this a lot more disturbing than anything the media has done:


All the assholes who hoarded essential medical supplies thinking they could make a quick buck are now costing people's lives. We can trace the people who hoarded large amounts of masks, hand sanitizer, alcohol, etc. We should do so after this crisis is over, and severely punish them (i.e. at least decades in jail, better yet executions). It's disgusting that some bottom-feeding lowlifes are using this crisis to line their pockets.
 

Handruin

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Conveniently, you left out the setup and the context that lead to that response.

Unhinged? He barely raises his voice... Additionally, it's kind of weird to accuse someone of narcissism when the person asking the question set the stage and asked the questions about him. You make it sound like someone asked a medical question of Dr. Fauci and Trump ran to the podium to answer the question instead and made it all about himself.
Yeah that's unhinged. The bar is typically high for a president even though we are all used to a pretty low bar because of Trump. He made it about himself, not the topic at hand. The leading question and intent was a pitch to have Trump reassure the country... Yet he made it a personal vendetta to attack a reporter in his typical idiotic way serving no one but himself.

I'm pretty sure you missed the point. You may not be the type of person who can identify personality traits like narcissism so I won't hold it against you. This was to show you how a leader and a president should be responding using examples of people in the same party so that it wasn't a Dem is better than a Rep comparison. Good job missing it.

I did not make it sound like whatever you described; you're confused. None the less, you focused on the the wrong part like usual which is the example of how to be a leader and how to not be a leader. Well done.
 
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