Coronavirus

Stereodude

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The US is now at #1 in total cases, although a lot of countries are still way ahead of us in terms of cases per 1M population. Considering China has 1.4 billion people, they actually got through this fairly well.
If you believe the Chinese numbers I have a bridge to sell you.

Italy also changed the way they were reporting the numbers some weeks ago to not count positive test results who were asymptomatic. The US is not doing that.
 
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Stereodude

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NYS approves two patients on one ventilator....now this didn't seem like it would work out too well to me, and apparently it won't.


Why would you potentially do harm to two patients instead of converting over the 70,000 anesthesia machines?
I guess Cuomo should have bought those ventilators in 2015 instead of using the money on a solar panel factory.
 

time

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If you believe the Chinese numbers I have a bridge to sell you.
If you believe the American numbers you must be an American.

It's pretty easy to show that the reported cases are a fraction of actual cases. Not through deception like China, but sheer lack of testing.

Italy also changed the way they were reporting the numbers some weeks ago to not count positive test results who were asymptomatic.
Source? While looking for one I found this gem of an article from 28 days ago:


650 confirmed cases and 15 deaths in Italy ... at that time. I note that the politicians in this article still have their jobs.
 

Stereodude

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If you believe the American numbers you must be an American.
I believe they're accurate for the number of people they've tested. I'm also certain they're not representative of the actual number of cases. This is likely true in every country where the outbreaks are happening. A country like Taiwan probably has good accurate numbers.

It's pretty easy to show that the reported cases are a fraction of actual cases. Not through deception like China, but sheer lack of testing.
There's plenty of testing available if you're an asymptomatic celebrity or athlete in the US. If you're a plebe and you've got several of the reported symptoms but don't need hospitalization, in some areas. Good luck! They'll just tell you to quarantine yourself. You won't be getting tested.

Source? While looking for one I found this gem of an article from 28 days ago:


650 confirmed cases and 15 deaths in Italy ... at that time. I note that the politicians in this article still have their jobs.
You found it, though my memory of what it said seems to be slightly off. The article says, "Italian health officials are making another change in their testing protocols that may slow the growth of new case numbers. The country expects to limit coronavirus testing to at-risk people showing symptoms of COVID-19, said Giuseppe Ippolito, scientific director at Italy’s National Institute for Infectious Diseases."
 

jtr1962

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Under its newest COVID-19 prevention guidelines, China does not include in its overall daily count for total and for new cases those who retest positive after being released from medical care. China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.

"I have no idea why the authorities choose not to count [asymptomatic] cases in the official case count. I am baffled," said one of the Wuhan doctors who had a second positive test after recovering.


That might explain their numbers. Probably the real case count is in the hundreds of thousands, not counting those who were/are asymptomatic but were never tested.
 

Stereodude

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That might explain their numbers. Probably the real case count is in the hundreds of thousands, not counting those who were/are asymptomatic but were never tested.
China also just stopped testing at some point. The US has actually tested the largest number of people of any country so far which likely is a contributing factor to the largest number of cases also.
 

time

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Yes, the US has finally got their testing regime underway and we are seeing some results. Two problems: a) the US has several times the population of most other countries so will need to do several times more tests, and b) it is starting from a far higher population penetration, so it will need many times the number of tests that South Korea did when they started bulk testing.

Insurmountable? Probably, but the alternative doesn't bear thinking about.
 

time

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It seems there is not really a large difference in death rates as you might think by just looking at current data.

Some (including the now infamous WHO) are just dividing cumulative deaths into cumulative confirmed cases. This is meaningless while the epidemic is still underway because it takes an average of 14 days from onset of symptoms until someone dies (and sometimes more than double that). So the two numbers you see reported, Confirmed Cases and Deaths, are from two very different points in time. In the space of 14 days, the number of actual cases will increase by between 16 and 32 times (doubling every 2.8 to 3.5 days).

The actual CFR (Case Fatality Rate) appears to stay in a fairly small band centered around 2%. It may well be lower when reviewed in years to come. There are as yet unproven theories that smokers do not do well, which could mean it's definitely less than 2% for non-smokers. The effect of differences in medical care may well be overstated. Most modern medical support consists of antibiotics to ward off secondary infections, and all modern hospitals can do that, along with oxygen assistance. You need to remember that there are no antivirals or any other medication that have been shown to have any positive effect on outcomes, although certainly there have been some with negative effects.

The benefit of ventilators seems to be greatly overstated. A ventilator does not do what people commonly assume it to do - it's a pressurization tool that requires a team of specialists to keep a single patient alive on one. A patient is only put on a ventilator as a last resort - it may kill you. When there are few cases, it might reduce the fatality rate by a third or so (certainly less than half from what I have been able to glean).

One extrapolation from all this is that you can estimate how many actual cases must have existed two weeks ago to cause a given number of fatalities today. While the numbers are increasing at such a phenomenal rate, you can get a really crude idea of what's happening by just looking at the cumulative numbers. Looking at Italy, for example, currently with 8,200 deaths, you can deduce that that represents roughly 2% of the actual cases from two weeks ago, which would make that 410,000. If you then consider that the numbers multiply by at least 16 over two weeks, then it would not be unreasonable to assume there might now be 6.5 million actual case in Italy.
 

Stereodude

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They need to do a random sample test somewhere in the US. Like test a few thousand people (enough to be statistically significant and conclusive) chosen at random in an area where there are cases of community transmission and see how many of the few thousand asymptomatic people actually test positive. The US is now testing more than 100k people per day and the test capacity per day is growing. There is probably enough capacity in testing to get this data now.

Right now the data has huge uncertainty factors in it. Once they have enough good data the decision can be made on whether they're overreacting, reacting appropriately, or aren't doing enough.


From the article:
"The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%."
 

jtr1962

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Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%."
I've been guessing 0.3% to 0.5% is most likely BUT that's an evolving number as we learn better ways to treat this. I'm really hoping the true number is on the low end of the range you gave as that would imply about 4,500 deaths maximum in NYC even if everyone got it.
 

jtr1962

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The benefit of ventilators seems to be greatly overstated. A ventilator does not do what people commonly assume it to do - it's a pressurization tool that requires a team of specialists to keep a single patient alive on one. A patient is only put on a ventilator as a last resort - it may kill you. When there are few cases, it might reduce the fatality rate by a third or so (certainly less than half from what I have been able to glean).
Are there any ways to oxygenate the blood if a person's lungs are compromised to the point that a ventilator is ineffective? That might potentially be a big help here, keeping patients alive until they fight off the infection and their lungs heal enough to breathe without assistance.

Another thing not being mentioned here, probably because we first need to get this pandemic under control, is what about people whose lungs were severely damaged? We might have a bunch of new COPD cases as a result of this.
 

Stereodude

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Dr. Fauci is everywhere talking Wuhan Flu.

Outreach to Millenials and Gen Z via social influencers... Check


Outreach to sports fans... Check


Outreach to fans of "comedy"... Check

 

Handruin

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Dr. Fauci is everywhere talking Wuhan Flu.

Outreach to Millenials and Gen Z via social influencers... Check


Outreach to sports fans... Check


Outreach to fans of "comedy"... Check

Is he also calling it agent orange's trademark name, or by covid-19 like most people?
 

Stereodude

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Says the guy taking sound bites from Fox and friends for Trump redirection propaganda. Lol ok Kelly Anne Conway.
I didn't notice a denial in there, just a counter accusation. It sure seems like you'll do or say anything to oppose Trump even if it's carrying the water for one of the worse regimes in the world or detrimental to yourself or the common good. Not quite on par with the horrible governor of Michigan who's willing to kill the residents of her state to "stand up to Trump", but still totally irrational and illogical.

BTW, I don't watch Fox. It's largely a crap network of controlled opposition.
 

sedrosken

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People are sick and dying. Now is not the time to have political hang-ups. We need to get much further on constructive conversation. But alas, such is humanity.

My symptoms almost entirely cleared up by, oh, Wednesday. I've still got a little bit of congestion going on but I blame that on allergies -- it's getting warmer and I'm allergic to all kinds of pollen and dander. I'm a little worried I'd be unable to tell a shortness of breath -- I'm fat and out of shape, so that's pretty much the default for me.
 

Newtun

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That's great to hear, Ken!

And I also would like to see a reduction in the political rhetoric in this thread.

After all, who is to say who's right and who's wrong?

Oh, I am, I am, and you are. ;)
 

sedrosken

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Hah, my name is actually Jacob, I came up with this screen name as a nonsense word that looked "cool enough". This was, gosh, almost ten years ago now? Time flies.
 

jtr1962

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Glad you seem to be on the road to recovery, sed. Until this passes, every time people get sick they'll be suspecting the worst.

Here's some state-by-state testing data for anyone interested:


About 1/3 of the tests in NY and NJ are coming back positive. Given that most of the people tested probably exhibited symptoms of some sort, it's likely 10 to 20 times that many already had and recovered. That could be upwards of a million people in NYS, with most of them in NYC.
 

Stereodude

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About 1/3 of the tests in NY and NJ are coming back positive. Given that most of the people tested probably exhibited symptoms of some sort, it's likely 10 to 20 times that many already had and recovered. That could be upwards of a million people in NYS, with most of them in NYC.
That's because the officials in NYC fiddled and spread misinformation while the Wuhan Flu spread.

February 5
NYC Health Commissioner Barbot declared on Twitter, “Today our city is celebrating the Lunar New Year parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about coronavirus.”

February 6
Barbot appeared on the television program Inside City Hall and attempted to explain how likely an infected person is to transmit the virus: “The important thing for New Yorkers to know is that in the city currently, their risk is low and our city preparedness is high. So we know that this virus can be transmitted from one individual to another, but that it is typically people who live together. There is no risk at this point in time — we are always learning more — about having it being transmitted in casual contact. We’re telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the subway, go out, enjoy life, but practice everyday precautions. . . . If it were likely that it could be transmitted casually, we would be seeing a lot more cases.”

February 9
Councilman Mark D. Levine stated on Twitter, “In powerful show of defiance of coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual Lunar New Year parade. Chants of ‘Be Strong Wuhan!’ If you are staying away, you are missing out.”

February 13
Mayor de Blasio conducted a taped interview with NBC News that ran during MSNBC’s Morning Joe. He said, “We have an extraordinary public health apparatus here in New York City . . . and what became clear to me was it was really about telling the people of our city, this is something we can handle, but you got to follow some basic rules. . . . This should not stop you from going about your life. It should not stop you from going to Chinatown and going out to eat. I am going to do that today myself.”

Later that day, New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson said, “It is important to support the Chinese community in New York City. Unfortunately many businesses and restaurants in Chinatown, Flushing, and Sunset Park are suffering because some customers are afraid of the coronavirus. But those fears are not based on facts and science. The risk of infection to New Yorkers is low. There is no need to avoid public spaces. I urge everyone to dine and shop as usual.”

Excerpts from https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-timeline-of-how-bill-de-blasio-prepared-new-york-city-for-the-coronavirus/
 

Chewy509

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Unfortunately, all sides of politics are just as bad as each other...

Gone are the days of listening to experts in the field of question and coming to bipartisan agreement, to doing the opposite of the other party is doing just to say they are different or simply for point scoring. And this is across the board, not just medical...
 

jtr1962

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That's because the officials in NYC fiddled and spread misinformation while the Wuhan Flu spread.

February 5
NYC Health Commissioner Barbot declared on Twitter, “Today our city is celebrating the Lunar New Year parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about coronavirus.”

February 6
Barbot appeared on the television program Inside City Hall and attempted to explain how likely an infected person is to transmit the virus: “The important thing for New Yorkers to know is that in the city currently, their risk is low and our city preparedness is high. So we know that this virus can be transmitted from one individual to another, but that it is typically people who live together. There is no risk at this point in time — we are always learning more — about having it being transmitted in casual contact. We’re telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the subway, go out, enjoy life, but practice everyday precautions. . . . If it were likely that it could be transmitted casually, we would be seeing a lot more cases.”

February 9
Councilman Mark D. Levine stated on Twitter, “In powerful show of defiance of coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual Lunar New Year parade. Chants of ‘Be Strong Wuhan!’ If you are staying away, you are missing out.”

February 13
Mayor de Blasio conducted a taped interview with NBC News that ran during MSNBC’s Morning Joe. He said, “We have an extraordinary public health apparatus here in New York City . . . and what became clear to me was it was really about telling the people of our city, this is something we can handle, but you got to follow some basic rules. . . . This should not stop you from going about your life. It should not stop you from going to Chinatown and going out to eat. I am going to do that today myself.”

Later that day, New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson said, “It is important to support the Chinese community in New York City. Unfortunately many businesses and restaurants in Chinatown, Flushing, and Sunset Park are suffering because some customers are afraid of the coronavirus. But those fears are not based on facts and science. The risk of infection to New Yorkers is low. There is no need to avoid public spaces. I urge everyone to dine and shop as usual.”

Excerpts from https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-timeline-of-how-bill-de-blasio-prepared-new-york-city-for-the-coronavirus/
What do you expect from a completely incompetent buffoon like de Blasio? He was in over his head from day one but may well have bumbled through the last two years of his tenure if no emergencies happened. Trump's handling of this hasn't exactly been stellar, either, but compared to de Blasio he looks like a genius.

When this is over and the dust settles, I seriously want to see if we can pursue criminal charges against a lot of the elected officials who mishandled this. They were putting business above people's lives. By mid January it was pretty apparent how serious this was. China doesn't lock down an entire region unless it's a major emergency. Then and there everyone who had been in China during the last few weeks should have been quarantined 14 days, and we should have stopped all flights out of China. In fact, we should have screened everyone coming from overseas. We didn't, and now it seems many thousands of Americans have/will lose their lives.
 

Handruin

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What do you expect from a completely incompetent buffoon like de Blasio? He was in over his head from day one but may well have bumbled through the last two years of his tenure if no emergencies happened. Trump's handling of this hasn't exactly been stellar, either, but compared to de Blasio he looks like a genius.

When this is over and the dust settles, I seriously want to see if we can pursue criminal charges against a lot of the elected officials who mishandled this. They were putting business above people's lives. By mid January it was pretty apparent how serious this was. China doesn't lock down an entire region unless it's a major emergency. Then and there everyone who had been in China during the last few weeks should have been quarantined 14 days, and we should have stopped all flights out of China. In fact, we should have screened everyone coming from overseas. We didn't, and now it seems many thousands of Americans have/will lose their lives.
That would be nice to hold people accountable but that rarely happens as some would prefer. Every area has made mistakes and us regular folk are going to be stuck paying for this for many years, not just financially. We couldn't effectively screen people coming over seas back in Dec/Jan because we had no testing capabilities. We had an abundance of incompetence and misinformation campaigns leading the charge to distract us from all this.
 

jtr1962

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Wuhan residents are increasingly skeptical of the Chinese Communist Party’s reported coronavirus death count of approximately 2,500 deaths in the city to date, with most people believing the actual number is at least 40,000.
 

snowhiker

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For U.S. residents:

"Everything You Need to Know About the Stimulus Payments" I was emailed this page by the site I use for my taxes.

The IRS will use your 2019 tax return to calculate your payment. If you haven't filed your 2019 return yet (IRS filing deadline now July 15) your 2018 return will be used.

If you are on Social Security but do not need to file a return because of low income you will also receive a check. From the above linked page, "As long as you received a SSA-1099 form (the Social Security benefit statement), the federal government will send your payment the same way they send your Social Security payment. Disabled individuals are also eligible for the payment."
 

Handruin

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Wuhan residents are increasingly skeptical of the Chinese Communist Party’s reported coronavirus death count of approximately 2,500 deaths in the city to date, with most people believing the actual number is at least 40,000.
Increasingly skeptical? Those poor folks have been screwed. I really hope it isn't that bad for them, but hope offers little to nothing.
 

Handruin

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For U.S. residents:

"Everything You Need to Know About the Stimulus Payments" I was emailed this page by the site I use for my taxes.

The IRS will use your 2019 tax return to calculate your payment. If you haven't filed your 2019 return yet (IRS filing deadline now July 15) your 2018 return will be used.

If you are on Social Security but do not need to file a return because of low income you will also receive a check. From the above linked page, "As long as you received a SSA-1099 form (the Social Security benefit statement), the federal government will send your payment the same way they send your Social Security payment. Disabled individuals are also eligible for the payment."
So how does this work for people who may lose income all year? People will be getting an advanced tax credit for liability they didn't have?

How does that work?
Technically, the money is an advance of a refundable credit on your 2020 return. A refundable credit is a tax benefit you can take advantage of even if you do not owe any tax. If you qualify to claim it, any money that isn’t needed to pay down your tax liability is refunded to you. Basically, the stimulus payments are advance refunds based on your 2020 income.
 

jtr1962

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Increasingly skeptical? Those poor folks have been screwed. I really hope it isn't that bad for them, but hope offers little to nothing.
Hard to see how it wouldn't be. We're talking a city of 11 million people, probably packed in more densely on average than NYC. Just look at NYC's numbers, and where we're likely to be in a few weeks. And they probably waited until it was worse before ordering a lock down.
 

Newtun

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This had blindsided the Chinese, since it supposedly started in the Wuhan area only about 4 months ago. And we know that a fair percentage of people with the virus show no or fairly mild symptoms. It was only when the alarming number of deaths were noticed that serious research, and government action, began.

We can be fairly certain that, given their totalitarian regime, the Chinese lock down was implemented quickly and thoroughly.

When the nature of the crisis became more widely known, some other governments took early and decisive actions (e.g., Germany and South Korea).

Others did not.

I just saw this sad article today, about a large church event in France which "kicked off the biggest cluster of COVID-19 in France" . . . "the health inspectors realized they were too late." . . . "“We were overwhelmed,” said Vernay. “We realized that we had a time bomb in front of us.”"

When I was out for a (social-distanced) walk today (before the Virginia governor issued his stay-at-home order), I saw a woman wearing a T-shirt that said "Live Free or Die". Ironically, this has taken on a new meaning recently.
 

Stereodude

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That's incredibly misleading and on par for the right-wing propaganda machine. Your source is suggesting highly anecdotal evidence in relation to hydroxychloroquine being the lifeline for COVID-19 patients.
It's amazing that something that has several successful controlled clinical trials outside the US for the Wuhan Flu is being actively rooted against in the just because Trump happened to have talked it. You all are ghouls, but I suppose I shouldn't expect any better.
 

Newtun

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We can only hope and pray that this (or any other) medication can be effective against COVID-19. IIRC, production seems to be ramping up, and some pharma companies are donating large quantifies.

From Time's postings, IMHO, enhanced ventilator production seems of somewhat limited value and secondary importance.

To me, major efforts should go into massive production increases of protective gear for medical first-responders on the front lines, to try to mitigate, if not prevent, health-care providers from being completely overwhelmed.

It seems that a lot of this equipment is relatively simple to manufacture, compared to a ventilator. And a lot cheaper.
 
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