Holy Hurricane, Batman!

[sechs]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/la/nonprecipwarning.html

WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. 

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

MSZ080>082-282100-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. 
 
0NSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 3 PM AND PERSIST
FOR 24 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR 12 TO 15 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

$$

MSZ068>071-077-282100-
AMITE-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-WALTHALL-WILKINSON-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET BY SUNSET TODAY AND PERSIST
FOR 24 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR 11 TO 15 HOURS. 

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


$$

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST FOR ABOUT 26 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
ONSET AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT IN LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY 3 AM MONDAY MORNING...PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 12 TO 17
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 140 MPH CAN LAST FOR 2
TO 3 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>049-282100-
ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-
ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA...
DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND AT TIMES HURRICANE
FORCE WILL OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DURATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET AROUND 3 AM MONDAY
MORNING AND PERSIST FOR 18 TO 20 HOURS. NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
ARE LIKELY TO ONSET AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING. 

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

$$

24

 

[ddrueding]

I love California.

 

[mubs]

Nasty. There was a report a few months ago that hurricanes are increasing in strength over the last few years, and will continue to do so. The blame being laid on - what else - GW. (that's global warming, not Dubya).

 

[Bozo]

I was thinking of moving to Florida.

Arizona is starting to look better all the time

Bozo
:mrgrn:

 

[Mercutio]

Arizona is a Red State. I'll take the hurricanes.

 

[sechs]

I was wondering who the copy writer for the National Weather Service is....

 

[Santilli]

This thing is very serious. The ocean buoys are showing waves the size of giant Hawaiian surf. SOLID 20 FEET.

What Louisiana?

GS

 

[Santilli]

Oh MY F...G GOD :excl: :excl: :excl: :excl: :eekers:

THE BUOYS HIT 32 FEET. THAT'S THE SIZE OF THE BIGGEST WAVES EVER SURFED. THIS IS APPROACHING THE PERFECT STORM, BUT IT WENT 51 FEET, AND THEN THE BUOYS GOT PULLED UP...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=26.0N&lon1=88.1W&dist=250&time=3

WATCH THIS PLACE. IT GIVES YOU WAVE HEIGHTS, AND THEY ARE CHANGING, ALL THE TIME...

Greg

 

[P5-133XL]

Get your Gasoline now, for tomorrow will be too late.

 

[Santilli]

That's no joke Mark. The rigs weren't designed for giant, Hawaii sized waves, and what is it called, force 3 tornados???
:eekers:

Greg

 

[sechs]

There's plenty of oil. What percentage of our daily intake is actually produced here?

 

[Mercutio]

Well, the good news is, the Hurricane will be pushing some of the fertilizer-encrusted topsoil that normally drains down the Mississippi and into the Gulf Coast Dead Zone back inland.

 

[Santilli]

There's plenty of oil. What percentage of our daily intake is actually produced here?

I think it's a million gallons a day. :eekers:

Greg

 

[Santilli]

JUST HIT 38 FEET ON THE ALABAMA BUOY. SAY GOOD BYE TO LOUISIANA, AS WE KNOW IT...

:eekers:

GS

 

[jtr1962]

Just saw 40 feet on bouy 42040 and wind gusts to 83 knots on one of the other bouys. This is starting to remind me of The Day After Tomorrow.

 

[Santilli]

Just saw 40 feet on bouy 42040 and wind gusts to 83 knots on one of the other bouys. This is starting to remind me of The Day After Tomorrow.

Just got up. Can't get the buoy reading, but, this looks like New Orleans is getting the eye of the storm..

God help us all.

Gs

 

[Santilli]

NO is completely screwed

I was a little hazy on my geography, but Katrina's eye is passing OVER New Orleans. God help all those people...

GS

 

[Santilli]

OH MY GOD! WATCH THIS!!!
http://www.quehubo.com/eng/katrina_gallery.php

gs

 

[Santilli]

Just found out that area produces 3.7 million barrels of oil a day, and, there are near 20 refineries in the area, that make gas out of that oil...

gs

 

[Santilli]

Just saw 40 feet on bouy 42040 and wind gusts to 83 knots on one of the other bouys. This is starting to remind me of The Day After Tomorrow.

I can't get through to NOAA. If you can, please post the buoy reports. Thanks

gs

 

[Mercutio]

Why is this such a big deal?

The people of New Orleans mostly live so far below sea level that they have problems with coffins floating out of the ground when it rains.

These people live below sea level, right on an ocean, and they had plenty of warning to get someplace that doesn't have 120mph winds and torrential downpours.

I'm having a tough time having any sympathy for them.

 

[Santilli]

Why is this such a big deal?

The people of New Orleans mostly live so far below sea level that they have problems with coffins floating out of the ground when it rains.

These people live below sea level, right on an ocean, and they had plenty of warning to get someplace that doesn't have 120mph winds and torrential downpours.

I'm having a tough time having any sympathy for them.

It's a big deal because of how it's going to affect gas prices, since 25% of our oil and gas comes out, and is refined, in the gulf.

Also, 40 foot buoy reports mean that is the average of the largest third of the waves. So, it's entirely possible to have waves double that height in the storm. A swell this size is very rare in the Pacific, but, lately, it seems to be happening more often in the Atlantic.

80 foot waves, that close to shore, are a big deal, at least to me.
And, with four named storms in the gulf, providing surf to texas this year, it was a very big deal to Texas Surfers...

GS :wink:

 

[Splash]

JUST HIT 38 FEET ON THE ALABAMA BUOY. SAY GOOD BYE TO LOUISIANA, AS WE KNOW IT...

The captain of the Queen Mary II (using a theodolite) measured waves just over 100 feet high (a tad more than 30 meters) during an Atlantic crossing when the ship met up with a hurricane.

 

[Santilli]

JUST HIT 38 FEET ON THE ALABAMA BUOY. SAY GOOD BYE TO LOUISIANA, AS WE KNOW IT...

The captain of the Queen Mary II (using a theodolite) measured waves just over 100 feet high (a tad more than 30 meters) during an Atlantic crossing when the ship met up with a hurricane.

The antarctic circle is famous for waves with durations measured in minutes, not seconds. One of the problems they have with supertankers is the stern and bow get caught on the peaks of a wave, and the middle part of the tanker, the part over the trough, collapses, due to it's own weight.

Getting 40 foot average surf, in the Gulf of Texas is very strange, and the path of this hurricane looks like the eye goes nearly right over NO.

Splash, you are the one most properly equipped for these kinds of conditions.
:wink: :mrgrn:

Greg

 

[Santilli]

I forgot to mention the good news is the huge surf seems to have been focused at Alabama, since that's where the 42020 buoy is, with the giant readings.
Can't get into NOAA to make sure, however.

gs

 

[Fushigi]

On the human front, I have to agree with Merc. I live in the midwest. Tornado zone; I accept that. Coastal Californians live in an earthquake/mudslide zone. The Buffalo, NY area gets pounded on with snow most winters. The desert southwest is, well, a desert. Flood plain along the Mississippi River, avalanches in Colorado, hurricanes in Florida and up the Atlantic coast. There are precious few places in the US that don't have some weather or geological events that have risk.

We live where we choose to live. Pick the risk you're willing to accept. Make reasonable preparation for the events that are common to your region. Don't expect sympathy when they occur.

On the economic front, to me there's little to worry about beyond the oil. I, for one, would prefer higher oil prices. Not that I welcome paying more, of course, but I think it's the only way that people will be incented enough to lobby congress to legislate better economy and to drive innovation in the areas of economical fuel consumption (home, auto, factory, etc.).

 

[Mercutio]

I gas up each of the cars I drive once a week. Last year that cost me $40. Now it costs $60. I shrug and forego the cheese on my Whopper.

... all the while laughing at the morons in Hummers and Expeditions, who are maybe just realizing that having Mr. Texas Oilman for a President isn't exactly helping them out.

 

[Splash]

...There are precious few places in the US that don't have some weather or geological events that have risk...

I read a report once a while back about the "safest" places to live in the USA, as far as natural disasters were concerned. There were only two significant zones -- and those weren't all that large -- where you could be considered at the highest level of safety from natural disasters. One was a chunk of New Mexico and the other a chunk of Nevada going over into Utah. Every other place had some sort of significant potential of natural disaster (or mix of natural disasters).

I love California...

California is not immune from hurricanes. There have been a couple hit the Los Angeles area during the past 100 years. The one that hit in the 1930s caused significant damage. There was a hurricane that got some folk nervous about 5 or 6 years ago that was aiming at Catalina. Fortunately, that one dissipated before it could get its forward speed up. That was the summer when warmer-than-usual waters crept up the Pacific coast and fisherpeople were catching lost of giant squid that would have normally been much farther south.

Arizona also gets hurricanes. One hit Yuma (on the Arizona / California state line) maybe 8 or 9 years ago. And, there was one that worked its way up the Gulf of Baja into Arizona about 20 years ago. Waters in the Gulf of Baja can be warmer than the Gulf Of Mexico.

Getting 40 foot average surf, in the Gulf of Texas is very strange... Splash, you are the one most properly equipped for these kinds of conditions...

Those are waves that are well offshore, not surf. Besides, those are peak wave heights, not average. I suspect the average wave height might've been more like 25 ~ 30 feet high -- which is still more than enough to completely ruin your pleasure boating day.

As for the weather around here, it's clear and quite dry with a touch of forest fire smoke from New Mexico / Old Mexico / Arizona / Colorado getting sucked through the area heading east.

 

[Pradeep]

Price of natural gas going up makes for a bitch of a winter heating bill.

As for people driving Hummers, I don't think they really care too much about the cost of gas. Or if they do, they are still aflluent enough to afford it.

 

[fb]

Sweden also has it's fair share of bad weather...

http://sterilecreed.com/weather/

 

[jtr1962]

I can't get through to NOAA. If you can, please post the buoy reports. Thanks

I haven't been able to get through, either, for the last few hours.

It looks like New Orleans was spared the worst of it but the damage looks pretty bad.

 

[Fushigi]

Accuweather Louisiana radar. WUnderground tracking map.

 

[jtr1962]

We live where we choose to live. Pick the risk you're willing to accept. Make reasonable preparation for the events that are common to your region. Don't expect sympathy when they occur.

I agree, and one thing that I really don't think we should do is continue to give disaster aid to places which don't make reasonable preparations. The purpose of disaster aid to to help a place cope with the once every few hundred years anomalous disaster, not the ones which happen regularly every few years. For example, I see pictures of houses in Florida which look like they're made of matchsticks. Every time a big hurricane hits, which is at least once every ten years down there, thousands of houses collapse. Building codes there should require something like 150 to 200 mph wind resistance. It's not like this is cost prohibitive either-reinforced concrete will do just fine.

As for the price of oil, I personally welcome any increases as it will get us to alternatives quicker even if it hurts us short term.

Oddly enough, New York City gets hit with these things about once a century or so.

 

[Buck]

For example, I see pictures of houses in Florida which look like they're made of matchsticks. Every time a big hurricane hits, which is at least once every ten years down there, thousands of houses collapse. Building codes there should require something like 150 to 200 mph wind resistance. It's not like this is cost prohibitive either-reinforced concrete will do just fine.

From what I've been told, Puerto Rico is very much on par with this idea. A friend of mine has family there, and his father-in-law builds homes. They are normally designed to withstand massive hurricanes and earthquakes, since they are both frequent occurrences on the island.

 

[LiamC]

...Building codes there should require something like 150 to 200 mph wind resistance. It's not like this is cost prohibitive either-reinforced concrete will do just fine.

So you make a law that "enshrines" these building codes. And some fly-by-night builder builds you a home that he says meets the code--but doesn't.

Hurricane Merc blows in and blows down your house. You aren't insured, and fly-by-nighter has skipped town/state/country. Should you qualify for disaster relief? It's too grey an area to make blanket statements IMO.

 

[Handruin]

Regarding houses in Puerto Rico, a friend of mine is originally from there, and recently bought a house in Florida (last year). During my visit to his house earlier this year, I made mention of how all the houses are built with brick/concrete, half way up the house (or essentially the entire first floor. He said in Puerto Rico, the houses are entirely in brick/concrete. He and his wife felt safer in Puerto Rico during a hurricane than they did in their new house in Florida.

Their house in FL survived all four hurricanes with minimal damage (lost a shingle or two). Even though the building code is in tune with Hurricanes, he felt it still wasn't as good as the building code in Puerto Rico.

 

[mubs]

They are normally designed to withstand massive hurricanes and earthquakes, since they are both frequent occurrences on the island.

That's awfully interesting. How do they do that? One would think that for earthquake safety, they'd use wood to build the houses. But for hurricanes, you need brick/cement/concrete. So as Handy says, are they hybrids, with the solid stuff only going up to about 8 feet, and the first ceiling onwards being wood?

 

[Handruin]

I may have mis-conveyed...the house in Florida is half & half, the house in Puerto Rico is all brick/concrete.

 

[Buck]

They are normally designed to withstand massive hurricanes and earthquakes, since they are both frequent occurrences on the island.

That's awfully interesting. How do they do that? One would think that for earthquake safety, they'd use wood to build the houses. But for hurricanes, you need brick/cement/concrete. So as Handy says, are they hybrids, with the solid stuff only going up to about 8 feet, and the first ceiling onwards being wood?

They're all reinforced concrete with split levels. Usually the lowest room in the house in the living room. in case there is some minor flooding. That way, only the least important room is damaged. Another friend of mine who lived in Puerto Rico about 25 years ago confirms this and says they build homes to last 100 years.

 

[jtr1962]

So you make a law that "enshrines" these building codes. And some fly-by-night builder builds you a home that he says meets the code--but doesn't.

Hurricane Merc blows in and blows down your house. You aren't insured, and fly-by-nighter has skipped town/state/country. Should you qualify for disaster relief? It's too grey an area to make blanket statements IMO.

Umm, that's what building inspectors are for. I firmly believe in the old adage trust but verify.

Hurricane Merc? :lol: That's only two letters away but I think the next one will be the real bitch, especially if they name it after my sister. :mrgrn: