Let me, for the sake of argument, and to stop this discussion turning into a rerun of several of the more rancorous threads over at the other place, explain what I mean by the term Liberal Democracy, (henceforth LD),. In the context of this, and any subsequent post’s I make in this thread, but not necessarily in any other context, an LD has
1. Universal Suffrage.
2. Independent Judiciary
3. Separation of church and state
4. Consensual Policing
5. The right to free speech and free association.
I’m neither ask nor expect anyone else to agree with this definition, only that when I use the term you recognise this is what I mean.
Ok then.
It is the lack of these conditions that lead to the disenfranchisement which in turn produces a fertile breeding ground for politically motivated violence. When that violence erupts it is all to easy to conflate the background causes with the nature of the act itself. I remember being woken up by the Brighton bomb. In the immediate aftermath a portion of the British public was all for sending 2para down the falls road. But it wasn’t until political negotiations started that any form of progress in Northern Ireland was possible. I cant help wondering weather the US isn’t embarking on a similar cycle right now. As The Giver stated if there is a lasting peace in Israel/Palestine which both sides can live with then “99% of the crap will stop”, unfortunately I cant see negotiations even beginning without a freeze on the settlements and a cessation of the suicide bombings and even then there wont be an agreement without the razing of the majority of the settlements in occupied territory, none of which seems to be in the offing.
Oh yes, before I get to the point, the purpose of a strong military is to use it. The US military is always in use. Most of the time the use it is put to is focusing the attention of whoever the US is talking to. It’s the one of the big sticks that mean the US generally doesn’t have to shout.
But I digress, more even than I intended to.
Suppose we get rid of SH, suppose he doesn’t manage to broaden the war by attacking Israel, suppose we find an Aladdin’s cave of WMD, suppose there are less civilian casualties than you get on a busy weekend in Johannesburg, suppose the whole thing, start to end, takes a fortnight. Suppose, in short, that it goes so well that the textbooks get rewritten.
What will we have achieved? Unless Iraq becomes an LD what’s to stop the same thing happening again in five or ten years? As Iraq does not have a homogenous population, indeed its population is not only heterogeneous, but as far as I have been able to gather riven by factional tension, and has no tradition of democracy to return to, how are we to suppose that Iraq will become an LD without extensive, long term external help? Who’s going to oversee that process, who’s going to implement it and who’s going to fund it? Because I cannot see the point of knocking the bugger down if someone just as bad pops up in his place.
A lot of people have drawn analogies with WW2, most of them, to be frank, annoy me, but I would say that WW2 may have ended in 45 but it wasn’t over until the Marshal plan had taken effect. Indeed there is a strong argument that this proposed war is merely the continuation of the first gulf war. That the failure to finish what we started, which precluded the rebuilding of Iraq, has led us directly into the current situation. What I want to know and what’s not being spoken about, at least, and I may just be poorly informed, as far as I’ve heard, is how we know were not going to repeat the mistake that was made at the end of the gulf war. Which itself was a repeat of the mistake made at the treaty of Versailles.