You might be interested in a short article my father wrote recently.
At the NPC on Friday, the Prime Minister made a reasoned and eloquent case for his policy of support for US policy on Iraq. He deserves a reasoned response and the public deserves an explanation of why these arguments have been rejected by the overwhelming majority of people and governments around the world.
Mr Howard is right to say that the world would be safer if Saddam Hussein were deprived of the weapons denied to him by the 1991cease-fire agreement and UN Security Council Resolutions. Also that it would be good for world order if Security Council resolution 1441 were implemented and that the Iraqi people would be much better off without this monstrous dictator. But there are three deep problems with the US policy that our PM supports: proportionality, selectivity and its consequences for world order.
In assessing responses to any problem the questions have to be weighed: do the ends justify the means and are the likely costs proportionate to the likely benefits?
In this case, the overwhelming judgement of the planet is a clear ‘No’. Iraq’s neighbours, those most threatened by his weapons and ambitions, (with the special-case exception of Kuwait) see a US invasion of Iraq as far more dangerous to them. Throughout the world, not only Muslims but much of the wider population fear that the Iraqi people will suffer disproportionately. Governments everywhere worry about the likely impact on the world economy of a temporary rise in oil prices and a blow-out of the US budget. In fact such knock-on economic effects of war in Iraq are likely to cause more deaths, word-wide, than did the September 11 terrorist attacks, through the trickle down effect onto the economically most vulnerable individuals. Beyond that, proceeding on the present US course has already gravely split and weakened NATO, the UN and the European Union – the three most constructive human endeavours of the past half century. The excitement of Muslim hostility towards the West is also a major issue, both in terms of its assistance to terrorism and its negative effects on political processes in Muslim countries. For these and other reasons, the world overwhelmingly feels that the proposed ‘cure’ is worse that the status quo. It is also relevant that the lesson of recent history is that dictatorships fall without outside intervention or massive bloodshed and destruction: this has happened dozens of times in the past 40 years. The very few surviving dictatorships are also likely to self-destruct if left to their own devices.
The second failure of Mr Howard’s argument is selectivity. However appalling, dangerous and recalcitrant, Saddam Hussein is not uniquely so. Iraq and North Korea are defying the norm against nuclear proliferation more seriously than is Iraq. Israel has gone much further: it has actually built some 200 nuclear weapons. All three of these countries and China are also brutal oppressors. Israel has also been in breach of Security Council Resolutions for far longer than Iraq and far more defiantly. The world certainly cannot afford 4 wars to redress all these ills. Two (or many) wrongs do not make a right but the ability to act in the name of principle in relation to Iraq is gravely compromised as long as the United Sates tolerates the continued occupation and oppression of Tibet by China, Palestine by Israel and Kashmir by India, Pakistan and China. The rights of these people to self-determination have to be demanded as assertively as Bagdad’s compliance with its obligations. The Prime Minister did re-iterate support for a Palestinian state but he also endorsed the Israeli ‘right recognised and secure borders’ which is Israel’s justification for its predatory policies and practices. Israel has no greater right to security than does any other state and the crimes of Hamas & Co. in no way excuse Israeli settlements in the occupied territories or its annexation of Jerusalem.
The consequences for world order are also at the heart of the rejection by most governments of the US action on Iraq. For most people on the planet, the question of what Iraq should be allowed to do has been eclipsed by that of how the US should be allowed to behave. In making clear that its prime aim was ‘regime change’ and ‘pre-emptive defence’, the Bush Administration espoused a policy which most of the world calls aggression. In proclaiming from the start that it would act alone regardless of the opinions and interests of all others, it challenged the established world order and the commitments it gave all other governments 57 years ago when it signed the UN Charter and has consistently re-affirmed. In threatening (as did the UK) to use nuclear weapons against Iraq, it has breached the solemn undertakings these two powers gave as part of the nuclear non-proliferation compact, never to use or threaten to use them against countries not so armed. It has further undermined the NPT regime by planning the development of new nuclear weapons. In deciding that protecting commercial secrecy was more important than allowing the world to have an effective regime against biological weapons, it has compromised its claim to be out to curb weapons of mass destruction. In many other ways it has demonstrated a rejection of the multilateral approach (which means taking account of the concerns of others). Its present effort to obtain a semblance of legitimacy by using bribery and coercion in the Security Council is obscene by most standards. And senior officials of this Administration proclaim that multilateral treaties, i.e. commitments given by the US to large numbers of other countries, are not binding. Australia’s interest in a world order such as the Bush Administration seems intent on destroying far surpasses our interest in Saddam’s weapons.
This takes us to the issue of the appropriate Australian response to this situation. Mr Howard rightly said a central consideration has to be our relations with the United States. This is because of our deep dependence and because of the Bush’s Administration’s credible threat to treat all who fail to support it as enemies. One effective response to a bully is that chosen by Mr Howard: join his cabal. A more honourable and democratically defensible strategy is that chosen by Canada and Mexico - two countries even more dependent than Australia on the US and more experienced at dealing with it. Their attitude has been to support the US declared objective of disarming Saddam while maintaining an eloquent silence as to the way the US is pursuing it. A brave patriot would stand up for Australia’s national interests and join the general opposition to the Bush offensive.