West Coast getting blasted by huge storm fronts. 3 in a row, inside a week.

[Santilli]

It's blowing hard and supposed to drop 10-15 inches in the mountains/hills this week.

Odd that after Sandy they aren't making much of a front that covers nearly the entire west coast, and is bringing winds in the 40-70 mile an hour range.

Combined with a high tide, we could have some real problems here.

Batten down the hatches, we are in for a blow.

radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mux&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

[Santilli]

The bad news is that as the week goes on, and the flooding starts to get worse, it's going to be accompanied by a very large swell hitting Friday, and getting bigger. Estimated 10-15 feet, or bigger Friday.

 

[ddrueding]

The reason this isn't getting as much attention as Sandy is that this isn't a big deal and Sandy was. Downtown SF isn't going to flood. The harbors in Long Beach and Oakland will continue to operate. It doesn't snow anyplace that really matters.

The west coast is just more conducive to life in general; even our "disasters" are minor in comparison.

 

[Santilli]

I was here in January, 1982. When it gets really bad is when the rain falls so fast the ground can't absorb anymore, and it continues to rain. The results then lead to mudslides, flooded rivers, and power outages. 3 days of no
power in Santa Cruz and Capitola.

You do have a point that rapid transit isn't hit in San Francisco, at least not much. Most of it has weathered many storms, and there is no situation which allows surge, swell, and tide to create what happened in New York.

Also since New York isn't often hit by such storms the weak spots in the system are allowed to grow. If a bad storm hits every 5 years, it knocks out any garbage PG & E has failed to replace, or knocks over the trees
that are potentially dangerous.

There was one storm in the 90's that knocked over something like 100 trees on the Olympic Club, trees that had withstood everything since the turn of the century. Anything likely to go over at that time did so.

What we do have a potential for is the Sac river jumping it's banks, and flooding an awful lot of Norcal.

 

[Mercutio]

It's all fun and games until the big quake that gives us Arizona Bay.

Also, if you want to bitch about insufficient media attention to weather conditions in the US, look no further than the fact that a four-inch snowfall in NYC gets fifty times the attention of a 36" blizzard with mass power outages in, say, Dayton or St. Louis.

 

[Santilli]

Not really my intention. Speaking of snow, I do wonder what amount of snow is going to be on Donner Pass at the end of the week.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsw3.html

Not as dense as Sandy, but it's NOT small, and it has more parts out of view

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsw2.html

 

[ddrueding]

The media attention tends to scale with the value of the property and people effected. This seems fairly reasonable. In '92 there was some significant flooding in the Salinas/Monterey area, and my current house would have been about 5' above the flood level. The part that would be newsworthy would be that hundreds of millions in crops were destroyed, raising produce prices nationwide for months.

 

[ddrueding]

Strangely enough, I'm parked next to a 300' tower on a 3500' mountain at the moment. Raining like crazy with winds around 40mph gusting much higher. Glad I'm not climbing the tower today.

 

[Santilli]

Might want to look at this:
http://www.sugarbowl.com/webcams

Snowing like crazy. White out.

 

[Santilli]

Sandbags anyone?
http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2012/11/28/stormwatch-bay-area-sandbag-locations/

 

[Mercutio]

The media attention tends to scale with the value of the property and people effected. This seems fairly reasonable.

I might be willing to buy that, except that a couple million man hours lost to snow removal and slow travel in New York City is in no way as newsworthy as an Ice Storm causing widespread power outages and with attending frigid temperatures impacting a multi-state region anyplace west of Philadelphia and east of Inland Empire. One is an inconvenience. The second is legitimately life threatening.

 

[LunarMist]

It's blowing hard and supposed to drop 10-15 inches in the mountains/hills this week.

Odd that after Sandy they aren't making much of a front that covers nearly the entire west coast, and is bringing winds in the 40-70 mile an hour range.

Combined with a high tide, we could have some real problems here.

Batten down the hatches, we are in for a blow.

radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mux&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Meh. Most likely only a few in the mountains or on the beach will get much of anything. I doubt there will be more than 25 corpses for the morgues.

 

[Santilli]

Show Extended Details Hide Extended Details

Hydrologic Outlook
Valid: Nov 28 at 2:39PM PST
...FIRST FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH...BUT EXPECT MORE SERIOUS HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS COMING SOON... AS OF 2:30 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR AREA, LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE 11-COUNTY GREATER BAY AREA. MOST RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE NORTH BAY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREAS--IN SOME LOCATIONS 2 TO 3 INCHES FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING, WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVED ABOUT ONE THIRD INCH. THE LIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED RAIN AND NOW CLEARING SKIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MONTEREY BAY AREA, IS DECEPTIVE AND NOT A SIGNAL TO LOWER YOUR GUARD. ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, A MORE OMINOUS SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTH---SLOWLY. AS PRIOR FORECASTS INDICATE, VALLEY BOTTOMS MAY ONLY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES, BUT HIGHER TERRAIN MAY RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES. A THIRD SYSTEM FOLLOWS, SLATED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BE EVEN WETTER --RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FOOT OR MORE IN COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS, COMBINED WITH ALREADY WELL SATURATED SOILS AND PRIMED CREEKS STILL RECEDING FROM THIS MORNING`S SYSTEM, COULD MEAN THAT FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IS A POSSIBILITY FROM FRIDAY MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN STEM FORECAST POINTS OF INTEREST, SUCH AS THE NAPA, RUSSIAN, AND SAN LORENZO RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGES. HOWEVER, THE RUSSIAN IS PREDICTED TO RISE TO A FEW FEET SHY OF MONITOR STAGE IN THE GUERNEVILLE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SEASONED RIVER RATS AND LONG-TIME LOCAL RESIDENTS KNOW HOW FLASHY EVEN THESE LARGER SYSTEMS CAN BEHAVE, SO FOLLOW THEIR SAGE LEAD AND ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION, EVEN AROUND THESE TYPICALLY MORE RESILIENT BIG BOYS. EXPECT ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TOMORROW IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STORM THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY FOR FLASHY CREEKS IN THE NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY FOLLOW DIRECTLY ON THE HEELS OF WATCHES AS THE STORMS RAMP UP OVER THE WEEKEND.

 

[Santilli]

This is a recipe for disaster, literally. The combination of storms, in creeks and rivers still full of sand, due to lack of velocity over the spring and summer results in very high water levels in creeks and rivers.
Tides aren't really helping, but, they are only 5-6 feet at high tide. Still, not good. The 10-15 or 20 foot swell arriving Saturday is NOT going to be helpful.

 

[ddrueding]

Strangely enough, I'm parked next to a 300' tower on a 3500' mountain at the moment. Raining like crazy with winds around 40mph gusting much higher. Glad I'm not climbing the tower today.

https://pictures.lytro.com/lyt-72782890026136/pictures/460995

 

[jtr1962]

You have to climb that? I'm getting dizzy just looking up at it. :drunk:

 

[ddrueding]

Not today. Good thing, as it was way too windy and cold. That was a moment when the clouds opened up; most of the time you couldn't see 30' up the tower from the ground.

 

[Stereodude]

The media attention tends to scale with the value of the property and people effected.

Nonsense. They focus on things that interest them. Since the bulk of the media is centered in the NYC they get obsessed about things that impact them.

 

[Santilli]

They are calling for 10 inches of rain in 6 days in Eureka. It's currently been getting hammered all morning.

 

[jtr1962]

I might be willing to buy that, except that a couple million man hours lost to snow removal and slow travel in New York City is in no way as newsworthy as an Ice Storm causing widespread power outages and with attending frigid temperatures impacting a multi-state region anyplace west of Philadelphia and east of Inland Empire. One is an inconvenience. The second is legitimately life threatening.

I'll admit that it's kind of embarrassing how a snow storm in NYC merits national coverage while events in other places which cause more harm are scarcely mentioned. I think SD hit the nail on the head-the media is largely centered in NYC, and therefore act like it's the center of the universe. And yes, NYC residents are largely wimps when it comes to weather. When I mention going for a bike ride when it's 35°F (with no snow or rain) some people act like I just came back from Antarctica. When it gets into the teens with snow on the ground, you would think it was another Ice Age listening to some people.

 

[Santilli]

Surf isn't going to help:

Through the weekend: There isn't much change in the forecast today from what was discussed earlier this week. We're currently seeing a large mix of S-SW (170-250) windswell that should be followed by larger 13 to 14 second WSW-WNW (250-290) through the day today, and then another even larger 15-second pulse on Friday and Saturday. The mix of swell will build into the range of several feet overhead to double overhead at stand out breaks today, with the possibility for bigger deepwater breaks to generate 12 to 17 foot waves this afternoon. The swell is due to peak Friday and Saturday with wave heights along the exposed coast seeing 12 to 15 foot faces and standout breaks in the 15 to 20 foot range. Wave heights although remaining large will start to back off to more reasonable heights late Sunday. The storminess is going to be a big problem though, with strong winds out of the S-W with speeds ranging from 10 to 20 mph and gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range. The remaining fronts are due for early Friday and late Saturday. We should continue to see heavy rain at times and showers between now and Sunday, possibly producing up to 5 inches of rain over the next few days. Factors coming into play: Heavy rains, flooding, strong southerly winds, stormy conditions, large powerful surf, high bacteria levels.

With that much rain, that fast, we are going to have flooding and swollen rivers. I'm heading to Petaluma today, and we'll see how the drive is. 37 might be a problem.

 

[Santilli]

5-9 inches in rain in the areas I'm going to, and 75 mile an hour winds a mile from our house.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

 

[Santilli]

"* UNTIL 1130 AM PST.

* AT 824 AM PST AUTOMATED RAINGAGE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATED RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH PER HOUR MOVING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA." That's me in the center of the advisory area...

 

[ddrueding]

And I'm getting flash flood warnings on my phone, but it isn't serious around here.

 

[Newtun]

And I'm getting flash flood warnings on my phone, but it isn't serious around here.

It can get serious, sometimes quickly. Take care, you "lefties".

 

[ddrueding]

The main intersection near my house flooded so deep a Prius was up to the door handles when it failed. No explosion, though. The on-ramp I use to get to work is under construction, and the shoring looks to have failed. Not sure if the road will still be open when I head back.

The local boy scout camp is in a canyon and got 4" in 1 hour this morning. Not much going to be left there.

Our weatherman is actually worried about Sunday, saying that it will be the heaviest rain in the area in memory.

 

[jtr1962]

This is starting to sound like an epic storm along the lines of Sandy. I might suggest to make whatever preparations you can should the power go out. I hope everyone gets through this OK.

 

[LunarMist]

Wow, I hope insurance covers your destroyed car.

 

[mubs]

Take care you guys in NorCal.

 

[ddrueding]

I just moved the NAS enclosures to the top of my server rack. I have enough UPS capacity to handle about 6 hours if I'm not gaming. I do work for a construction company, so some small disasters could help the business I suppose.

 

[Santilli]

Show Extended Details Hide Extended Details

Special Weather Statement
Valid: Dec 01 at 5:31PM PST
..ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS MAY RESULT IN SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS... TWO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS SINCE MIDWEEK HAVE PRODUCED AS MUCH AS TEN INCHES OF RAIN IN THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ONE FINAL WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES FORECAST IN THE HILLS. GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS MAY TRIGGER SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) HAS INSTALLED RESEARCH INSTRUMENTATION AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH KNOWN PAST LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. THE USGS INSTRUMENTATION INDICATE THAT SHALLOW SOILS ARE APPROACHING SATURATION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ARE COMPARABLE TO AMOUNTS FROM PAST STORMS THAT CAUSED MODERATE TO WIDESPREAD LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...SHALLOW LANDSLIDES MIGHT OCCUR IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS CAN OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS. INFORMATION ON WHAT TO DO IN THE CASE OF A LANDSLIDE CAN BE FOUND AT: (ALL LOWER CASE) HTTP://LANDSLIDES.USGS.GOV/LEARNING/PREPARE/DURING.PHP

The wind is about 20-30 miles an hour. The sand traps on the golf course are full. Not good. We do drain pretty well...

 

[LunarMist]

Show Extended Details Hide Extended Details

Special Weather Statement
Valid: Dec 01 at 5:31PM PST
..ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS MAY RESULT IN SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS... TWO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS SINCE MIDWEEK HAVE PRODUCED AS MUCH AS TEN INCHES OF RAIN IN THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ONE FINAL WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES FORECAST IN THE HILLS. GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS MAY TRIGGER SHALLOW LANDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) HAS INSTALLED RESEARCH INSTRUMENTATION AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH KNOWN PAST LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. THE USGS INSTRUMENTATION INDICATE THAT SHALLOW SOILS ARE APPROACHING SATURATION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ARE COMPARABLE TO AMOUNTS FROM PAST STORMS THAT CAUSED MODERATE TO WIDESPREAD LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...SHALLOW LANDSLIDES MIGHT OCCUR IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS CAN OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS. INFORMATION ON WHAT TO DO IN THE CASE OF A LANDSLIDE CAN BE FOUND AT: (ALL LOWER CASE) HTTP://LANDSLIDES.USGS.GOV/LEARNING/PREPARE/DURING.PHP

The wind is about 20-30 miles an hour. The sand traps on the golf course are full. Not good. We do drain pretty well...

The link is broken. Is golfing really an issue in December? I think we could use some rain, albeit not all at the same time.

 

[Santilli]

I think they update it, and then change the link. I was just pointing out that it takes a LOT of rain to fill the traps, and keep them filled for any length of time.
Looks like the only serious damage was a couple sink holes under roads.

Be warned: Grammer police are going to go nuts with this article. Maybe the storm caused a power outage and no computers?

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...rm-causes-2-giant-sinkholes-swallowing-roads/

 

[LunarMist]

Less than 253 dead bodies.

 

[Santilli]

Cold wave is on.
Winds blowing off the Sierras, huge swell, good Mavericks day, except for the crowd.

33 degrees. Tomorrow in the 20's. All week around freezing.

 

[mubs]

Start Folding!

 

[CougTek]

Not a bad idea. Same time last year, he posted very decent numbers for the team.

 

[Santilli]

29.4 F this morning.

DD: Where are you? Russia?

Problem is the surf is perfect when it's this cold. Wind is blowing 10-20 offshore, big swells. So 30 F with 10 mile an hour winds is 21 F wind chill.

And I used to wonder why my 4-3mm wetsuit never seemed like enough

 

[ddrueding]

Nah, I'm around. 34F at the moment. This heat pump and super insulation kicks ass. 72F at midnight and, without the heat turning on at all through the night, 67F in the morning.

 

[Santilli]

27 degrees, light snow, in Walnut Creek? WTF?
GLOBAL WARMING?????