Your CPU in 5 years?

Adcadet

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With the recent discussion on Intel vs. AMD chips, and the speculation about the immediate future, I thought I would open a discussion about what's going to happen in the next 5 years. Who will dominate? What will we use for memory? HDs? SCSI/ATA/serial ATA? USB3? Firewire 3? Does anybody have a clue who will make the CPU they will be using in 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
 

CougTek

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Adcadet said:
Who will dominate?
On the CPU front, Intel for sure. No matter how much better AMD's CPU will be (if they are, but I think they'll be), AMD still won't have the manufacturing power to rival with Intel. I don't think AMD can grab much more than 35% of the whole market, and even that's optimistic.

With the current price war Intel is running against AMD, I'm not even sure AMD will still be there (on their own brand name I mean) in 5 years. Maybe it will be Another Microsoft Division?
 

Onomatopoeic

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Adcadet said:
With the recent discussion on Intel vs. AMD chips, and the speculation about the immediate future, I thought I would open a discussion about what's going to happen in the next 5 years. Who will dominate?

I believe:

Intel will sooner or later attempt a big shift from Pentium X86 technology to Itanium technology by introducing an "Itanium Lite" microprocessor. This will happen about 1.5 to 2.5 years after the Pentium V is released.

AMD will drop the 32-bit X86 Athlon core for the general purpose X86 market and go with various X86-64 processors. This will happen fairly fast -- maybe 1.5 ~ 2 years from now.


What will we use for memory? HDs? SCSI/ATA/serial ATA? USB3? Firewire 3?

I thought we were talking "Your CPU in 5 years?" Oh well.

For main system memory, in 5 years we may very well still be stuck with both Rambus and probably yet another variant of DDR technology -- STILL! However, I would suspect that memory channels will be wide and/or we will have multiple channels (expensive solution). About 6 or 7 years from now (hopefully sooner), M-RAM will have finally become a commercial reality. M-RAM is "Magnetic RAM" which is an IBM RAM technology. M-RAM is static memory, not dynamic. It will also allegedly be quite fast.

SCSI will go serial in 2 or 3 years just like ATA will fairly soon. Serial SCSI will have many protocol enhancements along with large effective bandwidth increases after introduction. Serial SCSI will dovetail very nicely into the iSCSI environment.

As for ATA it will completely Serial ATA in less than 5 years. Parallel ATA has already stopped progressing, meaning the end has come -- NOW. Serial ATA will definitely live on.

USB could very well not get any faster than it already is with the USB2 specification. However, what *could* happen a bit later with USB is that Intel could redefine USB's role into "the external data channel for the low-end," or something a bit like a poor man's InfiniBand.



Does anybody have a clue who will make the CPU they will be using in 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?

Nobody, unless they're an Intel or AMD bigot. There could be a few more competitors as well.


 

Tea

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If there was ever a time when AMD were set to hit the wall, it was quite some time ago. Their worst period was back when Intel and Cyrix were both making 200MHz class chips and they were only selling glorified 133MHz 486 things. (The AM5x86-133.) Their incredibly ambitious K5 project was dead in the water - they were making K5s by then, though not selling many, as they offered half the performance of the 6x86 or Pentium but actually cost more to make than either. Then they bet the company on the NexGen buy-out - still more money going out with nothing coming in. If they hadn't had a strong flash RAM division at the time they would have been history. As it was, they only just squeaked through.

And as for price competition, Intel don't even understand the word. You think any company would be worried about price competition from Intel when they have already survived ten years of competing with Cyrix? Getting into a price war with Intel after that hard schooling is like having to survive an all-in wrestling match with one of Mercutio's kittens after spending the last ten years wrestling with an alligator. Sure, Cyrix were small, but they were the champions of the price wars.

Yup: Intel have enough cash in the bank to bankrupt AMD if they want to. But it is getting to be a bigger and harder task with every year that passes. If Intel were goingto go all-out to crush AMD they would have done it years ago, back when they had more income and AMD had nothing much behind them.

It's far too late for that now. AMD have the manufacturing facilities, the know-how, the designs, the distribution channel, and above all the mind share. Plus they are actually making a profit on their CPUs more often than not - something that was rarely true in the past.
 

Onomatopoeic

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CougTek said:
...AMD still won't have the manufacturing power to rival with Intel...

If anything, AMD and especially Intel will probably shutdown processor manufacturing lines as time goes on. Why? Larger wafer sizes, smaller processor die sizes. Eventually, one Intel processor factory 5 or 6 ot 7 years from now will equal about 3 or 4 existing Intel processor factories in production numbers.


...Maybe it will be Another Microsoft Division?

It's highly unlikely that Microsoft will ever buy a microprocessor manufacturer. If the did, I would put MIPS on the list well above AMD or Intel.


 

Onomatopoeic

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Tea said:
...AMD have the manufacturing facilities, the know-how, the designs, the distribution channel, and above all the mind share. Plus they are actually making a profit on their CPUs more often than not - something that was rarely true in the past.

Long LONG before AMD got into the processor business, I was a big user of AMD parts and even an *AMD fan* -- I'm talking, er, 1979 / 80 / 81 here dude! Anyway, AMD made some of the highest quality CMOS logic around. Motorola simply had the worst trash CMOS there was and it was the least expensive. Intel, well they were around then, too, with their 8085/86 micros and not much else other than a lot of hype. Intel was battling it out with TI, Signetics, Motorola, and Zilog.

A few years later (1981 /82) Intel ended up picking AMD to be their second source for x86, but only after IBM -- and to a small extent, Microsoft -- forced them into this situation. This would be Chapter One in the l-o-n-g tale of the "Battle Between Intel And AMD." A couple of chapters later in this saga, we find Intel suing AMD on multiple fronts and losing just about all of them -- certainly ALL of the significant ones!



 

Tea

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A question for you, Gary. Did Intel ever win any of their suits against the other CPU manufacturers? I know that, bar the odd minor quibble, Intel lost every suit they brought against AMD, and also against Cyrix. But what about the others, the bit players in the CPU game: Chips and Technologies, UMC, Harris, no doubt others? Do you happen to know?
 

CougTek

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Tea,

AMD is more vulnerable than it was in the 90s' because the flash memory market has dropped quite a lot recently. They don't have that secur second monetary backup they had before. Besides, Cyrix isn't nearly comparable to Intel as a rival, because just like AMD, they didn't have the manufacturing power to be really dangerous. At least never like Intel is.
 

Onomatopoeic

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Tea said:
A question for you, Gary. Did Intel ever win any of their suits against the other CPU manufacturers? I know that, bar the odd minor quibble, Intel lost every suit they brought against AMD, and also against Cyrix. But what about the others, the bit players in the CPU game: Chips and Technologies, UMC, Harris, no doubt others? Do you happen to know?

I don't recall any Intel litigation as far as *microprocessors* go with C&T or UMC, but Harris eventually gave up the ghost with their super-duper overclockin' 25MHz 286 when Intel was well into the 386 era. By the way, the Harris 25MHz 286 could run DOS programs about as fast as a 33MHz 386!

Let's not forget NEC and their V-series processors. NEC was eventually forced into only selling their V-series x86 processors in the Japanese market.

One thing I didn't mention earlier was that IBM ALSO got a license to manufacture x86 processors as well, but never did for a long time. AMD did ...heh heh heh. Intel decided to stop AMD fro manufacturing any "new generation" x86 processors when the 286 came up and found that they legally could not. They were forced into sending AMD microcode. This is when it all began between Intel and AMD. Things spiraled out of control when AMD began producing 386s. The court cases dragged well into the 486 era, where AMD finally had to come up with their own design. A few generations of their VLIW processor design and we now have Athlon.




 

Onomatopoeic

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CougTek said:
...Besides, Cyrix isn't nearly comparable to Intel as a rival, because just like AMD, they didn't have the manufacturing power to be really dangerous...

Yes, Cyrix did have the manufacturing power. It was IBM.



 

CougTek

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But was the commitment of IBM towards Cyrix anywhere near what Intel does with their processors? Doubtful. IIRC, most of the peak Cyrix era was during IBM's bad years following their anti-trust trial. I don't recall very well (mostly because I've never really been interested by Cyrix), but Cyrix had a contract with IBM to manufacture the CPUs. Cyrix wasn't entirely part of IBM. I could be wrong, but if IBM would have been seriously behind Cyrix, the R&D on their CPUs would have been much more important.
 

Onomatopoeic

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CougTek said:
But was the commitment of IBM towards Cyrix anywhere near what Intel does with their processors? Doubtful. IIRC, most of the peak Cyrix era was during IBM's bad years following their anti-trust trial. I don't recall very well (mostly because I've never really been interested by Cyrix), but Cyrix had a contract with IBM to manufacture the CPUs. Cyrix wasn't entirely part of IBM. I could be wrong, but if IBM would have been seriously behind Cyrix, the R&D on their CPUs would have been much more important.

er... That's not the way it was between IBM and Cyrix. Cyrix was not owned by IBM or anyone else. There was not a commitment as such between the two parties, just a business deal that blossomed. Cyrix only had a large office building (I've seen it several times years ago -- it's just up the road from here) and nothing else as far as property goes. Cyrix had no manufacturing capabilities and definitely had no plans to ever have factories. Their business plan from the beginning was to contract all processor manufacturing.

IBM was one of two (maybe 3) foundries that Cyrix contracted to fabricate their new 5X86 processors -- National Semi was also used. Demand was pretty high for Cyrix 5X86 processors in the beginning and it got even higher in short order, that's when IBM became a manufacturer. The deal with IBM quickly became one where they were able to secure a license from Cyrix to make their own 5X86 and 6X86 processors any way they felt for internal use and sell them as well. If I recall correctly, the street name for the later 6X86 IBM (Cyrix) processor line was "Blue Flame 6X86."

With the exception of having a highly competitive price for a processor (at that time), the 5X86 was not any great performer compared to an Intel 486DX4. The 6X86 was better at keeping up with Pentium Classic and later Pentium MMX processors, but Cyrix engineers simply weren't able to keep up with the transition to a Pentium Pro / Pentium II class processor that was also price competitive. AMD also did their bit in shoving Cyrix down the stairway by introducing inexpensive K-series X86 microprocessors.


 

Tea

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You really should brush up on your CPU history, Coug. Try Tannin's site. :wink: He's a bit up himself, of course, but he knows his stuff in that department.

R&D was the whole idea behind the Cyrix/IBM relationship. At that time, IBM had their own CPU design team. Well, two of them, actually: the X86 design team and also the PowerPC guys. Plus the guys who did their big iron, no doubt, unless that was handled by the PowerPC team - I don't follow that end of the market. IBM had a series of in-house designed X86 CPUs, which were made using a combination of Intel-licenced technologies and their own in-house enhancements. The best known and most successful of them were the 486SLC and the 486BL, or Blue Lightning.

c-486bl.jpg


The Blue Lightning was essentially an Intel 386DX plus IBM's own developments. The one in the picture is a 75MHz one and it was more than capable of holding its own against the Intel 486 parts.

Now, about the R&D. Cyrix were fabless. They had no manufacturing facilities at all. They used to rent fab facilities from people like Texas Instruments (Jerry was an ex-TI guy in the first place, remember) or SGS-Thompson (who now have some other name which I forget, but are a huge multinational firm of French origin who make everything from microchips to military radars and missile parts).

IBM had plenty of production capacity but a shortage of design engineers, Cyrix had a world-best team of designers but no fab plant of their own. There were complications and fine print, but essentialy the deal was simple. Cyrix would do all the design work (allowing IBM to redeploy their X86 guys over to the PowerPC) and IBM would take care of the manufacturing. Then they would each take 50% of the finished chips.

It worked very well for some years. They sold a hell of a lot of chips. But eventually management changes at Cyrix saw them try to become more sales-focussed and less product-focussed and their design team - up until that time unquestionably the best X86 design team in the world - lost the plot. Or were hamstrung. Or couldn't get enough development and testing wafer space out of IBM. Or lost all their best talent - the stories seem to vary. The net result, though, was simplicity itself: they had no new product worth talking about, and in the CPU game, that is a death warrant.

In short, IBM never had anything to do with the R&D of the Cyrix/IBM chips inb the first place. So long as Cyrix remained a hard driven, product-focused design house, they could (and did) match it with all comers. From the moment they went all touchy-feely and decided that cuddling up to the buying department at Compaq was more important than designing great CPUs, their death warrant was made out, and by failing to concentrate on their design strength - fast CPUs for the desktop - and pissing about with fifty different schemes for set top box chips instead, it was soon signed.

But let us not forget: in their golden era, they were a truly formidable competitor. AMD had terrible trouble trying to compete with both Intel and Cyrix at the same time - they were really stuck in the middle: not as respectable as Intel and not as cheap and fast as Cyrix. Thanks largely to their flash RAM division, they were able to stick it out for long enough for their newly-accquired NexGen designers to come up with a competitive chip - the K6 - and with this great design they managed to survive and compete for just long enough to finally get rid of their very troublesome 0.35 micron process and move to their 0.25 micron one, which was an immediate winner. From that point on, AMD were looking good.

Cyrix were the company, far more than any other, that made computing affordable. And yes, I include AMD in that statement.

PS: I remembered SGS-Thompson's new name: ST Microelectronics. At least that's the name of one of their divisions. They are a bit like IBM or NEC or Samsung - make all kinds of stuff.
 

Onomatopoeic

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Ahhhh... Blue Lightning (not Blue Flame -- that's something else that IBM has which I now forget what is).

Cyrix did have a follow up to the 6X86, but it got delayed time and time again for some reason, then late in the game -- cancelled -- only to be revived again for a bit just before the sale to Via. Via fiddle with this processor and fiddle some more with it and then it finally became one of their existing products "Noah" or "Jalapeño" something like that. I give up.

Yes, SGS-Thomson (no "P" in their name) is now called ST-Microelectronics. The history of how they got to where they are is simply one that will give you an extreme case of motion sickness, if not whiplash or schizophrenia. Over a 20+ year period, through many finaglings, buyouts, breakups, mergers, lawsuits, name changes, and maybe some garage sales along this confusing path, about 20 or more companies have eventually become the conglomerate now called ST-Micro. One of those many companies involved was one that I just happened to have mentioned earlier -- Signetics.

As for me: Stuck here at work again tonight.


 

Tea

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Oh, I didn't see your post, Onamatopeiochowonearthdoispellthis? The one prior to my long one about Cyrix/IBM business relationships, I mean. Two quibbles with it. First, IBM started manufacturing for Cyrix a little earlier than that, with the 486 chips. DX/66 and DX/100, I think, though it may have been a little earlier still. Chiplist would have the details. Certainly, we had any number of Cyrix designed, IBM badged 486DX/2 and DX/4 parts go through this place. I still have some of them in my collection. Also a Texas Instruments badged DX/2-80 - a very rare item indeed.

c-486dx80.jpg


But where was I. Oh yes: the Cyrix 5x86. A really interesting and different design. Though it used a 486 socket, it was internally more similar to a Pentium or a 6x86. A sort of cousin to the 8088 and 386SX, if you like, bearing a similar relationship to the 64-bit addressing 6x86 as the 16-bit external 386SX did to the 32-bit addressing 386DX.

At 100MHz, integer performance was similar to a Pentium at 75MHz, or a 486 at 133MHz. Floating point performance was supposed to be much better than any 486, in the same class as a 6x86 at similar clockspeed. Now before you laugh, remember that the 6x86 was rewnowned for weak FPU performance in comparison to the Pentium - but the Pentium FPU was so much faster than a 486 NPU that there was plenty of room for the 5x86 (and the 6x86) to be much better than the latter while still not being in the same ball park as the former.
 

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Thanks for dredging up those memories of the 486 era. Yes, I've seen TI 486 processors in the past, but I forgot that Cyrix was the designer of that TI processor and that Cyrix started off with 486 processors.

Maybe I simply WANTED to forget all of this, which is the most likely reason I forgot.



 

Tea

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Ahh yes, how could I have forgotten the NEC X86 chips? I had a 12MHz XT once upon a time, a V-20 chip, and I still have a more modest V20 in my collection somewhere. As I recall, NEC eventually won that suit (just as everyone that Intel sued seemed to win eventually - makes Intel look like the Rambus of the '80s doesn't it) and there was a sudden flood of V20 and V30 chips onto the market here in consequence. But the XT/AT market was almost finished by then. Which was no doubt sufficient for Intel's purposes anyway.

As for UMC, I think they may have been the exception that proved the rule. I can't imagine that they would have ever been able to sell their Hong Kong copy of the Intel 486SX in the US or any country that had reciprical rights with the US. They sold them in SE Asia for a little while. I had one once, a private import, and I stupidly let it go before I realised how rare they were. Anyway, I gather the "clean room" design wasn't very ... er ... clean. :wink: The C&T 386 would have been the real McCoy though. C&T, along with Phoenix, pioneered clean room development when they made the first 100% compatible PC BIOS chips, back in the early '80s. Or so I believe. And - irony of ironies - guess who owns C&T now?

And I am absolutely delighted to hear you confirm that the Harris 286-25 really was faster than an equivalent clock 386SX - because I used to own one of those too, and always thought it was a ripsnorter. So it wasn't just my imagination. Neat!
 

timwhit

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Cliptin said:
My CPU is a neural net processor ... a learning computer.

Since no one acknowledged this post I will.

That is a great line. If anyone doesn't understand this line, it came from Terminator 2. Just try to imagine Arnold Schwarzenegger saying it.
 

Onomatopoeic

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Another thing that I was going to add to "The Future..." speculation going on here, was that Advanced Instant On capabilities might come along once the price of Flash RAM has fallen to levels where 512 MB will cost about US$50 or so.

Of course, PC BIOSes would support the Flash RAM for Advanced Instant On booting through a standardised hardware interface (special socket, hardware address, etc). The version of MS Windows out then (maybe 2005/6) would have the capability to write whatever code and data into the Flash RAM that is needed.

The Advanced Instant On PCs would be mid-range or better systems. Dirt cheap systems would still have to use the hard drive (tremble!) to boot from as we do today with the typical PC systems.

There has been an Instant On specification for sometime now, but I believe it pretty much only covers hibernation activities.

 

cas

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Onomatopoeic said:
There has been an Instant On specification for sometime now, but I believe it pretty much only covers hibernation activities.
The only change that would be required to Windows, is the ability to hibernate to a non-system disk.

Otherwise the functionality is there now, even if the economics are not.

Then again, between suspend to ram, and traditional hibernate, I would be hard pressed to pay extra for this functionality.
 

The Grammar Police

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"Instant On" - a concept developed by Microsoft Corporation in the late 20th Century after it became obvious that it would be a more realistic goal than developing an OS that could run reliably for more than 24 hours without a restart in the first place.
 

cas

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“The Grammar Police” – A sock puppet ostensibly created for the purpose of identifying grammatical mistakes, which lacks understanding of the Advanced Configuration and Power Interface.

Operating System state is maintained across an “Instant On” cycle. If indeed memory leaks or other problems are causing instability over time, a stand by cycle will not help you. Only a proper reboot will. Bootstrapping is not a concept developed by the Microsoft Corporation.
 

The Grammar Police

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Now there you raise a gramattical dilemma, Bartender. Not the animacy of my humble self - for that is obvious and in this particular you are entirely correct - but in the appropriate pronoun for a single individual of indeterminate gender. The traditional view is that one should use the masculine: "that he is". Others object that this is sexist use of language and that one should use the clumsy and unlovely "he or she is". And still others prefer to maintain the beauty of the language by using "he is" and "she is" in alternate passages. Finally, there is the school of thought that maintains that each of these has drawbacks and that one should sacrifice a little traditional grammatical correctness on the twin alters of clear communication and inclusive (i.e., non-sexist) language - hence the form you chose: "they are".

Given that there is no clearly prefferred form, it is our policy that one may use whichever of the four alternatives one prefers, and we will exercise our discretion and not prosecute.

Unless, of course, that was just a mistake, in which case no punishment is too severe.
 

Bartender

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No need to get excited, we're not going to throw anyone of the bar yet. The Grammar Police just happen to be long-winded, and could learn a bit about applying words such as laconic, brevity, succinct, and concise.
 

Adcadet

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Nice to know I can still count on you guys to take an interesting topic and run with it in a number of really strange directions.

Ahhh, I feel much better now. Thanks guys. Back to my rats.
 
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