You're probably right, although I tend to think smaller 4K displays might happen a bit sooner if they want to get people to buy new monitors. Right now, unless of course it breaks, most people who are using any monitor made within, say, the last 8 or 10 years have no compelling reason to replace it. I'm not talking about gamers who might want to get higher refresh rates, or people who do a lot of image editing and might need better contrast ratios. Rather, I'm talking about your average user who checks emails, looks at videos on you-tubes, etc. That's the mass market for monitors. And any monitor made probably since 2003 still works fine. Backlights may dim with age, but they're usually still bright enough 8 or 10 years later. My 1600x1200 monitor (made c. 2004), which I got second hand from the next door neighbors, has close to 20,000 hours on it according to the info display on the menu. The backlight is still plenty bright. I would imagine lots of people are using monitors they're happy with. Once enough people see large screen 4K TVs in stores, they're probably going to say the picture looks better than my monitor. That will drive the next cycle of upgrades. The only show stopper might be people with machines too old to support higher resolutions. DVI and VGA won't support anything past 2560 x 1600. The DisplayPort on my new M/B supports up to 4096 x 2160. I don't think there's any standard yet for 8K displays. Then again, 8K is overkill for anything except huge displays.
