Apple record 3Q, stock tanks...buy.

[udaman]

Stock tanked due to 'guidance' which was lower than the prognosticators would have liked for Q4...whatever. Previous Q results, the results were good and with similar lowered expectations guidance from Apple, stock tanked to <$120/share earlier this year, that was the time if you had the $$$ to invest.

Still if it opens down tomorrow would be a good buy at current amounts, for sure to go higher by years end.
Apple's stock down 10% after-hours


http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/07/21/apples.stock.down/

the company also guided lower than analyst expectations for next quarter. "Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008, we expect revenue of about $7.8 billion and earnings per diluted share of about $1.00," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO. Analysts had projected profits of $1.24 per share on $8.32 billion in sales.

Apple Announces $1.07 Billion in Profit for Q3 2008

http://www.macrumors.com/2008/07/21/apple-announces-1-07-billion-in-profit-for-q3-2008/

Apple announced their 3rd Quarter 2008 Financial Results today. Apple posted revenue of $7.46 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion (or $1.19 per diluted share). This compares favorably to revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million (or $.92 per diluted share) in the year-ago quarter. Apple shipped 2,496,000 Macintosh computers and 11,011,000 iPods this quarter. "We're proud to report the best June quarter for both revenue and earnings in Apple's history," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "We set a new record for Mac sales, we think we have a real winner with our new iPhone 3G, and we're busy finishing several more wonderful new products to launch in the coming months."
Looking to the fourth fiscal quarter 2008, Apple expects to earn a revenue of $7.8 billion and earnings per diluted share of about $1.00.

The Mac sales numbers represent 41% unit growth over last year's quarter and the iPod sales represent 12% unit growth over last year's numbers. As we previously reported, Apple's results do not include iPhone sales, which were deferred until the 4th quarter. Apple's financial results webcast will begin at 5pm ET / 2pm PT. MacRumors will provide running highlights of the webcast.

Steve Jobs hints at "several more wonderful new products to launch in the coming months" in Apple's press release.

Conference Call Highlights

- Very pleased to report highest June quarter earnings and revenue.
- 38% growth in revenue over previous year-ago quarter
- Highest quarterly Mac shipments ever
- Continues to see healthy growth in all regions, sales in retail stores very strong
- Mac: 2.5 million Macs shipped. Most in any quarter in Apple's history.
- Apple's share of total personal computers up to 19.5% in June
- Best Mac quarter ever in U.S. education
- Sold 11 million iPods. Up 12% from year ago.
- Great start with iPhone 3G. 22 Countries. 1 millionth iPhone 3G just 3 days after its launch.
- Customer reaction to iPhone 3G overwhelmingly positive.
- App Store: offers more than 900 applications, with 20% free. 90% less than $10.
- Customers loving the App Store. Over 25 million Apps downloaded so far.
- Retail Stores. 476,000 Macs sold. 1/2 were sold to customers new to Mac.
- 216 Stores Worldwide by end of Quarter. Extending international stores. Switzerland and Germany coming.
- Looking forward to 4th Quarter: Great start with iPhone 3G. Expect to sell more iPhones in Q4 than any previous quarter. Due to subscription recording, much of the revenue will be deferred to future quarters. "Future product transition". Can't discuss today.
- More great new products later this year.

Question and Answer Highlights

- International sales growing well. Beijing store doing well already.
- Added 170 Best Buy stores. Total of 570. 600 by end of summer.
- Apple introduces new products that initially cost more because they deliver a new level of value to the customer. Then drive costs down and staying out of reach of our competitors. Apple will follow this plan again in the future.
- Question regarding Steve Jobs' health. Answer: Jobs has no plans to leave Apple. Steve's health is a private matter.
- Apple TV remains a "hobby" because its not a very large business and still continuing to invest in it.
- Stunning response to iPhone 3G. Sold out due to overwhelming demand. Pleased with production ramp. Shipping units as fast as they can. Trying to catch the demand. Confident enough that they will be launching about 20 additional countries on August 22nd. And over 70 countries later this year.
- Apple reiterates they will be delivering state of the art new products at prices their competitors can't match. Very excited about what they have in their new product pipeline.
- Significant interest in Enterprise adoption for the iPhone 3G.
- Looks at App Store like the iTunes Store. Not a huge revenue generator. Instead something to make the iPhone and iPod touch more attractive.
- Welcomes competition from mobile phone companies and believe they are well positioned with the iPhone.

 

[ddrueding]

Uda, is Apple paying you? All those links are directly to fanboy sites?

 

[LunarMist]

Spam, sausage, spam, spam, spam, bacon, spam, tomato and spam.

 

[Stereodude]

Apparently Uda sidelines as a financial adviser and Apple fanboy.

I guess we need an Op/Ed section here for his posts.

 

[Handruin]

Spam, sausage, spam, spam, spam, bacon, spam, tomato and spam.

:rofl:

 

[Santilli]

You are truly foolish if you think any of the stuff you posted has ANYTHING to do with stock prices. If you decide you want to gamble, and play on the shoe strings of ultra-rich folks that play games, and manipulate by buying and dumping stocks, feel free to loose as much money as you want...

 

[Stereodude]

While I don't share Santilli's apparent view of the entire stock market, Apple stock defies logic. Their stock is overpriced by an order a magnitude for their sales and what they do. I would definitely steer clear of gambling with Apple.

 

[Santilli]

cost me 100 grand, betting on MSFT, and, stuff that should have been very safe...I paid for my position...

 

[Mercutio]

Apple's stock position is based on its status as a lifestyle brand, rather than the value of its goods and services. Apple fans have an astonishing level of loyalty to its products, as evinced by uda's evangelism.

The interesting factor of Apple's market position is that it's been in that range for an unusually long time. Usually a company that inspires consumer trust and loyalty the way Apple does will fall by the wayside after only a few years (e.g. Nike), but at this point there's an actual marketing position that's centered around an "Apple Lifestyle" that includes iPods and Macbooks along with Apple services like iTunes and .Mac, and a lot of non-Apple companies have tried with varying degrees of success to tap into the same mindset. Apple users literally do have an idea that they are the hip, stylish individuals who don't need to know how all their personal technology works, just like the guys in the Mac vs. PC commercials.

At any rate, Apple's stock price is not as much built in its technology as the value of its marketing. As dismissive as we technophiles are of that nonquantitative property, it is a real thing, and in the case of Apple its value is very, very high.

 

[Mercutio]

I swear I only hit Post once.

 

[Gilbo]

I'm always reminded of this Keynes quotation when people talk about buying stocks:

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

 

[udaman]

Two reasons analysis give for current volatility in Apple's stock-

1. reduced expectations, below what analysts have hoped...due to guidance given by Apple about reduced gross profit margins, which frightens shareholders.
Apple to forego Intel's Monteviña chipset in next new Mac's?
http://www.appleinsider.com/article...to_have_something_special_under_the_hood.html

A move by Apple away from Intel chipsets may also be tied to concerns over the power-hungry nature of the chipmaker's more recent mobile chipsets. The Mac maker has been working to reduce the size and weight of its notebook offerings while simultaneously extending battery life and introducing new features not accessible to its rivals.

During a recent quarterly conference call, Apple chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer uncharacteristically made references to ongoing investments in new product technologies that would pressure the company's profit margins but leave competitors scrambling by the side of the road.

"We have some investments in front of us that I can’t discuss with you today where we’re going to be delivering state of the art new products that our competitors just aren’t going to be able to match," he said, "and as a result, I would see gross margins being about 30 percent and that’s – that’s all I can tell you at this point."

2. Recent worries about Steve Job's health as explained in this NYTimes editorial piece (my mother, 2x's a cancer survivor herself, has lost 20lbs in the last 6 months and we don't know why...like Jobs, lack of energy and loss of appetite...for her age, my father doesn't seem to be paying attention to that, as far as I can tell ):
Apple’s Culture of Secrecy


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/business/26nocera.html?

He talked about how he had learned in 2004 that he had a tumor on his pancreas. How his doctors told him that he shouldn’t expect to live more than six months. How, after “living with that diagnosis all day,” he had a biopsy that showed that his was a rare form of pancreatic cancer, curable with surgery. “I had the surgery and I’m fine now,” Mr. Jobs told the Stanford graduates. He added, “Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose.”
It was an uplifting tale, and an inspiring message. It was also less than the whole truth. In fact, Mr. Jobs first discovered he had an islet cell neuroendocrine tumor — which is both rarer and less deadly than other forms of pancreatic cancer — in October 2003. This was a full nine months before he had the surgery to remove it. Why did he wait so long? Because, according to a Fortune magazine article published in May, Mr. Jobs was hoping to beat the cancer with a special diet.
The Apple directors who knew the gravity of the situation urged him to undergo surgery, according to the Fortune article. But it was only when Mr. Jobs realized that the tumor was growing that he finally agreed. And only after the surgery was successful did he inform employees that he had been sick, in an e-mail message in which he declared himself “cured.” That’s how Apple’s shareholders found out, too. The company has never spoken about his illness, citing his “privacy” concerns.

Steven P. Jobs in September 2003, before he had surgery to remove a tumor on his pancreas, and in June of this year, right. Recently rumors surfaced that Mr. Jobs was sick again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/business/26nocera.html?pagewanted=2&_r=3

It would be horrible if Mr. Jobs had a recurrence of cancer. I hope it never happens. At 53, he is in the prime of his life, the father of a young family. And for the rest of us, it’s exhilarating watching him work his magic in the marketplace. Steve Jobs has created more value and driven more innovation than just about anybody in business. Who doesn’t want to see what he’ll come up with next?
He also, though, needs to treat his shareholders with at least a modicum of respect. And telling them whether or not he is sick would be a good place to start.
On Thursday afternoon, several hours after I’d gotten my final “Steve’s health is a private matter” — and much to my amazement — Mr. Jobs called me. “This is Steve Jobs,” he began. “You think I’m an arrogant [expletive] who thinks he’s above the law, and I think you’re a slime bucket who gets most of his facts wrong.” After that rather arresting opening, he went on to say that he would give me some details about his recent health problems, but only if I would agree to keep them off the record. I tried to argue him out of it, but he said he wouldn’t talk if I insisted on an on-the-record conversation. So I agreed.
Because the conversation was off the record, I cannot disclose what Mr. Jobs told me. Suffice it to say that I didn’t hear anything that contradicted the reporting that John Markoff and I did this week. While his health problems amounted to a good deal more than “a common bug,” they weren’t life-threatening and he doesn’t have a recurrence of cancer. After he hung up the phone, it occurred to me that I had just been handed, by Mr. Jobs himself, the very information he was refusing to share with the shareholders who have entrusted him with their money.
You would think he’d want them to know before me. But apparently not.

 

[Santilli]

You REALLY want to figure out how Sheiks, Sony, and other ultra rich folks want to manipulate the market?

It's simple. They buy huge, run the price up on anything they think maybe something they can manipulate, run up it's value, dump their stocks at the top, drive the price down by their sales.

You are always a day late, and a dollar short.

All you really have to do is watch "Enron", and you can see a classic job of stock manipulation, this time from within the company.

 

[Santilli]

I just hit the send button, and, the message above was sent, but, the connection timed out.

I tried to send it again, and, I got the duplicate post message, wait 5 minutes.

 

[Santilli]

I think Mercutio has hit the nail on the head. In silicon Valley alone, responsible for at one time the 6th largest economy in the world, or so Kali used to be rated, you have some very rich, very much irrational people who can afford the endless new toys their apple stuff is...