"The inevitable arrival of subscription-based Windows"
- Thread starter snowhiker
- Start date
Tannin
Storage? I am Storage!
The inevitable arrival of desktop Linux.
^ FTFY
^ FTFY
Stereodude
Not really a
Only if the Linux clowns decide to stop intentionally trying to be different for the sake of not being Windows and, you know, do something crazy like copy the Windows US so the average Windows user can actually use Linux without having to relearn everything. Considering how well the Linux community has emulated Photoshop with Gimp I would say Microsoft has absolutely nothing to worry about.
I suspect it would be cost prohibitive to license the UI from Microsoft. Stealing it and paying lawyers get's expensive quickly. Organizations that give their product away for free don't tend to have lots of cash on hand.
ddrueding
Fixture
Exact duplication wouldn't be necessary. Simply getting close enough that everything isn't a youtube video away would be nice. An alternative would be some kind of standardization across distros, so that someone with a basic level of knowledge can say on their resume that they "know Linux" in the same way that you can say you "know Windows".
ddrueding
Fixture
Not that it really matters, Linux has already stood on principle too long. It will now stand on the sidelines with Unix and BSD while Android takes over the market it could have had years ago.
Bozo
Storage? I am Storage!
An old saying: "Too many chefs spoil the soup" It could be paraphrased "too many distros spoil the Linux"
Think of this: a person finally gets the shits of Windows an MS. 'I'll move to Linux'. This person Google's Linux and gets a bunch distros. (Debian, Red Hat, Ubuntu, Mint, plus other assorted Linux links)
If this person stumbles onto Distrowatch, they will find 100 Linux distros listed in a side bar. 99% of people looking to move to Linux will quit right there. But our 1%er decides on Mint as it is #1. But there are 5 flavors of Mint. Our 1%er quits right there. (even the Mint and Ubuntu web sites are not geared toward the novice)
Until the major players agree on a standard desktop, a standard set of features, and a standard EASY way to install programs ( that mimic Windows ) Linux will be an also ran on the desktop.
Think of this: a person finally gets the shits of Windows an MS. 'I'll move to Linux'. This person Google's Linux and gets a bunch distros. (Debian, Red Hat, Ubuntu, Mint, plus other assorted Linux links)
If this person stumbles onto Distrowatch, they will find 100 Linux distros listed in a side bar. 99% of people looking to move to Linux will quit right there. But our 1%er decides on Mint as it is #1. But there are 5 flavors of Mint. Our 1%er quits right there. (even the Mint and Ubuntu web sites are not geared toward the novice)
Until the major players agree on a standard desktop, a standard set of features, and a standard EASY way to install programs ( that mimic Windows ) Linux will be an also ran on the desktop.
Chewy509
Wotty wot wot.
Seriously, WTF, this is a clear money grab... especially targetting those users who only upgrade their desktops/laptops when they die. (eg every 5-8 yrs).
As for GNU/Linux taking over... I certainly would love to see alternate systems getting more market share than Windows (ideally, I would like to see MS, Apple and GNU/Linux all have equal market share), but is it going to happen? No today and not tomorrow... Next year? Doubtful.
The one strength of the GNU/Linux world is choice, but this is also it's poision against gaining mainstream acceptance and support. As Bozo mentions, the choices on Distro's certainly doesn't help, but then there are multiple versions of each (each focused on a particular Desktop Environment (DE)), and from what I've found the populace in general does not like choice, but would rather have something decreed unto them as the one true way. Also coupled with the breakage that often occurs between updates, and I'm not talking about minor crap, but major functionality breakage. (See my recent post on Ubuntu 14.04 and smb). People with the money who would invest in the GNU/Linux ecosystem don't like that level of uncertainity. (hence why commercial UNIX systems are still fairly strong in the market).
Sorry to disagree Bozo, but the " and a standard EASY way to install programs ( that mimic Windows ) " comment seems a little off. Both Apple and MS are moving towards a centralised AppStore model, which IMHO is nothing more than a central application repository that many Linux distro's have had for years. The package managers that come with Ubuntu/Debian/RedHat are all really good at finding applications that a user may want. Also, the fundamentals between the user experience between the UNIX world and the Windows world is so different, why would you need to emulate the experience. People have a harder time adjusting to a new experience when it's 99% close to the old, than to something that is 90% different. (People expect and demand that the 99% really be 100% of the old way, and refuse to adjust that tiny bit, but are more willing to accept a whole new change).
@sd, "Considering how well the Linux community has emulated Photoshop with Gimp", I wasn't aware that one of gimp's goal was complete emulation of the PS experience? But in today's software arena full of patents/copyrights/trademarks, it would be hard for any application to emulate the experience of another application without being sued for either copyright or patent infrigement, or just a broad application of the US DCMA laws.
Also, a lot of people put down something some new as inherintly bad, but is this always justified? People bemone the changes to new versions of applications and OS, but have they really sat down and gone, does this UI enhance my workflow, or how can I take advantage of the changes to improve my current workflow? I bet most, won't and will call the new version, <insert own profanity>.
As for GNU/Linux taking over... I certainly would love to see alternate systems getting more market share than Windows (ideally, I would like to see MS, Apple and GNU/Linux all have equal market share), but is it going to happen? No today and not tomorrow... Next year? Doubtful.
The one strength of the GNU/Linux world is choice, but this is also it's poision against gaining mainstream acceptance and support. As Bozo mentions, the choices on Distro's certainly doesn't help, but then there are multiple versions of each (each focused on a particular Desktop Environment (DE)), and from what I've found the populace in general does not like choice, but would rather have something decreed unto them as the one true way. Also coupled with the breakage that often occurs between updates, and I'm not talking about minor crap, but major functionality breakage. (See my recent post on Ubuntu 14.04 and smb). People with the money who would invest in the GNU/Linux ecosystem don't like that level of uncertainity. (hence why commercial UNIX systems are still fairly strong in the market).
Sorry to disagree Bozo, but the " and a standard EASY way to install programs ( that mimic Windows ) " comment seems a little off. Both Apple and MS are moving towards a centralised AppStore model, which IMHO is nothing more than a central application repository that many Linux distro's have had for years. The package managers that come with Ubuntu/Debian/RedHat are all really good at finding applications that a user may want. Also, the fundamentals between the user experience between the UNIX world and the Windows world is so different, why would you need to emulate the experience. People have a harder time adjusting to a new experience when it's 99% close to the old, than to something that is 90% different. (People expect and demand that the 99% really be 100% of the old way, and refuse to adjust that tiny bit, but are more willing to accept a whole new change).
@sd, "Considering how well the Linux community has emulated Photoshop with Gimp", I wasn't aware that one of gimp's goal was complete emulation of the PS experience? But in today's software arena full of patents/copyrights/trademarks, it would be hard for any application to emulate the experience of another application without being sued for either copyright or patent infrigement, or just a broad application of the US DCMA laws.
Also, a lot of people put down something some new as inherintly bad, but is this always justified? People bemone the changes to new versions of applications and OS, but have they really sat down and gone, does this UI enhance my workflow, or how can I take advantage of the changes to improve my current workflow? I bet most, won't and will call the new version, <insert own profanity>.
Chewy509
Wotty wot wot.
Already happening... LSB (Linux Standard Base) already defines a lot, and a lot of distros' are moving to using systemd as the init environment... The only other change is package management, but with GUI applications handling most of the underlying differences, most users shouldn't be too out of place switching between distros.
Chewy509
Wotty wot wot.
I interested in how and why you have this opinion that "Linux clowns" are intentionally trying to be different? Do you consider the Windows UI and UX and other MS developed technologies to be the pinnicle of achievement? Do you consider the effort to improve the UI/UX or other core technologies over what we already have a lost cause?
Stereodude
Not really a
I wasn't suggesting they copy it pixel for pixel. It just needs to be functionally similar.
Give a Windows user Ubuntu with the Unity UI, they'll be lost. Mint with Cinnamon they can probably handle.
It seems that most Linux developers like that Linux is quirky and can't be instantly picked up by the inferior Windows using lowlifes. As if it somehow makes them better, when in reality it simply prevents growth of the user base.
Stereodude
Not really a
Hey, they can pick their hill and die on it alone for all I care. But don't start whining about how Linux can't seem to expand it's desktop "marketshare" when they refuse to make a product that's intuitive for a Windows user to pick up.
Open Office / Libre Office is a good example. It's very similar to MS Office. A MS Office user would likely have had no problems quickly adapting to it.
Ubuntu with Unity, not a chance...
Stereodude
Not really a
I can't for the life of me figure out what Gimp is trying to be other than be extremely frustrating to use. It's similar enough to Photoshop that you would logically expect it to work like Photoshop, but it doesn't. In contrast to Gimp, Paint.net is a great program. It doesn't pretend to be Photoshop. It works differently Photoshop. Is it frustrating to use? No.
Lets make another comparison... FireFox to IE. Is FF identical to IE? No. Do you need to show a diehard IE user how to use it? No, it's functionally similar enough that an IE user can adapt and use it in virtually no time.
In general, the Linux community at large could learn something from Firefox and Open/Libre Office.
Functionally similar is likely good enough to get sued when dealing with a UI. Think of all the lawsuits that resulted from similar finger motions used in smartphones as an example. There is no simple line that Linux can use that defines what is similar enough but isn't so close that they won't get sued because that line is defined my Microsoft's willingness to sue. Whether Microsoft wins in the courts is a different matter but it is the cost of the lawsuit not the likelihood of winning or losing that motivates. Linus can't afford the lawsuit while Microsoft has lots of cash and a market share to defend.
Tea
Storage? I am Storage!
Of all the user interface experiences in the history of the world to date, the very last one any simian in her right mind would want to emulate would be that of Photoshop. I've seen better user interface experiences vomited on pavements.
ddrueding
Fixture
With the high adoption rate of tablet and Cloud-based OS distros (I'm looking at you ChromeOS) Microsoft is only going to push people into those devices more or push them over to Apple. No average consumer is going to even attempt to go to Google and type in Linux because they've never even heard of it. Forget the Linux distribution battles, they've already lost. Microsoft will likely get one to two years of fees out of new customers because they walked into this new scheme unknowingly or because they are in disbelief that they now have to pay a monthly subscription for their "computer". Some may upgrade unknowingly and a small percentage will be on board with the new scheme.
Later down the road in 2017, manufacturers will either advertise the clear benefits of some newfangled tablet with "no monthly fees" or they will somehow work on their own "OS" which may likely be some variant of Android, Linux, Chromium, or FreeBSD, etc. Meanwhile Microsoft will again realize their mistake and now stop charging a subscriptions...just like they've changed last minute in the past. They will once again be too late to fix the issue. Now the market is fragmented even more and every average consumer is confused more than before.
Later down the road in 2017, manufacturers will either advertise the clear benefits of some newfangled tablet with "no monthly fees" or they will somehow work on their own "OS" which may likely be some variant of Android, Linux, Chromium, or FreeBSD, etc. Meanwhile Microsoft will again realize their mistake and now stop charging a subscriptions...just like they've changed last minute in the past. They will once again be too late to fix the issue. Now the market is fragmented even more and every average consumer is confused more than before.
jtr1962
Storage? I am Storage!
I tend to agree with Doug. Subscriptions will only work if every other commonly used OS is on board for them as well. Thanks to competition, that won't happen.
Tea
Storage? I am Storage!
That's because there aren't any graphics editing programs other than Photoshop. Well, not unless you count Paint Shop Pro, which I don't. Adobe bought out and shot down all the others.
They haven't bothered doing that with Paint Shop Pro 'coz they always reckoned that Corel could do a better job of borking it than Adobe ever could, and cheaper too. History has proved them right. The only other one worth mentioning has a user interface so far ahead of Photoshop that people actually like it. OK, Lightroom has the worst file handling system of any program of any kind I have ever seen in my life - well, none to speak of - but the at least the UI is sensible and decently thought through.
I could vomit a better UI than Photoshop has. For one thing, vomit generally has a reasonable consistency between different parts.
Photoshop is to graphics editing what the Chinese written language and civil service examination system was to political power. Candidates for almost any civic office were required to spend decades studying the language and memorising its tens of thousands of different characters. The only route to employment in the Chinese Empire was via the exam system, which essentially tested ability in this arcane and largely useless specialty. The best and brightest people in the Empire wasted decades of their lives doing non-productive study of the arcane system instead of doing something of practical use. For a thousand years, no-one questioned the merit of the system because the only people with the right to question the system were the ones who had spent three or four decades internalising the values of the system and learning it well enough to pass the exam. (Typically, just 2% of candidates passed.) If you hadn't passed the exam, obviously your opinion was of no merit. For a thousand years, while the system grew more and more absurd, impractical, and outdated, it remained the only game in town.
Tea
Storage? I am Storage!
I have a Linux subscription. Every year without fail I have to pay the greedy bastards $0.00 plus another $0.00 tax, and I don't even get a long-term customer discount!