The Real Shortcomings: Branch Misprediction Penalty and Instruction Cache Hit Rate
Bulldozer is a deeply pipelined CPU, just like Sandy Bridge, but the latter has a µop cache that can cut the fetching and decoding cycles out of the branch misprediction penalty. The lower than expected performance in SAP and SQL Server, plus the fact that the worst performing subbenches in SPEC CPU2006 int are the ones with hard to predict branches, all points to there being a serious problem with branch misprediction.
Our Code Analyst profiling shows that AMD engineers did a good job on the branch prediction unit: the BPU definitely predicts better than the previous AMD designs. The problem is that Bulldozer cannot hide its long misprediction penalty, which Intel does manage with Sandy Bridge. That also explains why AMD states that branch prediction improvements in "Piledriver" ("Trinity") are only modest (1% performance improvements). As branch predictors get more advanced, a few tweaks here and there cannot do much.
It will be interesting to see if AMD will adopt a µop cache in the near future, as it would lower the branch prediction penalty, save power, and lower the pressure on the decoding part. It looks like a perfect match for this architecture.