Coronavirus

Handruin

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I actually thought about a treatment involving light where you expose the inside of the lungs to enough light to kill the virus but not the lung cells. I've been trying to find who I might contact regarding this.
Sure, but that's the kind of thing you put together a plan, then test, then develop, then test, then get FDA approval, etc. Don't just announce to the country using your platform some wildly untested and crazy ideas that have no real merit.
 

jtr1962

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I urge everyone here to sign this petition:


First off, I can't believe they reopened the markets while the pandemic is still raging across the planet. If this wasn't a wake up call, I don't know what is.

Second, the only way to shut these things down is to ban travel to any countries which have them. Not just China, but any and all countries which still have wet markets. They might learn their lesson when it hits them in the wallet.
 

snowhiker

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I think many, many people around the world are going to think twice about buying Chinese goods. At least for the few things you can actually buy that aren't made in China. I also think there is going to be some resentment and anger directed at China that will be added to previous low-level mistrust that's was already present against China. At least for a while. Whether this will lead to any change is a mystery.

China is now #10 on the list of "official infections," and it looks like Brazil will knock China out of the top 10 in a week or two. China, the most populated nation on earth, will make boasts about how superior their system is and has kept their infection and death rate low.

Who knows what the real numbers are. And that's the point; nobody worldwide believes anything from China. Specifically the CCP. Can China come clean and be honest? Allow inspections and investigations to find, evaluate, fix, and prevent future outbreaks? Make concessions? Have some compassion for the rest of the world? China should change, but I kind of hope they remain arrogant and prideful. Hopefully this will encourage the world's nations to "wake the F up" and bring back some localized domestic production of the vital and essential good people need to survive.
 

snowhiker

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I don't think "returning to normal" is going to be anything that will happen in just a few weeks. I think the earliest might be the middle of next year before we stop seeing/thinking about the changes to society caused by the pandemic. Ie. How long before people stopped thinking about 9/11 on a daily basis type thing.

One part of this return to normalcy is how interaction with business will return to "normal."

Imagine all public and social distancing restrictions were lifted and companies could act however they want. How do you think companies will handle the return to normalcy? Depends on the type of business of course but what scenarios do you see as most probable?

A) Will they keep their pandemic procedures and regulations in place for another month or three just for legal reasons? (ie. being sued post-pandemic for allowing more infections)?

B) Slowly, but immediately lift some restrictions then re-evaluate later?

C) Drop all the "costly" restrictions immediately but keep some "see we care about your safety" restrictions in place?

D) Immediately return to pre-pandemic restrictions?

E) Permanently keep some restrictions in place as part of their marketing strategy?
 

jtr1962

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I think many, many people around the world are going to think twice about buying Chinese goods. At least for the few things you can actually buy that aren't made in China. I also think there is going to be some resentment and anger directed at China that will be added to previous low-level mistrust that's was already present against China. At least for a while. Whether this will lead to any change is a mystery.
I think the game changer here will be automation. Up until now the justification for having stuff made in China was cheaper labor and the fact it's hard to find American workers willing to do factory work at any price. Automation will change all that. Short term we'll probably continue having a lot of stuff made in China. As more of this can be done with a minimum of human workers we'll start transitioning manufacturing back home. This won't result in more jobs for Americans, but it will result is the continued supply of inexpensive goods, perhaps even less expensive than made in China.

China is now #10 on the list of "official infections," and it looks like Brazil will knock China out of the top 10 in a week or two. China, the most populated nation on earth, will make boasts about how superior their system is and has kept their infection and death rate low. Who knows what the real numbers are.
Their numbers are too good to be true, especially the rate at which new cases and deaths declined after the lock down. Everywhere else, it looks like it'll be 2 months plus from the peak in daily deaths to get to nearly zero. China magically did it in only one month. And their death toll is likely much, much higher than they're letting on. My guess it well over 100,000 but even over 1 million wouldn't surprise me.

And that's the point; nobody worldwide believes anything from China. Specifically the CCP. Can China come clean and be honest? Allow inspections and investigations to find, evaluate, fix, and prevent future outbreaks? Make concessions? Have some compassion for the rest of the world? China should change, but I kind of hope they remain arrogant and prideful. Hopefully this will encourage the world's nations to "wake the F up" and bring back some localized domestic production of the vital and essential good people need to survive.
Shutting down the wet markets for good, and allowing independent inspectors to make regular, unannounced visits to check, would go a long way towards engendering good will. For its part, the US needs to address factory farming which has given rise to things like the swine flu. We're hardly blameless, even though factory farming is far less conducive to pandemics than wet markets.

I don't think "returning to normal" is going to be anything that will happen in just a few weeks. I think the earliest might be the middle of next year before we stop seeing/thinking about the changes to society caused by the pandemic. Ie. How long before people stopped thinking about 9/11 on a daily basis type thing.
I agree. Middle or late 2021 before a complete return to normalcy. It all depends upon how quickly we have a vaccine and get it mass produced.

One part of this return to normalcy is how interaction with business will return to "normal."

Imagine all public and social distancing restrictions were lifted and companies could act however they want. How do you think companies will handle the return to normalcy? Depends on the type of business of course but what scenarios do you see as most probable?

A) Will they keep their pandemic procedures and regulations in place for another month or three just for legal reasons? (ie. being sued post-pandemic for allowing more infections)?

B) Slowly, but immediately lift some restrictions then re-evaluate later?

C) Drop all the "costly" restrictions immediately but keep some "see we care about your safety" restrictions in place?

D) Immediately return to pre-pandemic restrictions?

E) Permanently keep some restrictions in place as part of their marketing strategy?
Keep in mind each year the US has a flu season which kills 10,000 to 50,000 people and keeps millions of people out sick from work for at least a few days. That's a big economic hit. Companies might run the numbers, and find it's in their economic best interest to keep these measures in place for good. Just having UVC lamps sterilizing work places or public transit at times when workers aren't there would be a very inexpensive, highly effective solution. So will offering sick time and requiring sick workers to stay home. If keeping work places cleaner means fewer people get sick in the first place, offering sick time becomes far less costly.
 

time

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First off, I can't believe they reopened the markets while the pandemic is still raging across the planet. If this wasn't a wake up call, I don't know what is.

Second, the only way to shut these things down is to ban travel to any countries which have them. Not just China, but any and all countries which still have wet markets. They might learn their lesson when it hits them in the wallet.
I've made this point before, but Wet Market is just another term for Farmers' Market. Perhaps these aren't very common in the Land of the Supermarket, but they are everywhere else on the planet.

I found this reprint of a Bloomberg opinion piece was a reasonable injection of reality

That petition is an Animal Welfare project - which is valid - but it's not concerned with human welfare.

The information that SARS-CoV-2 did not originate (jump to humans) at the Wuhan market as first suspected is easy to find, but I've noticed that most journalists don't want to spoil that story.
 

time

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I think many, many people around the world are going to think twice about buying Chinese goods. At least for the few things you can actually buy that aren't made in China.
That would assume that consumers are able and willing to vote with their feet. I'm afraid that's an illusion that is used to brainwash the citizenry.

Even for items that aren't imported directly from China, it still forms key parts of the supply chain.

Don't get me wrong, I'm well aware of the problems that this has created, but business will do whatever the hell it takes to make an extra buck.
 

jtr1962

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I've made this point before, but Wet Market is just another term for Farmers' Market. Perhaps these aren't very common in the Land of the Supermarket, but they are everywhere else on the planet.

I found this reprint of a Bloomberg opinion piece was a reasonable injection of reality

That petition is an Animal Welfare project - which is valid - but it's not concerned with human welfare.

The information that SARS-CoV-2 did not originate (jump to humans) at the Wuhan market as first suspected is easy to find, but I've noticed that most journalists don't want to spoil that story.
Maybe you don't understand that the term for farmer's market means something completely different in the US, and probably much of the rest of the developed world. Sure, we have farmer's markets, even in NYC, and they sell fruits and vegetables. They don't sell animals at all, much less a mixture of domestic and wild species, and they certainly don't slaughter animals on the premises. Epidemiologists have said the live animal markets in China are a ticking time bomb. They're also cruel to animals regardless of their disease potential. Whether or not this particular disease came out of a wet market, or not is moot. Trade in wild animals, destruction of habitat, and so forth leads to diseases which may have never seen the light of day making it into human populations. It's not just the wet markets which are a problem but the entire infrastructure surrounding them. Maybe next time we'll get something just as contagious, but with a 50% mortality rate. I think we should consider ourselves lucky this time around, and do whatever we can to make sure it never happens again.
 

jtr1962

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Apparently there's 80 wet markets just in NYC:

Well, those have to go also. Along with factory farming.

It's time to put a lot of R&D into cultured meat. It seems to be the only sustainable way we can continue consuming meat.
 

Chewy509

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Leaked documents demonstrate links between Australia's CSIRO and Chinese scientists working in various biolabs in China, including the one in Wuhan...

https://7news.com.au/news/world/australian-csiro-in-geelong-linked-to-coronavirus-bat-laboratory-theory--c-1002195

IMHO this may be a bit of manufactured news, as it's not uncommon for researchers from all around the world (in all fields of science) to share knowledge and research...

Whilst many scientists independently have confirmed the coronavirus is not man made (it has none of the normal telltale markers), there still persists a theory that the virus (found in nature) was under investigation in the Wuhan Lab, and was either accidentally leaked or deliberately leaked from the lab...
 

jtr1962

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Whilst many scientists independently have confirmed the coronavirus is not man made (it has none of the normal telltale markers), there still persists a theory that the virus (found in nature) was under investigation in the Wuhan Lab, and was either accidentally leaked or deliberately leaked from the lab...
That's entirely plausible, but this still doesn't means the virus couldn't have originated due to the conditions created by wet markets.

Not sure what China would stand to gain from a deliberate leak though. This has hurt their economy as much as anyone else's.
 

Chewy509

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Not sure what China would stand to gain from a deliberate leak though.
Possible test on a small population to track infection and fatality rates, and (wrongly) assumed they could keep it contained...

(Not that I personally prescribe that is what happened).

Note, this wouldn't be the first time a government or one of its agencies have tested on local populations:
https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-a-history-of-testing-biological-weapons-on-the-public-were-infected-ticks-used-too-120638
https://www.businessinsider.com/military-government-secret-experiments-biological-chemical-weapons-2016-9?r=AU&IR=T
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5041545/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/how-the-british-government-subjected-thousands-of-people-to-chemical-and-biological-warfare-trials-10376411.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/apr/21/uk.medicalscience

Assuming this is just the tip of the iceberg...
 

snowhiker

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Activity on this thread seems to have tapered off.

Disturbing trend: Hospitals are (maybe?) falsely naming COVID-19 as the cause of death in order to receive more funding and insurance re-reimbursements. And/or stating ventilators were used for patient treatment, again to receive more funding, payments or stimulus monies.
 

jtr1962

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Activity on this thread seems to have tapered off.

Disturbing trend: Hospitals are (maybe?) falsely naming COVID-19 as the cause of death in order to receive more funding and insurance re-reimbursements. And/or stating ventilators were used for patient treatment, again to receive more funding, payments or stimulus monies.
That seems to be a conspiracy theory. A hospital can lose its license by making too many false reports. I doubt many will do that just to receive a little extra funding.

On another note, I really feel parts of the country are reopening way too soon. Until we have widespread testing and contact tracing in place, reopening is unthinkable. In a month we'll be right back where we started.
 

Chewy509

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Due to low daily new case rate, (less than 10 new cases per day*) Australia is now starting its process on lessening the restrictions on daily life...

We can now travel for non-essential shopping (less than 50km), and start visiting beaches, parks, etc. However must maintain social distancing...

However, what I personally saw a few days ago at a local shopping centre (needed a few things from a retailer), I wouldn't be surprised if Australia gets hit by a very significant second wave...

*Source: https://www.health.gov.au/resources/daily-number-of-reported-covid-19-cases-in-australia
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/easing-of-coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions/easing-of-coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions
 

time

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Due to low daily new case rate, (less than 10 new cases per day*)
Actually, new cases has only dropped below 10 per day once in the last 14 days. The count today was 18.

The bullsh*t factor is pretty high, the highlight being a claim by our Prime Minister that Australia had done better than New Zealand (which had a more comprehensive lockdown). In fact, Australia has confirmed 233 new cases over the last 14 days and New Zealand 25.

I think the US is slowing - which you would expect given the populous parts of the country are in lockdown. Can't see any reason why it wouldn't take off again once you relax the restrictions.

The UK was running out of control last week, with the government still busily lying to the people. Apparently, they don't even have mandatory quarantine for foreign travelers. Simply incredible.

Other out-of-control countries include Brazil and Russia, with about 10,000 new cases every day. Countries that are looking bad include Mexico and India. It seems that Singapore must have decided to stop reporting deaths, because despite adding more than 10,000 new cases, they haven't had any deaths for weeks.
 

time

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It's probably been obvious to virus researchers for ages, but there doesn't appear to be much chance of SARS-CoV-2 ever going away. I think it's here to stay, regardless of any potential vaccines or treatments.

1. We have only ever managed to eradicate one virus: Smallpox.
2. The concept of herd immunity only really works with diseases that aren't super contagious. You can work out the theoretical population threshold as 1 - 1/R0. So for a disease with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2, you need at least 50% of the population to have immunity. For COVID-19, the best statistical estimate to date is an R0 around 5.7. That means at least 82% of the population need to be immune just to stop it getting out of hand.
3. By and large, the only thing that can stop a virus is the body's own defenses. Viruses don't hang around as independent entities, they invade cells as soon as possible. Those cells are then lost to your body - no treatment can expel the virus from them, it's already too late.
4. No-one has ever produced a proven vaccine for a coronavirus. The old adage, "there is no cure for the common cold", applies to coronaviruses and rhinoviruses that cause colds. And no vaccine confers immunity to everyone who receives it.
 

jtr1962

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It's probably been obvious to virus researchers for ages, but there doesn't appear to be much chance of SARS-CoV-2 ever going away. I think it's here to stay, regardless of any potential vaccines or treatments.

1. We have only ever managed to eradicate one virus: Smallpox.
2. The concept of herd immunity only really works with diseases that aren't super contagious. You can work out the theoretical population threshold as 1 - 1/R0. So for a disease with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2, you need at least 50% of the population to have immunity. For COVID-19, the best statistical estimate to date is an R0 around 5.7. That means at least 82% of the population need to be immune just to stop it getting out of hand.
3. By and large, the only thing that can stop a virus is the body's own defenses. Viruses don't hang around as independent entities, they invade cells as soon as possible. Those cells are then lost to your body - no treatment can expel the virus from them, it's already too late.
4. No-one has ever produced a proven vaccine for a coronavirus. The old adage, "there is no cure for the common cold", applies to coronaviruses and rhinoviruses that cause colds. And no vaccine confers immunity to everyone who receives it.
It sounds like our only option then is to remain in lock down forever. Without an effective vaccine we're not returning to normal. Getting to herd immunity is unthinkable given the mortality rate. So what's left? Hope the virus mutates to a much less lethal strain and that strain displaces existing ones? I've heard that's likely to happen but the timeline is unknown.

Here's one thing I'm finding interesting about the countries which recently had large outbreaks like Russia. Their death rate seems a lot lower than countries which got hit badly by it weeks ago. In fact, the number of deaths in Russia is under 1% of the number of confirmed cases. In the US it's well over 5%. Does drinking lots of vodka result in better outcomes? I can't think of any other reason.
 

Handruin

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It sounds like our only option then is to remain in lock down forever. Without an effective vaccine we're not returning to normal. Getting to herd immunity is unthinkable given the mortality rate. So what's left? Hope the virus mutates to a much less lethal strain and that strain displaces existing ones? I've heard that's likely to happen but the timeline is unknown.

Here's one thing I'm finding interesting about the countries which recently had large outbreaks like Russia. Their death rate seems a lot lower than countries which got hit badly by it weeks ago. In fact, the number of deaths in Russia is under 1% of the number of confirmed cases. In the US it's well over 5%. Does drinking lots of vodka result in better outcomes? I can't think of any other reason.
The ratio of deaths in Russia seems suspect. What's more likely, the government isn't reporting the deaths accurately or something like vodka makes the difference? :)
 

jtr1962

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What's more likely, the government isn't reporting the deaths accurately or something like vodka makes the difference? :)
I'll go with the vodka. After all, it supports the opinion of that great medical expert our President that taking disinfectants internally might be a cure for this.
 

Handruin

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Sure, it's a cure...covid won't live or spread when you're dead from ingesting disinfectants internally. :)

Also, wtf is this new Obama Gate that he's conjuring up? When asked directly of the crimes, he misdirects. Yet another distraction technique to make people look away from the 82,000+ deaths reported in the US?
 

jtr1962

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Sure, it's a cure...covid won't live or spread when you're dead from ingesting disinfectants internally. :)
:ROFLMAO::LOL:

Also, wtf is this new Obama Gate that he's conjuring up? When asked directly of the crimes, he misdirects. Yet another distraction technique to make people look away from the 82,000+ deaths reported in the US?
Trump is busy rewriting history to increase his chances of being reelected. Now I'm no fan of Biden, but I'll take him over Trump at this point. Last thing we need is someone in the White House in the middle of a pandemic who is clueless about science. Trump is a legend in his own mind. He'll erase anything which is counter to that. I'm surprised it took him this long to start the blame game with the prior administration. Whatever his faults, at least Obama deferred to experts when he wasn't knowledgeable about a subject. Trump acts like he is the expert on all things. The country won't survive another four years of this egomaniac. And if Biden gets in, I hope he has a good pick for VP since there's a great chance he'll be mentally or physically unfit not long after he's sworn in.
 

Handruin

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He is totally trying to rewrite the narrative for anything that doesn't make him look good. That and he has been trying to undo everything and anything Obama ever did regardless if it makes sense to change. I'm not arguing that Obama did everything right (he did not), just that if Obama did something, Trump wants to remove him from it. I really believe it's because of some petty spite from when Obama roasted him during the Whitehouse correspondence dinner.

What do you mean it took Trump this long to blame the former administration? :) There are near countless documented direct references of Trump blaming Obama over the past 3+ years for various things. I'm sure some are valid; Obama made plenty of his own mistakes over his presidency but since Trump takes zero responsibility for his mistakes and literally just makes things up, I'm unwilling to entertain believing him on any of the complaints. He offers zero credibility to be complaining about any former administration.

I'm no Biden fan either, I think the whole thing is similar to being like 2016 again which is BS. I really think even Bush wouldn't have screwed up covid this bad. I agree, I hope Biden has a solid VP. I have concerns of his mental wellbeing. We really don't need more old white men running the country.
 

Chewy509

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Actually, new cases has only dropped below 10 per day once in the last 14 days. The count today was 18.

The bullsh*t factor is pretty high, the highlight being a claim by our Prime Minister that Australia had done better than New Zealand (which had a more comprehensive lockdown). In fact, Australia has confirmed 233 new cases over the last 14 days and New Zealand 25.
Apologies, misread the data, it should be 20-25 cases per day (avg).

Agree, the bs factor is extreme, but that's a given with our current government... Anything they print, or anything in the newspaper has to be treated with suspicion.
 

time

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In fact, the number of deaths in Russia is under 1% of the number of confirmed cases. In the US it's well over 5%. Does drinking lots of vodka result in better outcomes? I can't think of any other reason.
While the average Russian might agree with your reason, I can't see anything wrong with the Russian to date numbers:
April 21 cases = 52763 (-21 days)
April 28 cases = 93558 (-14 days)
May 12 deaths = 2116 (2.3% with average 14 days to death, 4% if you assume 21 days to death)

The number of confirmed cases always undercounts the number of infected. Apparently, even the most diligent countries detect only 50% of infections. And at least in in the early stages, most are busy trying to ramp up their tests to find the existing cases, so you would expect undercounting to be much worse. So the Russians appear to be taking this far more seriously (adding 11,000 positive test results each day) than some of their European neighbors did .

The US as a whole is too far out of control for the positive tests to have much correlation with actual infections:
(From state summaries, less than the accepted national numbers)
April 20 cases = 775850 (-21 days)
April 27 cases = 982668 (-14 days)
May 11 deaths = 74731 (7.6% with average 14 days to death, 9.6% if you assume 21 days to death)

To match other countries who excelled at testing in the earlier stages, you could safely assume the US should have recorded at least 3 million cases by now. That suggests that maybe 8 million people were infected, based on a significant chunk of those being asymptomatic.

Of course, the US healthcare system is easily the worst in first world countries when it comes to epidemics, so you might be justified in assuming that lots of people died without even seeing the inside of a hospital.
 

Chewy509

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IIRC, something else to consider with the Russian numbers as well... The majority of people dying worldwide are 60+ (for Australia, it's 70+), but the average life expectancy in the Russia is only 71... (with alcohol related deaths being quite common).
 

snowhiker

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Here's one thing I'm finding interesting about the countries which recently had large outbreaks like Russia. Their death rate seems a lot lower than countries which got hit badly by it weeks ago. In fact, the number of deaths in Russia is under 1% of the number of confirmed cases. In the US it's well over 5%. Does drinking lots of vodka result in better outcomes? I can't think of any other reason.
Crap. I haven't look at the numbers in a while. Russia was like 10th in the world just a bit ago, now they are number two on number of infections. China #11 and looks like India, Canada and Peru will pass China soon as well.

As I've said before, I think there is going to be a lot of hate and mistrust directed at China in the near future. China gave the world a pandemic and is not suffering as much as the rest of the world.

Regarding Russia. Death rate as a percentage of infections? Russia 1%, US 6%, UK 14%. Using the JHU site and calculating deaths/infections. Numbers do not add up. Perhaps the virus in Russia is now weaker as it peaked during a warmer time of the year? May v Feb/Mar? Perhaps the U.K. needs a lot more testing.

I still think some U.S. hospitals administrators are over reporting deaths as directly or in-directly caused by COVID-19. It's always the bean counters. Even if doctors aren't inflating COVID-19 deaths, hospital admins just might be. With a large number of hospitals about to go out of business there is definitely some financial incentive to attach a positive test result for COVID-19 to the paperwork of somebody who has died.

So an 85 yo patient with heart failure gets infected with COVID-19, the admin asks the doctor, "Was COVID-19 the cause of death?" Doc, "No the death was more than likely heart failure." Admin, "But is it possible......<wink> <wink>" Doc, "Well, yes it's possible." Now hospital gets $39k instead of $5k. Nobody "lied." It was possible. I think in Jan, Feb this wouldn't occur but now, with hospitals facing financial ruin? You betcha!

Jensen said, "Hospital administrators might well want to see COVID-19 attached to a discharge summary or a death certificate. Why? Because if it's a straightforward, garden-variety pneumonia that a person is admitted to the hospital for – if they're Medicare – typically, the diagnosis-related group lump sum payment would be $5,000. But if it's COVID-19 pneumonia, then it's $13,000, and if that COVID-19 pneumonia patient ends up on a ventilator, it goes up to $39,000."

The ratio of deaths in Russia seems suspect. What's more likely, the government isn't reporting the deaths accurately or something like vodka makes the difference? :)
I can understand why China might want to under report deaths but why would Russia under report deaths?

China would want to under report to tell the world don't blame us for Corona-Virus, "Your pandemic protocols were faulty. That's why your death rate is high." Plus the CCP pushing propaganda regarding their superior political system.

Russia would receive more world sympathy with a higher death count.
 

jtr1962

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Perhaps the virus in Russia is now weaker as it peaked during a warmer time of the year?
Or it mutated into a strain which spreads even faster but is less lethal, and this displaced prior strains. From a Darwinian evolution standpoint
this would make sense. In fact, as a general rule viruses generally mutate to less lethal forms, which in the long run could be good news for us. It won't matter if this spreads a lot if the case mortality rate drops to something like 0.01%. Even if everyone in the US who didn't already get it ends up with it, that would be a few ten thousands of deaths spread over some months, pretty much like seasonal flu. In its current form, however, it's far too lethal to let spread unchecked.
 

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"Cause of Death" is open to interpretation. Suppose a patient had a cold, which left them more vulnerable to the COVID-19 that they got, but that infection caused congestive heart failure. So is heart failure the cause of death, or is it COVID-19, or is it a cold?
why would Russia under report deaths?
For political/propaganda-l reasons, like some Leaders of the Free World might do if they were facing re-election in six months.
 

time

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Regarding Russia. Death rate as a percentage of infections? Russia 1%, US 6%, UK 14%. Using the JHU site and calculating deaths/infections. Numbers do not add up. Perhaps the virus in Russia is now weaker as it peaked during a warmer time of the year? May v Feb/Mar? Perhaps the U.K. needs a lot more testing.
The JHU site is comparing apples to oranges, and you're buying the fruit salad.

Positive cases and Deaths are two entirely separate domains with different timelines. It only makes sense to compare the total figures when the epidemic is done and dusted.

Try to visualize a single victim who tests positive around April 28 (and is therefore included in the case count for that day). They turn out to be one of the unlucky ones in the bottom 2-5% and end up dying on May 12. But in that 14 day period, there are a further 138,685 new cases. Yet none of those will die for at least another week and possibly 4 or 5.

In other words, your fatality rates are entirely dependent on the denominator in the ratio you are trying to calculate. We do not have access to the true fatality rates - you can only work them out once the victims have died, and that takes weeks. Researchers don't have a time machine so they have to rely on models to get some idea of CFR in real time - and that's definitely not what JHU is publishing.

JHU is the organization that last year ranked the US as the most prepared country on Earth to face an epidemic.
 

time

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It's worth pointing out that there are several countries with Case Fatality Ratios less than 2%. What they all have in common is better and more timely testing than the US and other hot spots. So the denominator (cases) is closer to the true number of infections and CFR is lower.

Inversely, a high apparent death rate is a telltale that testing has been inadequate. Testing limitations mean you can never really catch up if you were too slow.
 

jtr1962

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It's worth pointing out that there are several countries with Case Fatality Ratios less than 2%. What they all have in common is better and more timely testing than the US and other hot spots. So the denominator (cases) is closer to the true number of infections and CFR is lower.

Inversely, a high apparent death rate is a telltale that testing has been inadequate. Testing limitations mean you can never really catch up if you were too slow.
What I'm finding really interesting is that there are countries with extremely low case fatality rates. Singapore has 25,346 confirmed cases but only 21 deaths. That's a case fatality rate of only 0.083%. Qatar has 26,539 cases and only 14 deaths, for a CFR of 0.053%. Both of these countries were well over 10K cases 3 weeks ago, so it's not a matter of having 25K+ cases now but zero only a week ago, which might explain the very low numbers. Even using numbers from 3 weeks ago as the divisor gives you case fatality rates not much over 0.1%. Are some countries just really good at treating cases? If so, then this means other countries, like the US, are really bad at it.

I wonder if the CFR with proper, timely treatment might be well under 0.1%, instead of the 0.5% to 1% that we're seeing in most places. We should ask Qatar and Singapore what they're doing to save nearly everyone who gets sick.

Or might it be possible that in some places, perhaps including Russia, the virus mutated to a far less lethal form? Singapore and Qatar didn't start getting many cases until early April. Ditto for Russia. Meanwhile places like Italy and the US already had lots of infected people probably well back in February.
 

Handruin

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Meh, makes no difference to me. Bats aren't inherently bad in fact they're quite interesting creatures.
 
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