Coronavirus

[DrunkenBastard]

What I'm finding really interesting is that there are countries with extremely low case fatality rates. Singapore has 25,346 confirmed cases but only 21 deaths. That's a case fatality rate of only 0.083%. Qatar has 26,539 cases and only 14 deaths, for a CFR of 0.053%. Both of these countries were well over 10K cases 3 weeks ago, so it's not a matter of having 25K+ cases now but zero only a week ago, which might explain the very low numbers. Even using numbers from 3 weeks ago as the divisor gives you case fatality rates not much over 0.1%. Are some countries just really good at treating cases? If so, then this means other countries, like the US, are really bad at it.

I wonder if the CFR with proper, timely treatment might be well under 0.1%, instead of the 0.5% to 1% that we're seeing in most places. We should ask Qatar and Singapore what they're doing to save nearly everyone who gets sick.

Or might it be possible that in some places, perhaps including Russia, the virus mutated to a far less lethal form? Singapore and Qatar didn't start getting many cases until early April. Ditto for Russia. Meanwhile places like Italy and the US already had lots of infected people probably well back in February.

Not sure about Qatar but Singapore and Russia have very controlled press (dare to say something bad about the ruling political party and be locked up etc). You won't hear something the government doesn't want you to know.

 

[Newtun]

From: Trump says he’s taking hydroxychloroquine against Covid-19 despite FDA warnings:

Trump said he was taking hydroxychloroquine – a drug approved to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis – in response to the coronavirus threat.

But the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has been warning since April that the drug should not be used for that purpose because it could cause irregular heartbeats and other cardiac trauma.

The drug is not approved as a treatment for Covid-19 and Trump has not been diagnosed with the disease, to public knowledge.

Trump’s claim to be taking the drug was made as he attacked an administration whistleblower who went before Congress last week and described internal pressure to endorse the drug as an effective coronavirus treatment.

The whistleblower, Rick Bright, was the former director of a federal agency in charge of vaccines.

On Monday, Trump called Bright a hypocrite and then riffed on the supposed benefits of the drug, which the FDA advised has “not been shown to be safe and effective for treating or preventing Covid-19”.

“You’d be surprised at how many people are taking it … The frontline workers many many are taking it,” Trump said.

“I happen to be taking it. I happen to be taking it. I’m taking it, hydroxychloroquine. Right now, yeah. A couple weeks ago I started taking it. Because I think it’s good, I heard a lot of good stories … I take a pill every day.”

Sean P Conley, Trump’s physician, said in a memo that after “numerous discussions” with the president “for and against the use of hydroxychloroquine, we concluded the potential benefit from treatment outweighed the relative risks”.

Previously, Trump had endorsed the injection of disinfectants or light into the body to fight coronavirus – recommendations that were followed by a spike in calls to poison control centers.

But Trump had never before claimed to be trying one of the home remedies himself.

A string of studies around the world have suggested that hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine do little to prevent or treat Covid-19, and the FDA has cautioned against the use of either drug for Covid-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial “due to risk of heart rhythm problems”.

 

[Handruin]

Sounds about right...he's a con man.

Don't forget, nobody knows this stuff better than he does...

 

[jtr1962]

If nothing else, this might make the election a nonissue. If he kills himself taking this, I doubt Pence will get enough votes to become President.

I know Trump wasn't the brightest bulb on the string, but this just shows the depths of his ignorance.

 

[Handruin]

If nothing else, this might make the election a nonissue. If he kills himself taking this, I doubt Pence will get enough votes to become President.

I know Trump wasn't the brightest bulb on the string, but this just shows the depths of his ignorance.

I agree, I don't think Pence would be able to carry on in the event Trump kills himself.

The depth of his ignorance combined with his fragile ego makes for a very conforming party. If you don't do exactly what he wants even when it's incredibly ignorant, you're gone and then made fun of. That builds a party of "yes" people which helps almost no one but Trump.

 

[jtr1962]

If you don't do exactly what he wants even when it's incredibly ignorant, you're gone and then made fun of. That builds a party of "yes" people which helps almost no one but Trump.

Kind of like some other people we know from history:

Adolf Hitler - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Joseph Stalin - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Mao Zedong - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Idi Amin - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Pol Pot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Handruin]

Maybe...at the very least he has all the traits and symptoms of Narcissistic Personality Disorder. Here are some symptoms...of which anyone can observe right from Trump's weekly public addresses. No need to rely on any questionable media source...observe it yourself. I'm not a doctor, I'm simply pointing out how every one of the symptoms listed below has been observed by him...sometimes on a weekly basis.

Narcissistic personality disorder - Symptoms and causes

www.mayoclinic.org

Symptoms
Signs and symptoms of narcissistic personality disorder and the severity of symptoms vary. People with the disorder can:

• Have an exaggerated sense of self-importance
• Have a sense of entitlement and require constant, excessive admiration
• Expect to be recognized as superior even without achievements that warrant it
• Exaggerate achievements and talents
• Be preoccupied with fantasies about success, power, brilliance, beauty or the perfect mate
• Believe they are superior and can only associate with equally special people
• Monopolize conversations and belittle or look down on people they perceive as inferior
• Expect special favors and unquestioning compliance with their expectations
• Take advantage of others to get what they want
• Have an inability or unwillingness to recognize the needs and feelings of others
• Be envious of others and believe others envy them
• Behave in an arrogant or haughty manner, coming across as conceited, boastful and pretentious
• Insist on having the best of everything — for instance, the best car or office

 

[jtr1962]

Yep. I've noticed the same. For what it's worth narcissistic personality disorder leads exactly to the kinds of brutal dictatorships I mentioned under the right circumstances. Thank goodness for our system of checks and balances, at least so far. Give Trump another term though, and he might find ways around those. Remember Hitler came to power in a strong democracy.

 

[Handruin]

Yep. I've noticed the same. For what it's worth narcissistic personality disorder leads exactly to the kinds of brutal dictatorships I mentioned under the right circumstances. Thank goodness for our system of checks and balances, at least so far. Give Trump another term though, and he might find ways around those. Remember Hitler came to power in a strong democracy.

I also have concerns that if he does not win another term, he will do his best to be like an abusive spouse, abusing to the nation. He may likely take down anything and making things as bad as he can on his way out in spite. This is what the country elected and we have to all deal with it. Unfortunately Biden isn't much to write home about either.

Everything happening with covid and how it's affecting people's livelihood is a real example of how messed up our entire system and economy are. If Warren's proposed medicare-for-all seemed alarming to folks for costing around $20.5 trillion over 10 years ($2 trillion a year). We've basically given that to the citizens in stimulus in the matter of months and likely more than that amount coming again soon. Having healthcare covered for all is especially relevant with covid.

 

[Handruin]

You know it's bad when Fox news has negative comments and reactions to Trump taking hydroxychloroquine...

 

[jtr1962]

I also have concerns that if he does not win another term, he will do his best to be like an abusive spouse, abusing to the nation. He may likely take down anything and making things as bad as he can on his way out in spite. This is what the country elected and we have to all deal with it. Unfortunately Biden isn't much to write home about either.

Everything happening with covid and how it's affecting people's livelihood is a real example of how messed up our entire system and economy are. If Warren's proposed medicare-for-all seemed alarming to folks for costing around $20.5 trillion over 10 years ($2 trillion a year). We've basically given that to the citizens in stimulus in the matter of months and likely more than that amount coming again soon. Having healthcare covered for all is especially relevant with covid.

Totally agree with everything. Biden is better than Trump in the way a glass of lukewarm milk is better than sour milk but seriously, what an uninspiring choice. The Democrats complain about Trump winning, but maybe if they ran and picked better people in the primaries this wouldn't have happened. In any case, I think Biden's VP pick is going to really matter here given the high likelihood he won't be able to finish out his term.

I can easily see Trump destroying anything he can between election day and January 20 if he loses. Heck, he might even try to get us into a military conflict with China or Russia just to hand his successor even more shit to deal with, as if this virus and the deep recession/possible depression on the way isn't already enough.

Yeah, given what this is costing us, Medicare-for-all seems a bargain by comparison. The problem is the opponents never look at the other side of the ledger. Besides people not dying of preventable conditions because they can't afford to see doctors, companies will no longer have health insurance bills for their employees. That money can directly fund Medicare for all. In essence, despite the sticker shock at the price tag, overall we might be spending less on healthcare for better results. The only difference is more healthcare dollars will go to the government instead of to private insurance companies. I don't see what the difference is but the GOP has a fundamental problem with stuff like that. If a stupid corporation makes money they're happy, but if it costs less for government to provide the same service they see it as more big government.

 

[Handruin]

Totally agree with everything. Biden is better than Trump in the way a glass of lukewarm milk is better than sour milk but seriously, what an uninspiring choice. The Democrats complain about Trump winning, but maybe if they ran and picked better people in the primaries this wouldn't have happened. In any case, I think Biden's VP pick is going to really matter here given the high likelihood he won't be able to finish out his term.

I can easily see Trump destroying anything he can between election day and January 20 if he loses. Heck, he might even try to get us into a military conflict with China or Russia just to hand his successor even more shit to deal with, as if this virus and the deep recession/possible depression on the way isn't already enough.

Yeah, given what this is costing us, Medicare-for-all seems a bargain by comparison. The problem is the opponents never look at the other side of the ledger. Besides people not dying of preventable conditions because they can't afford to see doctors, companies will no longer have health insurance bills for their employees. That money can directly fund Medicare for all. In essence, despite the sticker shock at the price tag, overall we might be spending less on healthcare for better results. The only difference is more healthcare dollars will go to the government instead of to private insurance companies. I don't see what the difference is but the GOP has a fundamental problem with stuff like that. If a stupid corporation makes money they're happy, but if it costs less for government to provide the same service they see it as more big government.

Cynically my opinion on Biden winning the nomination is because it fits the DNC narrative of wanting a moderate candidate. There is so much money in the DNC that I honestly believe the DNC would rather have Trump than say Bernie/Warren/etc who are progressives. Their wealth will persist under Trump as much as it would under Biden, but not some of the progressive candidates.

I like this point from AOC when it comes to taxing the rich.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1127270688925134849

 

[jtr1962]

Cynically my opinion on Biden winning the nomination is because it fits the DNC narrative of wanting a moderate candidate. There is so much money in the DNC that I honestly believe the DNC would rather have Trump than say Bernie/Warren/etc who are progressives. Their wealth will persist under Trump as much as it would under Biden, but not some of the progressive candidates.

I like this point from AOC when it comes to taxing the rich.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1127270688925134849

View attachment 1488

You're probably right. A lot of Democrats are hypocrites where they might do stuff like give lip service to climate change, but are driven everywhere in limos, have huge houses, and constantly fly. Of course they don't want a true progressive to come to power because it might knock one zero off their net worth. Never mind that they would still be worth many multiples of what you or I will make in our entire lives. The reason for taxing the very wealthy is because no good comes from having multibillionaires. Millionaires are fine, and that's a just reward if you produce a good or service people need. But really, how much money do people need? I've told many people if I was worth even $5 million, I would never want to work another day in my life. Our tax system should just prevent people from becoming super rich because as AOC mentions, no good comes of it.

 

[jtr1962]

It looks like my cat caught it. She's fine other than for some very strange side effects.

 

[Handruin]

Your cat got covid?

 

[jtr1962]

Your cat got covid?

Of course not. It's just a little humor. I wanted to photoshop bat wings on her as well, but I couldn't get the end result to look credible.

Cats can actually get covid from humans but my understanding is they can't pass it to humans and they don't show severe symptoms:

CDC Newsroom

Press releases, advisories, telebriefings, transcripts and archives.

www.cdc.gov

Can Pets Get Coronavirus (COVID-19)? – Health Essentials from Cleveland Clinic

With all the worry about the coronavirus (COVID-19), you might also be concerned about if your pet can get (or spread) the virus. Our expert helps answer your questions.

health.clevelandclinic.org

 

[Chewy509]

So, if President Trump contracts Coronavirus, will he or others ever admit to fact that he contradicted it despite being on the anti-viral or not?

Also at what dosage is he taking it? IIRC, hydroxychloroquine is given at different dosages depending on usage...

 

[Newtun]

...at what dosage is he taking it? IIRC, hydroxychloroquine is given at different dosages depending on usage...

Or is Trump lying about that, too?

 

[Chewy509]

Just looked it up, for Hydroxychloroquine 200mg tablets, recommended is:

Rheumatoid arthritis : 2-3 tablets per day.
SLE and DLE : 2-4 tablets per day.
Treatment of Malaria : 4 tablets initially, 8 tablets 8hrs later, then 2 tablets per day.
Control of Malaria Symptoms: 2 tablets per week.

Max dose is 1000mg per day, otherwise overdose symptoms will occur.

Side effects:
• nausea • vomiting • diarrhoea • abdominal cramps • loss of appetite • muscle weakness • dizziness • ringing in the ears • headache • nervousness • skin rash and itching • hair loss

Severe side effects:
• visual disturbances • any hearing loss • frequent fevers, severe chills, bruising, sore throat or mouth ulcers (these may be signs of blood reactions) • More severe symptoms of hypoglycaemia, including disorientation, seizures, fits or convulsions and loss of consciousness • nightmares • abnormal behaviour such as delusions, hallucinations and feeling agitated • suicidal behaviour • movement problems, such uncontrolled movements, stiffness or tremors • wide spread rash with blisters, with or without fever, which can indicate a severe drug induced allergic reaction. It can involve blood changes and internal organs.

Source: https://www.ebs.tga.gov.au/ebs/picmi/picmirepository.nsf/PICMI?OpenForm&t=&q=hydroxychloroquine
https://www.ebs.tga.gov.au/ebs/picmi/picmirepository.nsf/pdf?OpenAgent&id=CP-2012-CMI-02572-1

 

[Handruin]

Given Trumps history of making up things and so many false claims, it's not believable that he's taking this medicine. Even if he is and contracts covid, I doubt he would say either way. The US would only know if he became hospitalized but not if he contracted it. He's also not wearing masks like is recommended/required for the rest of us despite have a confirmed positive staffer.

 

[jtr1962]

Brazil is now in the number two spot for number of cases. Number six for number of deaths but that's rising so rapidly I'd say they'll be at number two in less than two weeks. They may even ultimately give the US a run for its money for the top spot. So much for the hopes the virus doesn't spread as quickly in hot climates. Apparently it does.

 

[snowhiker]

Brazil is now in the number two spot for number of cases. Number six for number of deaths but that's rising so rapidly I'd say they'll be at number two in less than two weeks. They may even ultimately give the US a run for its money for the top spot. So much for the hopes the virus doesn't spread as quickly in hot climates. Apparently it does.

Looks like Russia and Brazil are vying for the number two spot. Brazil has 7x the reported deaths as Russia though, per the JHU site.

Nobody knows the complete methodology any of these countries and hospitals are using to tie deaths to COVID-19. Was COVID-19 the; Direct/only cause? Most likely cause? Partial cause? Ancillary cause? Minor cause? Did not cause but was present at death? Listed to get more COVID-19 funding, re-reimbursements, grants, etc???

It's not even apples to oranges. It's apples to batteries.

The average number of new infections has been constant for the last six weeks with no end in sight. Slight uptick the last few days, hopefully not a sign of things to come.

 

[jtr1962]

Yes, it looks like the number of new cases is still rising linearly worldwide but linear is far better than exponential. I also noticed the increase in the number of deaths actually is slowing down. You can clearly see it here:



We're probably getting better at treating this, which is good news. Until a vaccine is available, slowing the spread and better treatments are all we have.

 

[Tea]

I reckon Trump's doctor - who will be perfectly well aware that he has to do whatever Trump says or be yet another White House sacking - will have indeed supplied the anti-malaria drug, but not being completely stupid, he will have had someone fix him up with a special supply of, say, 2mg tablets. Trump can take one of those every day - "Yes Mr President, these tablets contain Hydroxychloroquine" - and be perfectly safe because he's getting 1/100th of the usual minimum dose.

 

[Handruin]

How are you doing Tea? Is Tannin Treating you well?

 

[Chewy509]

Take this, as you will:

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...d-to-increase-in-covid-19-deaths-heart-risks/

 

[Handruin]

It's classic Trump move to spout BS like this Hydroxychloroquine, claim it's significance, and then the rest of the people have to continue to try and defend/disprove it months later while a dozen other news claims have been made.

A buddy of mine also sent me this:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

 

[Chewy509]

Now with restrictions being lifted here, and having the ability to get out for non-essential things, it would appear that most people have forgotten or don't wish to consider that social distancing rules (keep 1.5m distance) still apply. While I acknowledge risk of community transmission to be extremely low**, the social distancing aspect will also have benefit for other conditions like the common cold and flu... (and we are now entering our traditional cold/flu session).

Case in point, went to Ikea last weekend to get a new desk chair, lifts are clearly marked that no more than 1 person (or 1 group of related people) are to use the lift at once, saw 4 non-related groups (12 people) enter the left at once. Saw a mum and dad (with their 2mth old infant), the father was touching all items in the store, running hands along hand rails, and then caressing his infant without first washing his hands... (As I said, while the risk is low for COVID, the flu/common cold can have a nasty effect on infants), and that the weren't keeping distance from others...

The other big contention here at the moment, is that all borders between states are closed (one can still cross borders for a list of valid reasons)... Some state governments are calling for opening borders, unfortunately, those same states will appear to have new daily cases from community transmission, and coupled with personal experience seeing how people are now acting, I do have some concern that a second wave will hit hard.

** In the state of QLD, we only have 17 active (known) cases: https://www.health.qld.gov.au/news-...ueensland-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-update41 (lastest update from this morning, indicates only 6 active cases: https://www.qld.gov.au/health/condi...oronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics ). State population = 5.1million.
** Current restrictions: https://www.health.qld.gov.au/syste...confinement-movement-gathering-direction/help

 

[Newtun]

It's classic Trump move to spout BS like this Hydroxychloroquine, claim it's significance, and then the rest of the people have to continue to try and defend/disprove it months later while a dozen other news claims have been made.

The Trump Regime:​

Revenge Against the Nerds

​

 

[Tea]

Getting on just fine thankyou Handy. We are living in Tasmania now. In the Huon Valley, which we have always liked. There is a page of pictures of the district here: http://tannin.net.au/browsestate.php?state=7&substate=3 - not all from the Huon Valley, but most are. You'll get the idea.

 

[Newtun]

Most COVID cases don’t spread virus—it’s the superspreaders we need to stop

Mounting evidence on superspreaders suggests a shift in thinking about social distancing.

arstechnica.com

 

[Tea]

Now with restrictions being lifted here, and having the ability to get out for non-essential things, it would appear that most people have forgotten or don't wish to consider that social distancing rules (keep 1.5m distance) still apply. While I acknowledge risk of community transmission to be extremely low**, the social distancing aspect will also have benefit for other conditions like the common cold and flu... (and we are now entering our traditional cold/flu session).

Case in point, went to Ikea last weekend to get a new desk chair, lifts are clearly marked that no more than 1 person (or 1 group of related people) are to use the lift at once, saw 4 non-related groups (12 people) enter the left at once. Saw a mum and dad (with their 2mth old infant), the father was touching all items in the store, running hands along hand rails, and then caressing his infant without first washing his hands... (As I said, while the risk is low for COVID, the flu/common cold can have a nasty effect on infants), and that the weren't keeping distance from others...

Our experience here is that people have generally relaxed, but in the main retain courtesy and reasonable distancing habits. A minority - nearly all young - are lax about it, and a few are just poxheads. But only a few.

The really weird thing is that it is the NSW government which is carrying on like a spoilt child, and it is NSW which is by far the worst state. All of the smaller states (population-wise) are at or near zero cases, with all or nearly all of the remaining few returning travellers in quarantine, not community transmissions. Victoria and Queensland, especially Victoria, still have some unsolved issues, and NSW is the problem child. But it's NSW that is throwing its toys out of the pram! Still, this is the state which gave us the Ruby Princess, so what did we expect?

No active cases at all here in Tasmania. Every one has either died or got better. We are 100% Corona-free (so far as anyone knows). Thanks to prompt action by the state government (which was the first one to close borders) we essentially got only three lots of infection: (a) Overseas students who sneaked their way around the laughably weak federal government China travel ban and came to Hobart. (b) Same thing in Launceston. Both clusters were swiftly contained, through a combination of competent action and dumb luck. (c) The North-West Hospital disaster, which started with the damn Ruby Princess, and snowballed because of (so far as we can tell) weak and incompetent leadership on the part of hospital authorities in that end of the state, coupled with poor follow-up from the state authorities in Hobart and/or Launceston. Essentially, it seems that the local authorities asked for PPE and training, were largely ignored by head office, and then just shrugged their shoulders and carried on with business as usual, leading to all sorts of bad practices, and lots of infections. There seems to have been no serious attempt to force head office action on the part of the local admin people - their senior staff came to them and said "this is really dangerous" and they said something like "Well, I've filled out the forms, there is nothing else I can do now except wait for someone in Hobart to remember we exist. Just do the best you can." Meanwhile, the Hobart-based administrators ignored the North West's needs and obsessed about Hobart, occasionally remembering about Launceston. I.e., business as usual. Tasmania works that way in 2020 and it worked that way in 1920. Maybe 1820 as well for all I know.

 

[snowhiker]

Brazil is now in the number two spot for number of cases. Number six for number of deaths but that's rising so rapidly I'd say they'll be at number two in less than two weeks. They may even ultimately give the US a run for its money for the top spot. So much for the hopes the virus doesn't spread as quickly in hot climates. Apparently it does.

Unfortunately for Brazil it seems you are correct jtr.

Huge spike in the graph on 17 June with the overall trend going up as well. Unless things turn around, by the end of July Brazil will tragically be #1 in number of infections and #1 in COVID-19 deaths.

Pandemic update for Arizona, USA:

Almost nobody wearing a mask around here. Maybe 10-25% of people in businesses. Except for Costco where masks are mandatory and they were giving them out to folks that walked up to the door without one. TP and paper towels in stock at Costco but each with a limit of one. Even those they have a huge pile of both.

I get the feeling that wearing a mask will be made mandatory by the Governor soon as Arizona saw a huge spike in COVID-19 positive tests.

Grocery stores mostly restocked. TP and paper towels in stock with no limits, but stoooooooooopidly high priced. Still several of the shelves were sparse but the staples; rice, beans, flour, sugar, meat, chicken, eggs, dairy, bread, and water were available. Lots of cleaning products still unavailable however. Interestingly, soup and ramon noddles are still available, but most of their shelves are empty.

Stay Safe.

 

[time]

The stats for Arizona don't look good - the number of cases doubled in the last fortnight.

Brazil is now in the number two spot for number of cases. Number six for number of deaths but that's rising so rapidly I'd say they'll be at number two in less than two weeks. They may even ultimately give the US a run for its money for the top spot.

Don't worry, I don't think the USA will let someone else take the #1 ranking ...

What has surprised me is that regardless of what government leaders say, most citizens have sufficient self-preservation instincts to slow the spread of the disease. For example, it looks like herd immunity in the USA will now take more than a decade, whereas with no behavioural changes it might have been 3 months (+ a few million deaths, obviously).

 

[Handruin]

The amount of disinformation and lack of top-level leadership is staggering here, so you're right, the US will likely keep the #1 spot for a long time. This is what we get for electing this idiot and all the people appointed around him. It's quite telling (yet again) given trump having a rally in a known hot spot in Tulsa, OK and no mandates for wearing a mask when people are in close proximity (but Muh Freedoms). Then he makes comments such as:

"When you do testing to that extent you're going to find more people, you're going to find cases," Mr. Trump said."So I said to my people, 'Slow the testing down, please.' They test and they test. We got tests for people who don't know what's going on."

Only now to retract this by suggesting it was a joke or satirical like clockwork on everything retarded he says. Doesn't matter either way, it's tasteless and disrespectful to all the people who have lost someone locally and globally. Nice to know he really only cared about having a large turnout to appeal to his narcissistic disorder and yet thankfully the turnout was small. He is the pandemic.

 

[time]

Is it a coincidence that all the US states where the disease is accelerating seem to have Republican governors? I couldn't find any exceptions.

I'm not trying to imply the converse, that Democrat governors have all done a good job containing it. I suspect that the relaxation of restrictions may have been a little too enthusiastic in Republican states - is it, like Trump, a question of poor leadership? An automatic disregard for scientific opinion?

Perhaps the more densely populated states were hit first, and they tend to elect Democrat governors? So people in the other states have been able to convince themselves that the risk of catching the virus, let alone becoming seriously ill, has been greatly exaggerated?

I guess this is where leadership actually makes a difference.

 

[Handruin]

That's a valid question and undoubtably an arguable and contentious topic. The vast majority of the Republican party bows to trump for so many different reasons but mostly for self-preservation and their own agendas. There are plenty of observable accounts that if a republican political member becomes contrary to trumps objectives or narrative they will be fired/criticized/bullied/ostracized from the party, like for example Mitt Romney. This bullying nature of trump really just puts the entire conservative party in line with him and his agenda which is terrible for diversity of strategy and best interests to the American citizens and also allies and the rest of the world.

There has been a continuous blame game of back and forth between the federal guidelines and state management issues. There have been so many contentious politics when the states criticize trump related to covid management and it has helped no one on either side. Trump has proven time and again to be clueless with this virus and and not taking his advisors recommendations regarding keeping people safe. He only cares about himself and his re-election so the driving narrative has to show opening up the country, building jobs, no masks, the virus has gone away, etc. Anyone can observe this happening if you focus on the events and discussions from advisers like Dr. Fauci and Dr Birx. Both renowned in their fields and even they have to be very careful how they deliver their public guidance because trump has an election coming up and he wants nothing to get in the way even if it means avoiding the good advice of these advisors. This is why both of them have been phased out and are rarely part of the covid task force updates. They aren't giving the "good" news that trump wants to fabricate. The Fauci/Birx advisory isn't even a D vs R issue. They aren't being political for one side or the other...it's maddening. My point being, if anyone is R or D, don't even listen to the media, just listen to Fauci/Birx and follow their advice...but now we can't unless you seek them out elsewhere.

As for individual state leadership of Democrat vs Republican, I'll offer my own home state of Massachusetts as an example. Our gov Baker is Republican in a state which is highly Democratic-leaning. I don't always agree with him but no person ever will. However I feel he's done a good job at managing the crisis and trying to get my state back to a good place. He doesn't seem to pander to trump and he's factual and to the point on topics and agendas regarding the health and safety of the people in my state. He's doing his job and I feel regardless of D vs R I want him to stay and continue doing his job managing my state back to a good place with covid.

The more dense areas like New York City also tend to be hubs for travel to large areas of the country and also the rest of the world, so the fact that places like NYC and even Boston had initial high counts and surges of cases seems less to me to be a (R) vs (D) and more just a logistics thing. I know that Gov Cuomo from New York has a lot of people divided for various political reasons throughout his tenure so I can't really speak to those nuances. From what I've seen during his handling of the state and covid I feel like he has set a good example and done a decent job despite the confusing and mismanagement of the federal level. There has been a constant back and forth between Cuomo and trump saying states have to deal with things on their own to flipping back and saying trump can open a state through his own powers if Gov Cuomo decided not to open. The continuous bickering is stupid and not in the best interest of the people or the state. Now is this an example of good management? Is this working because Cuomo followed better advice? Is it simply because it caters Democrats in a Democratic state versus Republican? That would likely need to be its own long discussion to cover the various angles of political agenda. None the less when I listen to Cuomo and compare it to the advice received from Fauci, the two narratives overlap and offer consistency. That would be my argument to say Cuomo is managing this well and doing the best he can given the controversial political climate. It's not that I have any love for him as a Gov. or that he is in the Democratic party. I am trying to look at it as following guidelines to help people be safe.

To your earlier point about states that are Republican and now having surges...well the information I've seen from their narrative suggests they are in line with trump's and not Fauci's. Hence...Tulsa, OK and the rally for example. Why no mask mandate? Why are politicians deflecting to Biden saying how small and lame his rally was in comparison? Why are they not focusing on the safety of the people and limiting the number of attendees and making people stay at safe distances that would all be in line with advice from Fauci or almost any doctor? Why is trump saying testing should be slowed down and then later retract this to say is was a joke? This is all so fucking stupid.

The denial of the risks from covid at the federal and presidential level have been appalling since the discussion even began back in Dec/Jan. It's difficult to say if acting sooner would have made a dramatic difference but I'd like to believe it could have. At the very least, accepting that the country needed to do something soon and stop with the denial and blame game which has been trump's go-to in every situation that challenges his administration. This blame game trickles down to the majority of the republican party as well. It's always blame someone else and not take responsibility for what is here and now. We've seen the discussions early on (and even in this thread) trying to label the virus as the "Kung Flu" or "Wuhan Virus". That went away for a while and now it's now resurfacing again as a distraction from how bad things are. I'm in no way absolving China from any of this but making this label trend in the naming the virus for a location is considered racist and a driving conservative narrative from the trump administration. It's not helpful to anyone when the focus should be on tightening up a recovery plan and getting the US back to health in all states. Get more testing available and continue to keep hospitals supplied with PPE, staff, etc to continue to manage. Yes China should be held accountable to their part in all this and they should be investigated when the time is right. That time doesn't have to be now, the treatment and management of the people should be priority number one.

Otherwise yes I believe good leadership matters and the US is completely void of it from the federal level and in some following R states. We are void of it because it's not in the presidents driving agenda for continued power and re-election.

 

[Tea]

A tale of both contrast and similarity here, Doug. We too have had a leadership vacuum at national level, but at least it's been a genuine vacuum, a lack of leadership, not downright evil destructive stuff in the mould of Trump and Bolsonaro.

The state leaders, however, have been very good indeed. Dan Andrew (Premier of Victoria) pretty much led the nation through the worst of the crisis, along with Gladys Berejiklian (NSW). Time and again, Prime Minister Morrison would insist on doing nothing until the premiers forced action on him. It wasn't just those two (leaders of the two largest states), others like Peter Gutwein (Tasmania) and Mark McGowan (Western Australia) pushed Morrison into doing the right thing again and again. (This is the same Prime Minister who ran off to have a holiday in Hawaii at the peak of the worst-ever bushfire crises.)

Result: one state still has problems in some migrant communities with poor English skills who ignored or didn't understand the message about social distancing (~40 new cases a day at present) but they are working very hard on it and should see results very soon; one state (Queensland) is on the cusp of complete success with just a handful of cases remaining, one state (NSW) is midway between those two, and all of the others are completely Covid free. (I'm not counting overseas travellers isolated under guard while they quarantine.)

Not that I'm not being party political here. The state premiers represent both main parties, the Labor ones (Vic., WA, Qld) have led successfully and mostly very well, the Liberal ones (SA, Tas, Qld) have been equally competent. It's not about the party, it's about the quality of the leader.

 

[DrunkenBastard]

Looks like the US is seeing significant spikes in infections in areas that re-opened early. Also possible that the mass protests also increased things. Apparently quite a few states you would get mocked for wearing a mask in public....

 

[Newtun]

I've even heard rumors of young "adults" holding "COVID parties", with at least one partycipant having tested positive, and a cash prize for the next guest to get it.

And in a similar vein, NY partygoers get subpoenas after stonewalling COVID-19 contact tracers.