Something Random

[jtr1962]

Avg cost of car ownership is $10k per year? Where does that number come from? I've never come close to that number or know of anyone else that has.

It's actually worse than that now:

What Is the Total Cost of Owning a Car? - NerdWallet

Your total car costs include a lot more than your monthly loan payment. Use NerdWallet’s cost of ownership calculator to see how much you’re really spending.

www.nerdwallet.com

The average monthly cost of owning a car has surpassed $1,000.

The figures are from AAA. A car, even a decent used one, would easily cost me over $10K. Just the insurance alone would be $5K+, given that I'd be considered a new driver. Remember you have insurance, repairs, maintenance, fuel, tickets, interest on car loans (almost nobody can afford to buy a car with cash these days). If you're in a city and don't have a driveway, add in the cost of parking, which can exceed $500 a month in NYC.

For what vehicles cost I just don't see the value. If a person's time might be valued at, say $25/hour (the average wage), that car costing them $1,000 a month would have to save 40+ hours over taking public transit/walking/biking just to break even. I'd walk 10 miles each way to work before I'd pay that kind of money. Point of fact I kind of did in the past. I used to walk both ways to the subway station each day (6 miles total) to save the double car fare. Not an issue now because double-fare zones were eliminated when we went to Metrocards.

Unfortunately in their situation a new battery replacement is far, far more costly compared to the value of the car so he isn't going to replace it. It's just too old with too many miles to bother.

The vast majority of vehicles, whether ICE or EV, aren't worth putting any money into once they hit a quarter million miles. Your friend more than got his money's worth with his two Priuses.

With battery life you need to go by averages. I'm sure there are exceptions like Sed mentioned, but by and large EV batteries are lasting hundreds of thousands of miles. Some car manufacturers are saying they may well outlast the vehicle. Remember once a battery is no longer useful in a EV because the capacity drops under, say, 75% of new, it can have decades in a second life as grid storage. Eventually it'll need to be recycled of course, but by the time we have large numbers of dead EV batteries the ecosystem for that will be in place.

 

[Handruin]

It's actually worse than that now:

What Is the Total Cost of Owning a Car? - NerdWallet

Your total car costs include a lot more than your monthly loan payment. Use NerdWallet’s cost of ownership calculator to see how much you’re really spending.

www.nerdwallet.com

The average monthly cost of owning a car has surpassed $1,000.

The figures are from AAA. A car, even a decent used one, would easily cost me over $10K. Just the insurance alone would be $5K+, given that I'd be considered a new driver. Remember you have insurance, repairs, maintenance, fuel, tickets, interest on car loans (almost nobody can afford to buy a car with cash these days). If you're in a city and don't have a driveway, add in the cost of parking, which can exceed $500 a month in NYC.

For what vehicles cost I just don't see the value. If a person's time might be valued at, say $25/hour (the average wage), that car costing them $1,000 a month would have to save 40+ hours over taking public transit/walking/biking just to break even. I'd walk 10 miles each way to work before I'd pay that kind of money. Point of fact I kind of did in the past. I used to walk both ways to the subway station each day (6 miles total) to save the double car fare. Not an issue now because double-fare zones were eliminated when we went to Metrocards.

The vast majority of vehicles, whether ICE or EV, aren't worth putting any money into once they hit a quarter million miles. Your friend more than got his money's worth with his two Priuses.

With battery life you need to go by averages. I'm sure there are exceptions like Sed mentioned, but by and large EV batteries are lasting hundreds of thousands of miles. Some car manufacturers are saying they may well outlast the vehicle. Remember once a battery is no longer useful in a EV because the capacity drops under, say, 75% of new, it can have decades in a second life as grid storage. Eventually it'll need to be recycled of course, but by the time we have large numbers of dead EV batteries the ecosystem for that will be in place.

I see, I didn't realize that number was including the car payment. Also, given the huge range of prices for cars, a median vs avg might be more useful as I'm sure super expensive vehicles make the avg seem quite larger for the common folk buying cars, etc. I totally get all those other items being factors in monthly/annual costs but didn't know the $10K amount was including the loan/lease until you clarified.

I get when you're in a large city that walking to places makes a lot of sense but also, walking 6-10 miles a day is a huge cost in other ways. The avg healthy person walks maybe 3 mph, so you're spending 2-4 hours a day just walking. Very few can afford doing that for personal reasons.

I think we're in total agreement with the batteries and hybrid. My point is aligned with yours; I was making the point to Sed that this was an example where the battery was quite reliable in more than one Prius and long-lasting beyond the useful life of the car...and it's not even a LFP chemistry which I believe would be superior in safety and reliability. I agree they got their money's worth out of their car.

I do believe current battery tech and chemistries are reliable and I have been following LFP's for potential home use for whole-house backups. I think this chemistry is a great fit for home use and could easily last 15+ years even with a decent amount of cycling.

 

[jtr1962]

Also, given the huge range of prices for cars, a median vs avg might be more useful as I'm sure super expensive vehicles make the avg seem quite larger for the common folk buying cars, etc.

Yes, I'd like to see median versus average myself. My brother actually gets classic car insurance on one of his vehicles, which comes to a few hundred a year, and does all of his repairs. His cars are obviously long paid for. I'd be shocked if his older cars cost him more than $2,000 a year total. Median versus average is a better indicator. Sort of like how average savings obscure the fact a lot of 60 year olds have no savings because you have a small percentage who are worth high 6 or 7 figures.

I get when you're in a large city that walking to places makes a lot of sense but also, walking 6-10 miles a day is a huge cost in other ways. The avg healthy person walks maybe 3 mph, so you're spending 2-4 hours a day just walking. Very few can afford doing that for personal reasons.

To be fair if you're going to travel that many miles under your own steam a bike or e-bike makes far more sense than walking. I walked to/from the subway simply because there would have been no safe place to store my bike while I was at work. I could have ridden the bike all 8.5 miles to work, and avoided the subway also, but not when I had to be there at 8 AM. I just can't ride that early in the day. Generally, walking is mostly viable for trips of a mile or less. I walk about 4 to 5 mph, which is somewhat faster than average.

I think we're in total agreement with the batteries and hybrid. My point is aligned with yours; I was making the point to Sed that this was an example where the battery was quite reliable in more than one Prius and long-lasting beyond the useful life of the car...and it's not even a LFP chemistry which I believe would be superior in safety and reliability. I agree they got their money's worth out of their car.

I do believe current battery tech and chemistries are reliable and I have been following LFP's for potential home use for whole-house backups. I think this chemistry is a great fit for home use and could easily last 15+ years even with a decent amount of cycling.

Regarding LFP lifetime, this thread I started on CPF might interest you:

LiFePO4 Aging

I recently came across this study on LiFePO4 aging: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/6/1732 This is a subject I have interest in because in most of my use cases it will take me many decades to reach cycle life. That's especially true in the case of LFP batteries which are good for many...

www.candlepowerforums.com

For home use at more constant temperatures than vehicle use we're probably looking at 25+ years to 80% capacity. For vehicles you still might get 20 calendar years, depending upon how much cycling you do. Yes, LFP is virtually fireproof. Shorts are about the only thing which can start a fire but any decent BMS will protect against that. Sodium-ion promises to be even better, with 5K+ cycle life, better low-temperature performance. No idea of the calendar life yet, but being that it's more stable than any flavor of lithium, probably decades.

 

[sedrosken]

I still want to see things improve before it's really catching my interest, and even then, I'm keeping my RAV4 until it's dead.

 

[jtr1962]

That's fine. Honestly, you're not in much of position to afford a new vehicle soon anyway. Let other people get the kinks worked out. That's one reason I'm not an early adopter of much stuff, unless it's fairly inexpensive.